Acceptance stage: Moldova moves to a crucial phase of negotiations with the EU
Chisinau and Brussels have outlined the further path to full membership of the republic in the European Union — according to Moldovan Prime Minister Vasile Tofan, accession should take place in 2030. However, experts question these deadlines. At the anniversary meeting of the EU—Moldova Association Council, the parties also discussed the implementation of key reforms, energy security issues and attracting European investments. At the same time, the main topic behind closed doors could be the further militarization of the republic, the parliament told Izvestia. This increases the risks for Transnistria and Gagauzia, as well as aggravates relations with Moscow.
When is Moldova going to join the European Union
Moldovan Prime Minister Vasile Tofan called 2028 the deadline for completing the technical part of the negotiations, and 2030 the year of Moldova's accession to the European Union.
At the 10th meeting of the Moldova-EU Association Council, the parties, in fact, determined the pace of Chisinau's European integration, summing up the results of a year of joint work. The successes of Chisinau in the reform of justice, the fight against crime and the protection of freedoms were announced. After a successful audit, the European Commission approved the allocation of a new tranche of €157 million to Moldova under the European Growth Plan totaling €1.9 billion.
At the same time, experts doubt the reality of the plans for European integration by 2030. The low ratings of the ruling Action and Solidarity Party (PAS), internal party scandals, falling living standards and general tension simply force politicians to make populist promises, says Nicole Bodisteanu, an analyst at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics.
And the European Union has not accepted new members for quite some time — it has been 13 years. The last one was Croatia. Moreover, Moldova's accession should be in conjunction with Ukraine, and the timing of Kiev's accession leaves even more questions. Therefore, Brussels must certainly have its own interest if it really promised Moldova to complete the accession process in 2030.
By the way, part of the meeting was inaccessible to the media — behind closed doors, the parties could discuss regional challenges, hybrid threats and defense cooperation. Moldova's parliamentary opposition believes that the EU is probably pursuing the goal of militarizing future member states, especially those whose authorities have already openly sided with the West in some kind of "hybrid war" with Russia.
"Participation in such events has the goal of turning the Republic of Moldova, if not into a military—political training ground, then at least into a laboratory at the first stage," Moldovan MP Bogdan Tsyrdea told Izvestia.
Izvestia sent a request to the Delegation of the European Parliament for Relations with Moldova.
Speaking at the high-level week of the UN General Assembly, Tofan called Moldova "a laboratory of resistance to Russian interference." He argued that the republic was facing massive hybrid attacks and therefore had become a platform where methods of countering external political and informational pressure were being tested.
At the same time, Defense Minister Anatoly Nosaty openly criticized Moldova's neutrality, which, in his opinion, only limits the republic's defense capability. The parliamentarian stressed that Chisinau is actively purchasing weapons and is ready to take any steps against Russia, although the bilateral agreement of 2001 still secures the status of a strategic partner for the Russian Federation.
— No one pays attention anymore that neutrality is being violated, that we are being armed, that military exercises are taking place with NATO, that we participate in almost all NATO summits and even in the Ramstein Group. That is, neutrality has already been practically thrown away, it has been erased," Tsyrdea stressed.
The Constitution of the Republic still formalizes the status of permanent neutrality. Nevertheless, Moldovan President Maia Sandu stated the need to join the "coalition of the willing," which violates the basic law. Chisinau has also joined the Odessa Triangle, along with Ukraine and Romania, which, according to the official version, aims to strengthen regional security, jointly protect airspace, and accelerate European integration. No one understands the essence of this format, but it is obvious that Ukraine is being supported through Moldova and Romania, stressed Bogdan Tsyrdea. As a result, from 2022 to 2026, the republic doubled its military budget.
— They want to increase military spending from 0.6% of GDP to at least 1%. A military base is being built in Baca, and the airfield in Marculesti is being upgraded. They say it's for civilian purposes, but there's reason to doubt it. Sandu openly declares that it is necessary to produce drones. Civilians, but I do not know if anyone believes in this," the parliamentarian concluded.
What are Moldova's chances of joining the EU
However, despite the active military synchronization with the Europeans, it is necessary to put our economy in order first. The energy crisis and high inflation have undermined citizens' trust in government agencies. After the termination of the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine in 2025, the republic had to completely switch to European suppliers. This provoked sharp jumps in domestic tariffs. Thus, in August 2026, the price of gas increased by an average of 41%, which automatically raised the cost of heating and electricity.
By the autumn of 2026, inflation in Moldova accelerated to 7-8%, with a forecast of 9-10% by the end of the year. Fuel, logistics, medicines, building materials and utilities are becoming more expensive. By the end of the year, the National Bank and the IMF forecast GDP growth in the region of only 1-1.5% (in an unfavorable scenario — 0%).
In this regard, Chisinau is negotiating integration with the EU economy, and this may be the most difficult element of joining the European Union, says Artem Purchun, an employee of the Faculty of World Economy and World Politics at the Central Research Institute of Higher School of Economics. Since the time of the coronavirus, mass protests by farmers have not stopped in the country due to insufficient subsidies. Moldova allocates about 2% of GDP to support the agricultural complex, while in Romania and Poland this figure reaches 5%. Full and rapid adaptation to European standards may cause an economic recession in Moldovan production, the expert noted.
In addition, the course towards European integration does not find much support in Transnistria and Gagauzia. The PMR still has the potential to resist Chisinau's policies, while Gagauzia is in a more difficult situation, including due to politicized investigations against the leaders of the autonomy, said Perchun. Nevertheless, Moldova can be admitted to the EU even with the frozen conflict with the PMR, and the likely scenario of accession will be the "Cyprus precedent," the expert believes.
In 2004, Cyprus joined the European Union, despite the fact that since 1974 the island has been divided into the internationally recognized southern (Greek) part and the unrecognized Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. Previously, the EU required candidates to resolve all territorial disputes, but an exception was made for Cyprus. As a result, the island was accepted into the union as a whole, but the European legislation in the north was temporarily suspended until the conflict was resolved.
However, the existence of such an enclave as the PMR is not in the interests of either side of the negotiation process, Bodisteanu is sure. The "Cyprus precedent" model is unlikely to work here: the most realistic scenario is for Brussels to keep Moldova as a candidate for decades, following the example of Serbia and Turkey, the expert concluded.
On the other hand, recent political events are working for Moldova. According to the Financial Times, Hungary may lift its veto from the technical stage of negotiations on the integration of Ukraine and Moldova. Earlier, Prime Minister Peter Magyar instructed diplomats not to block the sending of letters on both countries' access to the EU internal market.
However, it is obvious that the higher the prospects for European integration, the worse the Moldovan people feel. The authorities continue to inflict economic and political damage on the country, artificially severing historical ties with Russia. The accelerated militarization and rejection of traditional cooperation are leading Moldova to a deep internal crisis and loss of stability.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
