Unbalance the balance: Ethiopia risks a return to a major war

Ethiopia is on the verge of a new civil war. Tigray's rebel forces seized Makele, Aksum and Shire airports and engaged in battles with federal troops in the neighboring Afar and Amhara regions. The resumption of fighting threatens the 2022 peace agreement, which has so far remained the foundation of peace in the country. Experts believe that the likelihood of further escalation of the conflict is quite high, but there is no direct threat to Russian projects in the country yet. Although protracted battles may slow down major joint projects, including the preparation of the first Ethiopian nuclear power plant.

Why did fighting start again in Ethiopia

War has broken out again in Ethiopia, although almost four years have passed since the signing of the peace agreement that stopped the last violent conflict in Tigray. Fighters of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Tigray (PFOT) have already captured three main airports in the north of the country near the border with Eritrea, and the fighting has spread beyond the region and spread to the neighboring provinces of Afar and Amhara.

The Tigray authorities call what is happening defense and accuse the federal army of strikes using drones, aircraft and artillery. In Addis Ababa, in turn, they declare the offensive actions of the NFL itself.

This conflict has once again raised the most painful question of how to unite a country where dozens of different peoples with their own languages and cultures live. Ethiopia is a federation of 12 regions, formed by national and linguistic identity. Tigray is populated mainly by Tigrays, while neighboring Amhara and Afar have their own authorities and political interests.

The region's political force, the PFOT, emerged back in 1975 as an insurgency against the military junta of the Derg. After her overthrow in 1991, the front remained the dominant force in Ethiopia's ruling coalition for almost three decades. The balance began to change after Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018: he rebuilt the political system, after which the leadership of Tigray moved into fierce opposition to the federal center.

The armed confrontation between the NFOT and the federal center broke out in 2020 amid a pandemic. Then the authorities postponed the national and regional elections, but in Tigray they still held their own vote, which Addis Ababa declared illegal. In November, the conflict escalated into open warfare after clashes around units of the federal Northern Command. In two years, the fighting claimed the lives of more than 600,000 people.

In November 2022, the parties concluded a peace agreement in Pretoria, but it was not possible to fully disarm the forces, resolve the issue of disputed territories and return the refugees. Nevertheless, the African Union still considers these agreements as the basic basis for a settlement.

In 2026, these agreements began to rapidly collapse. In May, the NFOT restored the pre—war authorities of the region, putting at the head of Tigray Debrecion Gebremikael, the leader of the front, who led it during the conflict of 2020-2022. This step directly contradicted the format of the interim administration provided for in the Pretoria Agreement.

The probability of further escalation of the conflict is now quite high, says Ivan Loshkarev, associate professor of the MGIMO Department of Political Theory. According to him, several elements of the system that developed after the Pretoria Agreement have been violated in recent days: the PFOT has allied with other opposition movements, and the leadership of the Tigray Interim Administration has effectively lost control of the region.

On September 21, the NFLF, along with six other armed movements, announced the creation of an alliance, the main goal of which is the removal of the government of Abiy Ahmed. It is significant that the Amharic National Movement "Fano" joined the coalition: during the last war, Amharic formations fought against the NFL on the side of the federal center.

The disarmament of Tigray's forces provided for in the peace agreements has not been fully completed over the past years, the expert stressed. This creates additional problems for Addis Ababa, as government forces have to operate on several fronts simultaneously - the federal army is already involved in unstable Amhara.

How the conflict threatens Russian projects in Ethiopia

A new round of conflict may also affect Moscow's economic cooperation with Addis Ababa. In 2025, the trade turnover between the two countries almost tripled, exceeding $435 million. Russia is increasing exports of fertilizers, agricultural machinery and energy equipment. Ethiopia, in turn, supplies coffee, flowers and textiles to the Russian market. As Russian Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut noted on September 14, the parties are discussing further increasing the supply of complex fertilizers, the volume of which has already reached about 0.5 million tons.

Nuclear energy remains a key area of bilateral relations. In September 2025, "Rosatom" and the Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation signed an action plan for the project of the country's first nuclear power plant. The document provides for a detailed study of the project, the preparation of a roadmap for a feasibility study and the conclusion of an intergovernmental agreement. In March 2026, cooperation continued: the Ethiopian Atomic Energy Commission and "Rosatom" signed a new strategic roadmap.

There is no direct threat to Russian projects at the current stage, Ivan Loshkarev emphasized. The NPP project is still far from the construction stage, and most of the existing areas of Russian-Ethiopian cooperation are not directly linked to the north of the country, where the main battles are currently taking place. At the same time, the potential long-term risk lies in Moscow's close ties with the federal authorities. If the balance of power within the country changes, Russia will have to take into account relations with other political forces.

At the same time, opportunities for de-escalation remain, but it will be difficult to implement them, Loshkarev believes. According to him, for this it is necessary to restore the Tigray management system provided for in the Pretoria Agreements, open humanitarian corridors and resume the political dialogue between Makele and Addis Ababa. So far, the probability of such a scenario remains small. In recent years, the federal center and the leadership of Tigray have accumulated too many mutual claims.

However, the conflict broke out less than two weeks after the meeting between Vladimir Putin and Abiy Ahmed at the BRICS summit in India on September 12. The Russian president invited the Ethiopian Prime Minister to Moscow for the third Russia—Africa summit, scheduled for October 28-29. With the escalation rapidly growing inside Ethiopia, experts do not rule out that during the visit, Addis Ababa may officially turn to Moscow for support.