Russians were told about the prospects of the ruble exchange rate against the background of negotiations between Russia and the United States

The ruble continues to show stability due to a combination of fundamental factors that have already made it the most successful currency of 2025. The monetary policy of the Bank of Russia, continued currency restrictions and trade surplus provide support. These conditions, as well as weak imports and the global weakening of the dollar, have ensured an increase in the ruble's exchange rate against the US currency by about 40% since the beginning of the year. Viktor Shakhurin, Chief Operating Officer of AVI Capital, told Izvestia about this on August 15.

"For the US dollar, the range of 80-89 rubles remains the base neutral scenario until the end of summer. In case of significant progress in relations between Russia and the United States after the negotiations between the presidents and the lifting of some sanctions, the exchange rate may gain a foothold in the range of 78-83 rubles per dollar, and if the market conditions are favorable, it may temporarily drop to 77-80. If there is a foreign policy or sanctions shock with the failure of negotiations and the introduction of tough new US sanctions, the dollar may overcome the mark of 90 rubles and rapidly approach the level of 100 rubles per dollar," the expert said.

In addition, until the beginning of autumn, the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate will remain under the influence of several multidirectional factors. On the one hand, foreign policy signals (the outcome of negotiations between Russia and the United States, new sanctions or trade agreements), as well as possible changes in energy prices, will play a significant role.

On the other hand, the government's decision yesterday to completely abolish the requirement for the mandatory sale of foreign exchange earnings by exporters will have a significant impact on the domestic foreign exchange market. This reduces the supply of currency and makes the exchange rate more sensitive to investor sentiment and the actions of the regulator.

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"As a result, the dollar exchange rate will be particularly sensitive to external events until the beginning of autumn, but the further trajectory largely depends on a combination of the geopolitical background and domestic policy: the Bank of Russia's rate decisions, the Ministry of Finance's actions in the foreign exchange market and demand for foreign currency from businesses and the public," Shakhurin said.

According to Fyodor Sidorov, a private investor and founder of the School of Practical Investment, amid the negotiations between Russia and the United States, the foreign exchange market is in a state of increased sensitivity to any signals. Analysts agree that the outcome of this dialogue will be the main factor for the ruble exchange rate in the coming months. While the bidders are waiting for specifics, the ruble is holding relatively strong positions, although the range of forecasts for the end of the year is quite wide: from 75 to 100 rubles per dollar.

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According to the estimates of the Ministry of Economic Development, the average annual exchange rate in 2025 will be about 94.3 rubles per dollar, and in the baseline scenario, Sberbank does not exclude strengthening to 90. At the same time, if negotiations are delayed and sanctions pressure increases, forecasts become noticeably more pessimistic.

"In the spring, the ruble has already demonstrated its ability to strengthen: at some points, the exchange rate dropped to 78 rubles per dollar, which was the lowest in two years. This was due to an increase in export earnings, a decrease in demand for foreign currency within the country and cautious optimism on the external circuit. However, in August, experts indicated that it would be difficult to maintain such a level without noticeable progress in relations with the United States. In the long term, it is the outcome of the negotiations that can consolidate one or another course trajectory," Sidorov concluded.

Dmitry Vishnevsky, an analyst at Cifra Broker, reported on August 11 that, amid news of a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and American leader Donald Trump in Alaska, the Russian stock market showed positive dynamics. According to him, the Moscow Exchange index rose from 2,730 to 2,915 points in the period from August 4 to August 8. The increase was about 7%.

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