Crisis dialogue: EU business is interested in restoring ties with Russia

Due to sanctions, the volume of trade between Russia and the European Union has fallen 5.5 times since 2021. Despite this, European companies are showing fundamental interest in restoring business ties, the Russian permanent mission to the EU told Izvestia. An increase in supplies is possible in certain product categories that are not subject to sanctions bans, for example, in medicine, experts noted. Meanwhile, a business forum of Russia, Germany and the United States on energy is being prepared, which may be an attempt to establish a dialogue between commercial sectors.

What is the current situation with exports from the EU to Russia

Until 2022, the European Union was Russia's main trading partner, accounting for more than a third of the country's foreign trade turnover. Large-scale sanctions have destroyed previous economic ties: trade volumes have dropped significantly, and Russia has dropped from 5th to 19th place in the ranking of EU partners.

— According to Eurostat, in the first half of 2026, the trade turnover between Russia and the EU decreased by 13.2% compared to the same period in 2025, from €31.08 to €26.98 billion. This is the minimum level, which is 5.5 times less than the "pre-sanctions" indicator (i.e. 2021. — Ed.), — the Permanent Mission of the Russian Federation to the European Union told Izvestia.

In particular, if we talk about exports from the EU to the Russian Federation, then, according to the same Eurostat, it reached a peak of €99 billion in 2021. But by 2024-2025, shipments had more than tripled, to €30.2–32 billion per year.

The preservation or even growth of supplies is observed only in certain categories of goods that have not been sanctioned, for example, in healthcare. While companies in other industries were shutting down business in the Russian market in 2022, European pharmaceutical giants sharply increased exports to our country. As a result, they shipped a record €2.9 billion worth of medicines in the fourth quarter of that year alone, as retail chains built up reserves due to fears of a complete logistics lockdown. In the next two years, the volume of supplies fluctuated around €8.5 billion, exceeded €9.5 billion in 2025, and the dynamics continued in 2026.

— As for the trade in medicines, we are talking about the humanitarian sphere — healthcare. The EU has to take into account that the introduction of a ban on the supply of medical products would be a blatant violation of human rights to health and the humanitarian principles of the United Nations," the Permanent Mission of the Russian Federation to the EU noted.

European chambers of commerce and business associations can lobby their commercial interests against official EU policy, but they will make only limited progress, says Andrei Kortunov, an expert at the Valdai Club. According to him, businesses can count on local concessions specifically in healthcare — this applies not only to the supply of medicines, but also medical equipment.

In other areas, the situation is much worse, especially for Europe itself.

— In 2022-2025, the cumulative economic losses of the European Union associated with the reverse effect of anti-Russian sanctions, according to various estimates, ranged from €1 to €1.6 trillion. The negative consequences primarily affected capital—intensive and export-oriented industries, including the chemical industry, automotive, mechanical engineering and energy," the Russian permanent mission stressed.

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Since 2022, the EU chemical industry has lost about 9% of its production capacity. The most significant reduction is noted in Germany — 25%, the Netherlands — 20%, France — 10% and Italy — 7%.

The EU has overpaid about €750 billion for gas supplies alone since the introduction of anti-Russian restrictions, the diplomats noted. The prolonged energy crisis and hasty decarbonization pose risks of further deindustrialization for Europe. Brussels' sanctions policy has not inflicted a "strategic defeat" on Russia, but has hit the EU with a "boomerang effect." At the same time, the adaptation of the Russian economy and the diversification of foreign economic relations will continue to reduce the damage from restrictions, which will eventually exhaust the sanctions tools of the West, the permanent mission noted.

What is the probability of restoring turnover

However, the European business community, contrary to the course of Brussels, maintains a positive attitude towards Russia.

— Despite the sanctions pressure and the openly Russophobic policy of the EU, we note the fundamental interest of European companies in restoring business ties with Russia. However, as the leadership of our country has repeatedly stressed, such cooperation should be mutually beneficial, long—term and sustainable and, most importantly, independent of the political situation," the permanent mission concluded.

Europe is rapidly losing its former competitive advantages, Andrei Kortunov added. Third countries are pushing European companies out of traditional markets, and Donald Trump is imposing import tariffs on them. Therefore, the EU business is striving, if not to fully return, then at least partially compensate for the losses of recent years. Companies still consider the Russian market to be very attractive, as it remains the largest in Europe.

While Europe was solving energy and logistics problems, competitors occupied its key markets. In Russia, companies from China, India, and local manufacturers have replaced European brands that have been building businesses here for decades. For example, China's auto industry has displaced German concerns from the passenger car and special equipment sectors, and due to low prices, it is outperforming Europeans even within the EU.

At the same time, Trump imposed import duties (base 20% on goods and increased on cars), forcing corporations to move factories to the States. The American law on reducing inflation, adopted under Joe Biden, and the new tariff barriers together literally drain capital from the EU: it is more profitable for giants like Volkswagen, BMW and BASF to build enterprises in the United States for the sake of subsidies and circumvention of duties.

Europe's old growth model is no longer working, and new conditions are depriving companies of profits. For the sake of economic survival and the return of competitive advantages, the EU's large capital is showing a pragmatic interest in restoring ties with the Russian Federation. One of the steps could be the Russia-USA–Germany trilateral business forum, scheduled for 2027.

Mutual production: trade between Russia and the EU in the first half of 2025 fell to 30.9 billion euros

How much does this affect the countries of the Union and how is Russia adapting?

The main initiator is the RDIF, headed by Kirill Dmitriev, with the direct support of the German AfD party. The initiative was also welcomed by the American Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

At the event, the parties can discuss not only fuel supplies, but also energy efficiency, energy storage technologies, carbon capture and infrastructure security, said Galina Platunina, Deputy Head of the Department of Digital Economy, Management and Business Technologies at MTUCI. According to her forecast, clear legal rules and an acceptable level of political and financial risks will remain the main condition for cooperation.

Logically, it is much more profitable for the European Union to transport goods to Russia than to the Middle East or Latin America due to low transportation costs, long-term experience and understanding of market dynamics, Kortunov added. According to him, it will be easier for the parties to restore trade than investment, and healthcare will serve as an excellent window for the growth of European supplies.

However, the development of the situation largely depends on politics: if the Ukrainian conflict ends in the next two or three years, we will probably be able to observe the return of retail from the EU. At the same time, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov stressed that the return of foreign companies should not weaken government support for Russian firms. In addition, Anton Kobyakov, adviser to the President of the Russian Federation, bluntly stated that there would no longer be the same working conditions for Western businesses. In particular, according to him, foreign partners are obliged to share technologies and localize production.

It is theoretically possible to restore at least a third of the pre-crisis trade turnover in the medium term, but this process will require great efforts, Galina Platunina believes. Previous flows, especially in energy and technology, are unlikely to return in full, as Russian exports have shifted to other markets, European supplies have been replaced by new partners, and businesses have rebuilt logistics and supply chains. Partners are more likely to partially restore trade in new niches, rather than return to the previous full-fledged structure.