The economist stated the risks for the United States due to restrictions on oil supplies from the Russian Federation

The American attempt to impose 100% tariffs against Russian oil buyers is not so much an economic step as a political one, which is aimed at destroying the new global economic order. Such a strategy could lead to the destruction of international energy stability. Igbal Guliyev, Dean of the MGIMO Faculty of Financial Economics, Doctor of Economics, told Izvestia about this on July 21.

"Russia and its partners — economic, energy — we understand that in recent years they have adapted to such elements of blackmail, trade wars, announcements, sanctions pressure and have already been able to build a new chain of routes, payment systems and economic alliances in general. And when we talk about imposing 100% tariffs against Russian oil buyers, we understand that this is already introducing elements of a trade war into the energy sector. And the energy sector is key both for Russia and for the main buyers of our oil," Guliyev stressed.

He also added that the artificial restriction of oil supplies from Russia could destabilize the entire world market: the volumes that Russia supplies today amount to about 10% of global turnover, and they cannot be replaced quickly.

"The global market does not have such reserve capacities that can compensate for the falling Russian volumes. And, to be fair, the Americans don't want Russian oil to drop out of the global oil market. If Russian oil leaves the world market, then the Americans themselves will have big problems, because [US President Donald] Trump promised to make energy resources cheaper for the development of domestic industry," Guliyev believes.

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The expert explained that "on the one hand, Americans need expensive oil from shale oil producers, on the other, they need cheap energy resources to develop the industry and the US economy."

Speaking about the international reaction, Guliyev noted that China has repeatedly stressed the inadmissibility of energy "dictate." India is likely to act more cautiously, but it remains committed to energy sovereignty.

"This adds fuel to the fire of all, so to speak, the anti—dollar sentiments of the countries of the global South, when countries may already consider the United States as a threat to their economic interests if Washington begins to impose additional fines, duties, and so on for their independent decisions in the field of energy security," the expert said.

According to Guliyev, in the case of the final introduction of 100% tariffs, Russia may consider mirror measures, although at the current stage they do not directly affect the supplier, but only its customers.

On July 14, the American leader announced that the United States would impose 100% secondary duties on Russia if a settlement of the conflict in Ukraine was not reached within 50 days. He also said that he supports the congressional initiative on sanctions against Russia, but "does not yet know whether it will be necessary."

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