Negotiation disorder: The EU is not considering Ukraine's accession until 2030

Brussels does not consider Ukraine's accession until 2030 to be realistic, a European diplomatic source told Izvestia. According to him, several countries of the association are concerned about the prospect of farmers going bankrupt because of Ukrainian grain. Experts believe that such countries include Hungary, Poland and Slovakia, while Italy and France may also have claims. The EC had previously proposed to abandon unanimity when approving progress in accession negotiations. However, the rapid adoption of Ukraine in Europe does not enjoy public support. Meanwhile, Ukraine's main supporters gathered in Warsaw and promised to increase their support so that Kiev would survive the winter.

Ukraine will not be admitted to the EU until 2030

The European Union is not considering Ukraine's accession to the union until 2030, a European diplomatic source told Izvestia. According to him, Brussels and Kiev face difficult negotiations on two clusters of negotiations that have not yet been opened: the fourth ("Green Agenda and sustainable connectivity") and the fifth ("Resources, agriculture and cohesion").

— I don't think there are any large-scale plans to accelerate the process (of Ukraine's accession to the EU. — Ed.). The Ukrainian agricultural sector raises concerns among a number of member states, and the European Commission is now looking for solutions to allay these fears. Discussions are continuing, but I do not believe in Ukraine's membership until 2030," the source told Izvestia.

Hungary, Poland and Slovakia imposed an embargo on the import of Ukrainian grain back in 2023. Such protectionism is explained by the fact that the free sale of cheap Ukrainian agricultural products threatens European farmers with bankruptcy. Under pressure from these countries, Brussels returned quotas for the supply of Ukrainian agricultural products in 2025.

According to Natalia Yeremina, Professor at St. Petersburg State University, Budapest, Bratislava and Warsaw are likely to continue to impose strict demands on Kiev on agriculture, which may complicate negotiations on the fifth cluster. German political scientist Egor Belyachkov believes that Rome and Paris may also have claims, since they are interested in maintaining their positions on certain types of agricultural products. Moreover, their position will play an even more significant role in this matter.

By the way, sociology says that the population of the European Union does not really expect Ukraine to join. According to the survey, 47% of EU citizens are ready to support Ukraine's admission to the bloc in the coming years, while 53% reject this idea. Therefore, public pressure on European governments should also not be expected.

The Brussels carrot: Ukraine and Moldova are closer to integration into the European Union

EU members have decided to open two new clusters for Kyiv and Chisinau.

New ideas from Brussels

To join the EU, the candidate country must close six sections (clusters) of negotiations, bringing its legislation closer to the European one. The EU Treaty stipulates that all 27 member States must agree on each stage of the accession process. Ukraine received candidate status back in 2022, but the opening of clusters began only this year, when the government changed in Hungary.

Negotiations on two sections (fundamentals and external relations) were launched in the summer. Two more clusters were unblocked in early October, after Budapest lifted its veto. In return, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine adopted a law expanding the educational, linguistic and cultural rights of the Hungarian and other minorities of Ukraine, whose languages are recognized as official in the EU. This document does not apply to Russian.

However, the issue of agriculture, as already mentioned, will raise objections not only from Hungary. Therefore, in early October, the European Commission proposed replacing the requirement of unanimity of all 27 countries with a qualified majority vote when making interim decisions. As the reforms are implemented, states will be able to gradually integrate into the EU's strategic markets and programs. According to this idea, unanimity will be required in three cases: the granting of candidate status, the closing of negotiations and the ratification of the accession treaty.

In the spring, several options appeared at once for Ukraine's accession to the European Union, bypassing the classical regulations. For example, the German proposal provided for a certain status of an "associate member" of the association without the right to vote. France talked about the format of an "integrated state" with access to finance. However, Kiev insists only on full-fledged joining the union as soon as possible.

Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Serbia and Montenegro are waiting for their turn. In addition, Moldova, Georgia and Turkey have been granted candidate status, but they have even fewer prospects. Kosovo is considered a potential candidate, but five EU countries do not recognize the independence of the self-proclaimed republic.

Statements at the Warsaw Conference

The Baltic countries are more insistent on Ukraine's early European integration than others: Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda previously offered to promise Kiev membership by 2030. Poland takes a more ambiguous position: officially, it supports Kiev's accession, but there are many unresolved issues between the countries. That is, it is far from certain that Poland will eventually approve Ukraine's accession to the EU.

In the summer, Polish President Karol Nawrocki stripped Zelensky of the Order of the White Eagle due to the glorification of Nazi collaborators. The confrontation between Prime Minister Donald Tusk and President Navrotsky also affects the situation. It is difficult to suspect the latter of sympathizing with the Russian Federation, but even he accused Tusk of intimidating Poles with the threat of war with the Russian Federation for political reasons.

Earlier, the Polish Prime minister spoke at the Warsaw Security Forum and promised to continue supporting Ukraine. On October 12-13, the most ardent supporters of Kiev gathered in the Polish capital, including the prime ministers of Lithuania and Norway, as well as heads of various departments of other Baltic countries and Scandinavia. The main topic of the October 13 meeting was the fate of Russia's frozen assets in the EU. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said the money would be returned to Russia "only over our dead body." According to him, it is necessary to convince US President Donald Trump to abandon the deal with Russia on the purchase of diesel. Lithuanian Prime Minister Mindaugas Sinkevicius called the agreement shameful, but did not offer any concrete actions.

Warsaw conspiracy: Europe is trying to prevent a deal between Russia and the United States on fuel

At a forum in Poland, the main supporters of confrontation presented an action plan in case of conflict with the Russian Federation

Ed Miliband, the Foreign Minister of the United Kingdom, said that it is critically important for the EU and its allies to hurry up with a decision on the use of Russian assets in order to ensure that Ukraine's financial and defense needs are met during the winter and beyond.

At the same time, Moscow had previously announced that it would respond to any attempts to confiscate its frozen assets. As for the diesel deal, agreements on its supply meet the interests of the Russian Federation, the United States and global energy markets, Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on October 13.

The prospects for Ukraine's accession to the EU remain extremely vague, as the country does not meet the criteria for unification in reality. Kiev is completely dependent on external budget support, and its public debt has exceeded 100% of GDP. European integration is now perceived as Europe's help, but when it comes to a real discussion of Kiev's accession, many EU countries may change their position.