In 2025, Russia's oil and gas revenues will fall by 23%

By the end of 2025, Russia's oil and gas revenues will decrease by 23% compared to 2024. This is the conclusion reached by experts from Kasatkin Consulting in their annual review of the production and oilfield services markets. At the same time, according to their forecasts, in 2026 these revenues will grow by 19% compared to 2025.

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According to Dmitry Kasatkin, managing partner of Kasatkin Consulting, a strong ruble and low oil prices are the main reasons for this situation. And in 2026, the ruble will weaken, as well as the situation will improve in connection with the Central Bank's policy, which will become an incentive for the oil and gas industry. We do not include geopolitical changes in the forecast due to high uncertainty, the Izvestia interlocutor notes.

The expert added that he expects the Central Bank's rate to reach 15-16% by the end of 2025, and 10-12% by the end of 2026. At the end of July, the Central Bank had already lowered its key rate from 20% to 18%.

In July, according to the Ministry of Finance, oil and gas revenues amounted to 787.3 billion rubles, which is 27% less than in July 2024. Since the beginning of the year, they have amounted to 5.52 trillion rubles, while for the whole of 2024 — 11.13 trillion rubles. At the same time, the ruble has strengthened by more than 20% since the beginning of the year.

In turn, the Ministry of Economic Development lowered expectations for the price of Russian Urals crude oil from $69.7 to $56 per barrel in its April forecast. In 2026, the agency expects $ 61 per barrel, and in 2027 - $ 63. As for Brent crude, the ministry's experts predict that its price will be $68 per barrel this year and $72 in 2026-2028.

Kasatkin Consulting analysts predict that the negative price environment for the global oil market will continue in the next two years. According to their forecasts, this year the average price for Brent will be $69 per barrel, in 2026 - $70, and only in 2027 prices may rise to $ 75 per barrel.