Trump is sending troops against drug cartels. What you need to know
US President Donald Trump has decided to fight drug cartels militarily. He instructed the Ministry of Defense to prepare options for action and sent 4,000 troops to Latin American countries to demonstrate force. There is growing concern in the region that the United States will launch an invasion. What such a step can lead to is in the Izvestia article.
Why Trump cares about cartels
• In 2020, Donald Trump won the US presidential election largely thanks to promises to fight illegal migration and stop drug trafficking coming from Latin American countries. Although many of Trump's actions cause a mixed reaction from American society, and in some cases even a negative one, the population usually has no questions about these two areas. Whatever Trump does about migrants and drug traffickers is approved by most of the country.
As a result, Trump received carte blanche from voters to take new, more effective measures. One of these unprecedented steps was the declaration of Latin American cartels as terrorist organizations. He awarded this status to such large and notorious gangs as Tren de Aragua and MS-13. At first, this served as an excuse to carry out accelerated deportations without trial. Trump pointedly sent gang members to the largest prison in El Salvador, making it one of the achievements of his second term.
• Now there are more and more signals from various sources in the Trump administration that the president is ready to take the fight against drug trafficking to a new level. The status of terrorist organizations, which has been granted to more than a dozen new cartels and transnational gangs in six months, may become a reason to use military force against them and declare a full-fledged war on criminal groups.
• It is noteworthy that the "Cartel of the Sun" was one of the last to receive terrorist status. In the United States, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is called its head, and many high-ranking officials in the country are accused of running a cartel and drug trafficking. The U.S. Department of Justice has even increased the reward for information leading to Maduro's arrest to $50 million. Although Venezuela has long been an opponent for any US administration, no one had ever put the country's leadership on a par with terrorists before Trump.
• The possible use of military force against drug traffickers is quite an aggressive step for the United States. Trump's predecessors used military personnel in exceptional cases, but obliged them to obey law enforcement agencies. In the 1990s, there was a practice of providing intelligence services to Colombia and Peru so that they could independently strike at suspects. The invasion of Panama in 1989 stands out from this series, when the United States overthrew the country's leader, Manuel Noriega, and charged him with drug trafficking, but then Panama was the first to declare war on Washington.
What is Trump doing
• Officially, the information that Trump really intends to use the military to destroy drug cartels has not been confirmed. However, several American media outlets, citing sources in the White House, began to report on preparations for the deployment of troops. So, The New York Times reported that Trump has already signed a directive to the Pentagon on the beginning of the use of military force against some Latin American drug cartels. The US military has begun to explore options for how they can pursue groups outside the United States.
• According to the newspaper, Trump is also preparing the legal ground for justifying military operations. He has introduced new advisers to the Department of Defense who will be able to find loopholes and avoid congressional authorization, which is usually required to deploy troops outside the United States. Although the department reports to Pete Hegseth, a devoted Trump supporter, the president fears that his orders will not be obeyed if they are interpreted by the military as unacceptable within their competence.
• Bloomberg reported on Trump's next step towards a full-fledged war with cartels. According to him, the US president has sent more than 4,000 sailors and marines to patrol the seas around Latin American countries. So far, this looks like a show of force in the region, but in the future it may have certain consequences that are already causing concern among local leaders.
• In addition, Trump has already deployed more than 10,000 troops near the southern border with Mexico. Although they are mainly engaged in combating illegal migration and assist border guards in logistics, construction and engineering work, this can also be seen as a signal of readiness to fight drug trafficking, as Trump has repeatedly mentioned that he intends to fight Mexican cartels.
What will be the consequences
• Trump's intention to combat drug trafficking with the help of the military is hindered by several circumstances at once. Firstly, it is obvious that such a struggle will have to be waged on the territory of other States, which will be perceived by the world community as an act of aggression, no matter how good the reasons for this may be. Due to historical experience, Latin America is particularly sensitive to the topic of a potential American invasion. Hardly any country in the region, even if it really wants to fight crime on its territory, will be ready to let in US soldiers.
• At the same time, Trump himself came to power on the promise that the US military would not be sent to foreign countries. Since the beginning of his term, there have already been several conflicts in which the United States could theoretically intervene with the use of manpower, but Trump refused to do this to please his constituents. When he finally decided to launch airstrikes against Iran's nuclear facilities, he faced criticism from the camp of his supporters. Trump will have to choose between his isolationist policies and the likely military casualties if he decides to fight drug cartels.
• Even if we imagine that any Latin American country would approve the deployment of a foreign contingent, and the American society would agree with this, the result of this operation would not be at all obvious. Although it is possible to destroy a specific group and its infrastructure, it will still not eliminate organized crime. Some destroyed drug dealers will quickly be replaced by others, since the cost of building a drug trade in Mexico is only $ 60 thousand, and the profit from it will greatly exceed the costs. Individual South American countries have repeatedly engaged the military against gangs, and none of them has won yet.
• The fight against drug cartels is complicated by the fact that they have nothing to do with the opponents that the military is used to. They have no ideology and do not advocate political demands, but only profit from their criminal activities, trying to avoid punishment. It will not be difficult for them to disappear for a while until the danger has passed, after which they will re-establish drug supplies along routes that will not be controlled by the military.
At the same time, even if drug traffickers begin to put up serious resistance, the US military will need to be prepared for new realities. In addition to small arms, large cartels can easily provide themselves with drones and communications equipment that will allow them not only to learn about military movements, but also to launch surprise strikes in response. Gang members will be able to hide in forests and mountains and wage a real guerrilla war, which will lead to heavy losses among the American military. For the United States, this will be a repeat of the Vietnam War, only now their opponent will be much better equipped technically.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
