Cold miscalculation: why the United States, Denmark and Greenland signed an agreement on the Arctic

The Trump administration is trying to reverse the negative trend in foreign policy ahead of the congressional elections. In New York, at the session of the UN General Assembly, the United States, Denmark and Greenland signed an agreement on security in the Arctic. However, Washington's attempts to allegedly contain threats from Russia and China hide an obvious fact: the American president has not gained full control over the island. And given the failure in the Middle East, the Arctic treaty looks like just an attempt to distract the electorate. The only area where Republicans still hope to show real results of their work before the vote is Ukraine. In this regard, special attention is focused on the meetings of Trump with Zelensky and Rubio with Lavrov.

What does the agreement between the USA, Denmark and Greenland mean?

The high week of the 81st session of the UN General Assembly was marked by new agreements. The United States, Denmark and Greenland have signed an agreement to strengthen security in the Arctic and the North Atlantic region.

According to Donald Trump, the United States gets the right to deploy a large military contingent and "permanent control over security and other needs" on the island. Publicly, the parties position the deal as an expansion of the defense mission under the collective supervision of NATO, as well as as a legal ban for non-aligned countries to deploy military bases there. The agreement will also allow blocking "sensitive investments" from Russia and China. They include the laying of underwater cables, the modernization and management of commercial seaports, as well as the purchase of licenses for the extraction of rare earth metals.

Official Copenhagen, however, separately stressed that the treaty does not transfer the island's security to the exclusive jurisdiction of the Americans. "The agreement" recognizes Denmark's "sovereignty and territorial integrity," as well as the "right of Greenlanders to self-determination," Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said.

However, judging by the leaks, the agreement effectively deprives Denmark and Greenland of the right of veto. Washington gets access to two new facilities — the Narsarsuaq airfield in the south and the Mestersvig base in eastern Greenland — and can build new defense and intelligence posts without the mandatory approval of the allies. At the same time, the bases will remain under Washington's control even in the event of a hypothetical declaration of Greenland's independence from the Danish crown. In addition, the new sites will become the front line for the deployment of the American "Golden Dome" missile defense system, another cherished dream of the American president.

Hello again: the United States has found a new way to control Greenland

Trump is going to deploy a military contingent to "protect" the island

Washington has moved on to the phased development of Greenland

But experts do not see the victory of the States in concluding the current agreement. Rather, it is a forced compromise that Washington had to make after the initial plan was disrupted, said Vladimir Vasiliev, chief researcher at the Institute of the USA and Canada of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

In February, the US administration strongly demanded that Greenland be transferred to American jurisdiction without any conditions, but this step met with strong resistance in Europe. In the EU, Washington's actions were regarded almost as an attack on the European Union — France and Germany began to pull together forces to protect Denmark, which raised the risk of a military clash. Given the protests of the local Greenlandic population and the tough stance of Brussels, Trump had to abandon the idea of quickly seizing the island.

And Washington changed tactics, moving to the phased development of Greenland. According to Vasiliev, the new bases will become strong points for the entry of American companies that have already received licenses for mining. By expanding its military presence and planning economic subsidies for the island's 59,000 people, Washington expects to completely subjugate Greenland to its de facto influence. The ultimate goal of this indefinite deal is to raise the issue of the legal annexation of the territory by the next election cycle in 2028, but this long—term project is still unable to solve the immediate electoral tasks of the Trump administration.

Voters had to show at least some foreign policy successes because of the obvious failures with Iran. Trump's bet on economic strangulation, isolation, and internal upheaval in the republic did not play out. Tehran not only withstood a massive US attack, but also achieved the ability to dictate terms to both Washington and the whole world — for example, in the story of the Strait of Hormuz. The negotiations have reached an impasse, and the Islamabad Memorandum signed in June is essentially not valid. Having found itself in such a situation just weeks before the congressional elections, the US administration is in dire need of a large-scale international breakthrough that can be profitably sold to voters in order to mask failures in the Middle East.

Connecting to the North: NATO is preparing for offensive operations in the Arctic

In response, Russia is strengthening its military capabilities in the region and protecting the NSR.

How Trump is trying to emphasize the power of the United States

In the current situation, Ukraine remains the only area where the American administration is still able to show dynamics and declare real results. Arctic bases are of little concern to the average taxpayer in Ohio or Pennsylvania, but ending multibillion—dollar spending on a conflict far from them is an understandable and strong argument in favor of the Republican Party.

It is important for the White House to force the parties to engage in dialogue or to fix interim agreements on American terms before US citizens go to the polls. Trump will be able to pass off any shifts here as fulfilling his main promise — "to stop the conflict in 24 hours."

That is why all attention is now focused on the sidelines of the 81st session of the UN General Assembly in New York. From the podium, Trump tried in every possible way to emphasize the power of the United States. He said that Washington is working with the leaders of Russia and Ukraine to end the conflict, promised to conclude a deal with Iran after the congressional elections and achieve a drop in world oil prices. Trump also threatened to use military force to protect the interests of the United States in the Western Hemisphere. ""The Cuban delegation even left the hall after his words "about the failed state" and its "imminent fall."

However, the talks between Donald Trump and Vladimir Zelensky, as well as Sergey Lavrov and Marco Rubio, will show the real limits of Washington's capabilities. As political analyst Malek Dudakov notes, before the midterm elections, Donald Trump is trying to hastily close key foreign policy issues, but the space for his maneuvers is almost exhausted.

Despite the stalemate in the Middle East, the US administration is forced to switch to Ukraine, but it is entering this negotiation track in a weak position. Due to the high risks of Republicans losing control of Congress, European opponents and the Ukrainian lobby already perceive the White House as a party with a limited amount of time and are no longer ready to unconditionally adapt to American pressure, the expert says. And this minimizes Washington's chances of a quick diplomatic breakthrough.

Thus, Trump's Arctic maneuver risks remaining only a pale background for a much tougher and more unpredictable game that Washington will be forced to play in the Eastern European theater in the days remaining before the election.