Safety margin: why world prices won't accelerate the cost of diesel in Russia
The record increase in global diesel prices, which have already jumped by more than 30% over the year and will continue to hold the bar high in the next few months, will not lead to a similar rise in fuel prices in the Russian Federation, experts interviewed by "Izvestia" believe. The domestic market is protected from external price fluctuations by a damping mechanism and export restrictions, and domestic prices are now more dependent on the production volumes of Russian refineries. At the same time, expensive imports in case of fuel shortage can increase the burden on the budget. What are the reasons for the current situation and what to expect for the global and domestic markets — in the material "Izvestia".
Why have global diesel prices increased?
This week, diesel fuel prices reached record levels in several major countries at once. In the US, the average cost of a gallon has increased to about $6.43, or about $1.7 per liter. This is a new historical high: the previous record of $5.82 per gallon was set in 2022. As The Wall Street Journal wrote on September 14, the largest US oil companies announced the beginning of a global crisis, which they warned about a few months ago.
In Europe, diesel prices have also risen to record levels. In Germany, a liter of fuel costs about $2.83, in France — $2.74, in Switzerland — $2.9. In some cities of Turkey, the price is close to $2 per liter.
According to Global Petrol Prices, diesel worldwide rose in price by 32.86% over the year. By September 14, the average global price reached $1.63 per liter. The most expensive fuel is sold in Hong Kong, the cheapest in Venezuela. Russia ranks 156th in the world in terms of cost: on average, a liter costs $0.968.
Kirill Rodionov, an independent energy expert, believes that global diesel prices have already reached peak levels and may remain at about the current level in the next few months. According to him, the cost of petroleum products is rising following oil amid supply disruptions related to the situation around the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, the expert does not expect new sharp spikes in prices for raw materials and fuel. If there are signs of an end to the conflict in the Middle East, quotes, according to his forecast, will begin to decline.
One of the main reasons for the diesel shortage was the reduction in oil supplies from the Middle East to refineries in countries that do not have their own production and are heavily dependent on imports of raw materials, Kirill Rodionov explained. In early September, in particular, the work of the strategic "East–West" oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia was temporarily stopped. As Bloomberg reported, Saudi Aramco has warned European refineries that they will not receive oil next month.
As a result of disruptions in the supply of petroleum products from the Middle East, the global market lost about 20% of the diesel supply, estimated Alexey Belogoryev, Director of Research and Development at the Institute of Energy and Finance. An additional factor was the reduction in Russian fuel exports. Before the restrictions were imposed, our country provided about 10% of global supplies, the expert noted. Previously, Russian diesel, in particular, was exported to Brazil, Turkey and African countries. Currently, according to intergovernmental agreements, supplies mainly go to the EAEU countries and Mongolia.
In the Russian Federation, a temporary ban on diesel exports was introduced at the end of September 2025 for traders and refineries with a production volume of up to 1 million tons per year. Since July 2026, restrictions have been extended to all manufacturers. An exception was made for supplies under intergovernmental agreements and humanitarian exports. The ban is currently in effect until September 30th. In addition, the country has a total ban on gasoline exports until January 31, 2027.
The Ministry of Energy informed "Izvestia" that the priority remains to provide the domestic market with the necessary volumes of fuel and maintain its stability. With sufficient supply and improvement of the situation, the current export restrictions can be adjusted.
Impact on the Russian market
At the same time, global gasoline prices react to geopolitical events less strongly than the cost of diesel. In particular, this is due to the high seasonal demand for diesel fuel from agriculture during the sowing campaign, which takes place at this time of the year around the world, said Alexey Belogoryev. In addition, the Gulf states and Russia play a smaller role in the global gasoline trade than in the supply of diesel. Before the restrictions were imposed, Russian gasoline accounted for about 1-2% of the global trade in this type of fuel.
Against the background of the conflict over the Strait of Hormuz, China also imposed strict restrictions on the export of gasoline and diesel. However, since July, the country began to gradually mitigate them, after which the volume of oil products supplies to foreign markets began to recover.
The rise in global diesel prices will not directly affect the Russian market, said Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund. According to him, the current damping mechanism in Russia smooths out the impact of external price fluctuations on the cost of fuel within the country. Therefore, the dynamics of gas station prices now largely depends on the situation on the domestic market and the production volumes of Russian refineries.
The fuel damper is a government mechanism that has been in effect since 2019 and is designed to curb the rise in gasoline and diesel fuel prices within the country. It provides for compensation to oil companies for the supply of fuel to the Russian market if exports turn out to be more profitable in a particular period. This reduces the incentive for companies to increase external supplies when global prices rise. If they decrease relative to domestic ones, companies, on the contrary, transfer part of the funds to the budget.
At the same time, the current ban on diesel exports does not allow Russian oil companies to take advantage of high global prices and increase revenues from foreign supplies. This does not significantly affect the current revenues of companies due to the damper, but they lose the opportunity to make additional profits from exports, explained Alexey Belogoryev. If the restrictions are lifted after the decline in world prices, oil companies may not be able to take advantage of the favorable external environment.
At the same time, high global prices may create problems if Russia needs to import additional diesel. In this case, the cost of purchasing fuel abroad may be higher than the price of its sale in the country. Importers will have to compensate for the difference using the import damper mechanism, which can increase the burden on the budget.
However, there is no such need now: domestic refineries produce enough diesel for the domestic market, the expert notes. At the end of August, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak also stated that the country was fully supplied with diesel fuel and there was no shortage of it.
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