VTB predicts revival of retail lending

The reduction of the Central Bank's key rate will have a positive impact on credit products, VTB believes. According to the bank's analysts, the decision of the financial regulator creates prerequisites for the revival of retail lending, among other things. This is reported by the bank's press service.

Taking into account the regulator's decision, VTB raised its forecast for mortgage loans on the market to 4.04 trillion rubles (previously - 3.8 trillion rubles). The cash loans segment is estimated by the bank at 3.5 trillion rubles by the end of the year (against 3.2 trillion rubles according to the previous forecast).

The decision to lower the key interest rate will have little impact on the car loan market, according to the bank's analysts. VTB maintained its forecast for car loans in 2025 at 1.3 trillion rubles. The bank is confident that most players, having assessed the regulator's signals, have already incorporated the current reduction into the tariff policy. In addition, the dynamics of the car loan market is largely determined by the cost of cars and the debt burden of borrowers, VTB emphasized.

At the same time, deposit rates will continue to decrease in the market, while remaining profitable enough to lock in profits until the end of the year, VTB believes. Banks have already begun to gradually reduce the profitability of deposits and savings accounts. In the first half of July, the maximum interest rate in the largest banks dropped below 18%, VTB analysts emphasize.

Players in the banking services market are refocusing on short-term attraction, VTB believes. In particular, there is a decrease in rates on six-month deposits, while increasing on three-month deposits. According to the bank, VTB has already decided to reduce interest rates on cash loans.

At the same time, according to analysts, the savings market will continue to grow in the second half of the year, albeit at a slower pace than previously expected. By the end of 2025, VTB estimates that it will reach 67 trillion rubles, of which 63.5 trillion are ruble savings.