Not imported: fewer new cars were supplied to Russia
Imports of new cars to Russia decreased by almost 70% in May, according to the analytical agency Autostat. Official shipments accounted for the main decrease, alternative imports decreased less, and used cars were imported even more. However, experts warn that those who would like to purchase an "alternative" car should hurry up. Izvestia found out why.
Which cars have become less imported
Last month, only 17.8 thousand new passenger cars were imported to Russia, which is four times less (-74.2%) than in May 2024. Compared to April 2025, imports have almost halved. Officially, only 10.5 thousand cars were imported in a month. At the same time, shipments through alternative channels (7.2 thousand) slightly exceeded the results of May 2024 (+2%) and reached a share of 41%.
— They stopped bringing Chery, they only drive through assembly, they brought very few Geely. The main imports came from Changan, a little bit from Haval and any alternative like Toyota," said Sergey Tselikov, General Director of Autostat.
Changan took the largest share in official imports — 38%, in the alternative — Toyota with 15%. 1,488 Japanese-made cars were imported. BMW, Geely and Lixiang cars are also unofficially imported to us. New cars are mainly imported from China (70%), while cars are also imported from Kyrgyzstan (9%), South Korea (7%) and Belarus (5%).
What are the reasons for the recession
According to Sergey Tselikov, more than half of May sales are for cars manufactured in 2024, but stocks of imported cars are declining slowly. Demand is still significantly lower than supply.
— The drop month—on-month and year-on-year just reflects all the main factors influencing the market, such as the high key rate, currency fluctuations and the news appearing in the media about the return of departed brands. There is a significant portion of consumers who are waiting for this moment and postponing the purchase of a car. I have repeatedly said that these are stuffing, behind which there is absolutely nothing," Nikolai Ivanov, director of the New cars department at Rolf, told Izvestia.
Importers have taken into account the bitter experience of last year related to the financing of excess inventory, said Renat Tyukteev, Deputy General Director for New Car Sales at Avilon AG.
At the same time, Maxim Kadakov, editor-in-chief of Za Rulem, noted that dealers of many brands still have stocks of cars in their warehouses for 3-4 months of trading.
Sergey Tselikov attributes a significant reduction in imports, firstly, to the development of local assembly of Chinese cars, and secondly, to a strong "overstocking" of distributors and dealers' warehouses.
Looking for an alternative
As for the growing popularity of alternative imports, Autostat explains it with a favorable exchange rate.
— Alternative imports are now profitable and in demand. It has become the main method of importing brand cars to Russia that have left the official market or are not represented here by production. Used foreign cars, especially from Japan and Korea (24.5%), fill a niche that neither localized cars nor the import of new Chinese cars can close," says Irina Frank, CEO of Frank Auto.
Against the background of falling imports of new cars, the import of used cars increased by 23% compared to May 2024 and reached 37 thousand units, in fact repeating the result of April this year. Japanese Toyota is the leader in the secondary market, as well as in alternative supplies, with its share reaching 21.8%. Interestingly, the share of right-hand drive and left-hand drive cars is almost equal, the import of the former is decreasing, the latter is growing.
Therefore, imports from Japan (46%) are becoming less popular, with destinations such as South Korea (24.5%) and China (13%) gaining weight.
— For some reason, we believed that the condition of used cars from South Korea is very good. This is probably true, given the small runs, where is there to drive on the Korean Peninsula? Models that have already been tested here are coming from China. For example, a Geely Monjaro with mileage. People are looking for cheaper alternatives, some can't afford a new car or don't want a Chinese one," said Igor Morzharetto, partner at Autostat.
Experts attribute Toyota's popularity, both new and used, to the Japanese brand's historically established reputation for reliability. In conditions of scarcity and economic uncertainty, buyers and importers see Toyota as a safe investment, Irina Frank notes.
— Customers still choose the once popular Toyota brand, which for many years was among the top 5 leaders of the Russian market with annual sales of about 100 thousand units. This volume is comparable to the current sales of all new brands combined. Today, new Toyota cars in Moscow and the region are sold at about 300 units per month, which is an insignificant figure, accounting for only about a quarter of the sales of any of the top 3 Chinese brands (Haval, Chery and Geely)," said Renat Tyukteev.
Will the market start to close?
Maxim Kadakov warns those who want to buy an "alternative" car, they should hurry up with the purchase before the end of this year.
— I admit that with the gradual introduction of Russian car manufacturers within this year, we will hear calls for the market to start closing. For example, they are setting up production of executive class cars in our country, then why do we need Mercedes and BMW? It is possible to regulate their import with the help of recycling. Or, for example, used right—hand drive cars, if their popularity grows, they will say that they influence the Russian market, which is already hard," the expert noted.
"Let's wait until autumn"
According to Kadakov, despite the overstocking of warehouses, prices for new cars will not fundamentally change.
— In a situation with unchanged prices, we will wait until the fall, and in the fall people will be driven by new hype that the recycling fee will be increased again from January. Therefore, it would make no sense for anyone to lower prices for cars that have not yet been sold out, because newly imported cars will be more expensive," Maxim Kadakov believes.
The price of new cars produced in 2025 is higher than for similar ones in 2024, due to discounts, Nikolai Ivanov explained.
"This is the only difference, the price itself is the same," he noted and expressed confidence that there would be no new discounts on cars in 2025.
Although there is pressure on prices, it is not worth expecting a significant reduction or large-scale discounts in the near future, Irina Frank told Izvestia.
— Sales in early June were stable, but not growing. The key factor will be the market's reaction to a possible reduction in the Central Bank's key rate. Some buyers are already postponing purchases in anticipation of more favorable credit conditions," she said.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
