The economist assessed the scenarios for the development of the Russian economy in the next three years

In the next three years, the Bank of Russia will continue to pursue an inflation targeting policy. The key rate will remain the main instrument of monetary policy. This point of view was expressed by economist Lazar Badalov in an interview with Izvestia.

"For investment growth, the key rate should be below 10%"

Alexander Kalinin, head of Opora Russia, talks about tax benefits, the fate of the self—employed after 2028, and how to improve loan conditions.

"This approach causes some controversy, but despite all the criticism, the Central Bank continues to adhere to the opinion about the effectiveness of the chosen model, while not refusing to make certain policy adjustments. For example, in addition to the rate, the Central Bank began to apply macroprudential limits," the expert explains.

The basic, disinflationary and pro-inflationary scenarios presented by the Central Bank do not differ much from each other, says Badalov. Based on the results of the period from 2026 to 2028, the key rate, the ruble exchange rate, the cost of oil and other indicators will be in the range of these scenarios.

"But the risk scenario assumes a crisis situation, and an acute and global one at that. Therefore, the chances of its implementation are low," the economist is convinced.

He recalls that the Central Bank expects a reduction in the key rate to a neutral 8% in the next 2-3 years. At the same time, inflation should approach the target.

"But given that over the years of the Central Bank's targeting policy, it has not been possible to achieve inflation targets so often, this period is unlikely to be an exception," the expert emphasizes.

However, the key rate may fall below 10% next year, which does not exclude Failures, because at the moment there are many industries suffering from high interest rates. Read more about scenarios for the development of the situation in the Russian economy in the Izvestia article:

A look into the future: The Central Bank presented four scenarios for the development of the economy