Experts assessed the prospects for reducing the key rate

Financial market experts have different views on the prospects for lowering the key interest rate. Some point to the market's readiness for rapid easing, while others warn of the risks of inflationary pressure. Alexander Zaitsev, CEO of Atomic Capital, and Olga Veretennikova, Vice President of Borsell analytical company, told Izvestia about this on September 4.

"The most obvious scenario that is currently being viewed in relation to the decision of the Bank of Russia in September is a reduction in the key rate. Moreover, there is a feeling in the market that the tight monetary policy has been in place for too long, so it needs to be eased in the short and medium term in order to support investment activity," Zaitsev said.

In addition, the market is ready for an early reduction in the key rate and is striving to fix the yield at the level of 13-14% per annum, which is significantly lower than the current key rate, for 2-2.5 years ahead. Institutional investors see economic feasibility in such purchases, that is, they expect the key rate to reach the designated levels soon.

"Thus, there is a global market understanding that the key rate will go down quite quickly and in conditions of possible secondary inflation, as well as government incentives for companies listed on the stock market, it is worth keeping money not in cash, but in assets," Zaitsev concluded.

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According to the vice president of the Borsell analytical company, the range of 14-15% by the end of the year looks more realistic: this will give the economy a "breath", but will not cause sharp inflationary jumps. In the long term, Veretennikova noted, 4-6% can be considered a normal level, but it will not be possible to achieve it quickly.

"In the second half of the year, a gradual rate cut should really revive lending activity. Banks will be able to offer business loans and mortgages on less burdensome terms, which will primarily affect pent—up demand — retail loans and investment projects of companies will begin to recover," the expert said.

Veretennikova also noted the real threat of recession in the context of "technical stagnation." The weak dynamics of GDP over the past two quarters indicates the depletion of domestic demand and limited exports by structural factors. The expert warns that without additional incentives, the economy could move from stagnation to recession as early as 2025.

Measures to reduce the key rate alone are not enough. An integrated approach is needed to support the economy: stimulating investment through government guarantees and preferential financing programs, expanding infrastructure projects, and developing the domestic capital market.

"It remains important to pursue a policy of targeted support for the population, which strengthens consumer demand. In addition, structural reforms — improving the business climate, removing regulatory barriers, and supporting technological sovereignty — should work in tandem with monetary measures. Only a combination of these tools will make it possible not only to avoid recession, but also to achieve a stable growth trajectory," Veretennikova concluded.

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On the same day, the head of Sberbank, German Gref, expressed the hope that the Central Bank would not allow the country's economy to enter a recession. According to him, the cooling of the economy continues in Russia. So, the first quarter of 2025 can be considered as technical stagnation. Sberbank estimates that the key rate at the end of this year will be 14%.

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