The Central Bank predicted a rate of 10.5–11.5% in 2026 in a disinflationary scenario.

The Central Bank of Russia has predicted a range of key interest rates in 2026 at the level of 10.5–11.5% in the case of a disinflationary scenario of economic development. This was announced on September 2 on the regulator's website in the section "Main directions of the unified state monetary policy of the Bank of Russia for 2026 and the period 2027-2028".

"As a result, inflationary pressure is decreasing more rapidly and steadily, which allows the Bank of Russia to pursue a more lenient monetary policy than in the baseline scenario. In this scenario, the average key rate will be 10.5–11.5% per annum in 2026," the statement said.

In addition, in the baseline scenario, it is expected that with a gradual decrease in inflationary pressure, the average key rate in 2026 will be in the range of 12-13%, and in 2027 and 2028 it will reach 7.5–8.5%. The Central Bank clarified that such an outcome is "most likely, but not predetermined" due to the presence of external conditions and processes within the country that affect the indicators.

However, in the case of a pro—inflationary scenario, the key rate range is expected to be 14-16% in 2026, 10.5–11.5% in 2027, and 8.5—9.5% in 2028.

The obvious is incredible: what will be the Central Bank's key rate by the end of 2025

Experts named possible scenarios

On August 26, private investment consultant Andrey Kochetkov suggested that the Central Bank's rate could drop to 17% at the upcoming meeting of the regulator on September 12. According to him, such a forecast allows us to make the observed dynamics of inflation in the Russian Federation in the last few weeks.

All important news is on the Izvestia channel in the MAX messenger.