Golden Square: why there are fewer affordable homes in Russia
The market for new buildings in Moscow is moving further away from the mass buyer: budget options are practically disappearing, and the cost of the "square" continues to grow. The high cost of construction and expensive loans are putting pressure on prices. At the same time, the metropolitan trend is gradually spreading to other major cities. How prices are changing and whether buyers will be able to count on more affordable housing is in the Izvestia article.
Where are the cheap apartments left on the primary
In July 2026, the average price of 1 sq. m. The cost of new buildings in "old" Moscow has reached 871 thousand rubles, experts from Metrium and the FGC Group of Companies told Izvestia. For comparison, in 2023, the "square" cost an average of 491 thousand rubles - in three years the price increased by 77%. Against this background, affordable housing in the capital is becoming increasingly rare. In the segment of up to 300 thousand rubles per 1 sq. m. There are only six facilities left — three residential and three apartment complexes. There are 27 apartments and 44 apartments for sale.
"Paradoxically, the top 10 most affordable residential complexes in Moscow today include exclusively ready-made complexes," said Olga Tumaikina, Commercial Director of FGC Group.
According to her, some of these new buildings are cheaper today than housing in more remote areas from the center. This is primarily due to rising construction and sales costs. Therefore, the choice of available options remains small.
In three years, the number of offers in this price segment has decreased 13—fold, from 80 to six. In 2023, there were 45 residential complexes, 31 apartment complexes and four mixed—use facilities with apartments and apartments. At that time, about 14.5 thousand lots were offered to buyers. By July 2026, their number had dropped to 71, by about 99.5%.
Five of the six remaining new buildings belong to the mass segment. The minimum price is 1 sq. m. m is 277.9 thousand rubles in apartments and 237.4 thousand rubles in apartments. In business class, there is only one option that is cheaper than 300 thousand rubles per 1 sq.m. m is an apartment complex with an average price of 257.9 thousand rubles.
"The reduction in available supply is influenced by a high key rate, an increase in the tax burden, as well as an increase in the cost of construction due to logistics problems and rising fuel costs," explained Dmitry Proskurin, Commercial director of Metrium.
According to him, the situation is also affected by the moratorium on the launch of new apartment projects. The remaining available options appeared at a time when the cost of their construction was lower.
Evgenia Vinichenko, Director of Pricing and Analytics at Pioneer, noted that the Southeastern District has become the leader in terms of growth rates: here the average increased by 31% and reached 24 million rubles per lot. Similar values were recorded in the Southern and Northwestern districts - an increase of 30%, and current budget levels increased to 38 million and 36 million rubles, respectively.
— Consistently high rates in the Western AO — by 29%, up to 49 million rubles, and the South-Western AO — by 28%, up to 30 million rubles, — she added. — The Central Administrative District, remaining the most expensive district with an average purchase budget of 248 million rubles, demonstrates the opposite trend: the budget here decreased by 2%.
What is the situation with new buildings in Russia
In the country, over the past three years, the average cost of a "square" in the primary market has increased by 34.3% to 161.7 thousand rubles, said Alexander Ivanov, a leading analyst at the federal company Floors.
— Three years ago, 56% of the 16 million-plus cities had an average price of 1 sq.m. The price in the primary market was below 120 thousand rubles," he said. — There are no such megacities left now. In 2023, only in Moscow and St. Petersburg the "square" cost on average more than 150 thousand rubles, in other large cities the price was lower. In August 2026, the situation changed dramatically, the average price of a "square" below 150 thousand rubles remained only in 25% of the million-plus cities. For example, in Samara, Rostov-on-Don, Krasnoyarsk and Volgograd. In the rest, the cost exceeded this level.
According to the Avito Real Estate analytical center, the average offer price for new buildings in July 2026 was 191 thousand rubles per 1 sq.m. m is 3% more than in June and 11% higher than last year's figures.
In the Rostov region, the average price per square meter was 147 thousand rubles, in the Novosibirsk region — 166 thousand rubles, in Bashkortostan — 167 thousand rubles. During the month, prices decreased in Moscow by 4% and in the Moscow Region by 1%, while in the Rostov and Sverdlovsk regions, as well as in Tatarstan, they remained at the same level.
The number of transactions under the shared—equity construction agreement in July 2026 amounted to 40.7 thousand, which is more than in each of the months from February to May, but 5% less than in June.
At the same time, sales continued to grow in some regions. The largest number of transactions increased in the Orenburg region — by 33%, Kaliningrad — by 31%, Leningrad — by 24%, Samara — by 22% and Voronezh regions — by 21%. In St. Petersburg, the indicator increased by 9%. In terms of the total number of transactions, the leaders were Moscow and the Moscow region, St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Region, as well as the Rostov Region and the Krasnodar Territory.
The average purchase budget in July reached 9.7 million rubles, which is 1% more than a month earlier and 4% higher than a year ago. The average price of a "square" in sold apartments increased to 211 thousand rubles against 203 thousand rubles in June. At the same time, the average area of purchased housing decreased by 3% to 46.1 sq. m.
— In July, the new-build market returned to a calmer dynamic. At the same time, following the results of the first seven months of 2026, the number of DDA transactions remains 2% higher than the level of the same period last year," said Dmitry Alekseev, Managing Director of primary real estate at Avito Real Estate.
Will housing be affordable
The situation with new buildings in Moscow indicates not only an increase in prices, but also a rapid reduction in the available supply, confirmed Valery Tumin, Director of Russian and CIS Markets at Pham Properties. In his opinion, affordable housing in the capital is gradually becoming rare.
— Even in the mass segment, designed for a wide range of buyers, the average price reached 425 thousand rubles per 1 sq. m. Therefore, an apartment of 50-60 sq. m. It will cost about 21-26 million rubles, not counting the costs of repairs, furniture and the completion of the transaction," the expert added.
Lowering the key interest rate may make mortgages more affordable, but it will not solve the problem of high housing costs for most families, Valery Tumin stressed.
— The main difficulty is that in recent years, apartment prices have grown significantly faster than household incomes, — the expert explained. — At the same time, lower mortgage rates will not necessarily lead to a decrease in the cost of housing — on the contrary, it may increase demand. With limited supply, this will create additional pressure on prices, especially in Moscow.
The trend is gradually spreading to the regions. The situation there varies: the cost of real estate is affected by household incomes, construction volumes, migration and the number of offers. According to Valery Tumin, prices in large cities outside the capitals may also come under pressure.
"Moscow is no exception in this case, but the first and most notable example of a general trend," the economist added. — Affordable housing has practically disappeared in the capital, and in large regional centers this process may begin later. Reducing the key interest rate can increase demand, but without an increase in construction volumes and real incomes, housing for the majority of Russians will remain inaccessible.
The financial burden on developers is also increasing. It is affected by inflation, a high key interest rate, as well as rising costs for land, engineering and social infrastructure, and landscaping, said Denis Zhalnin, CEO of the People development company. According to him, the demand for standard housing is decreasing, so developers are increasingly betting on more expensive and high-quality formats that can compete more successfully with apartments on the secondary market.
— In order to attract buyers, developers have to upgrade the class of housing and its equipment, invest in the development of territories and social infrastructure. All these expenses are eventually reflected in the cost per square meter," Denis Zhalnin added.
At the same time, experts do not expect a sharp jump in prices in the near future. According to their estimates, the growth will be moderate — about 8-9% per year, and less demanded facilities may even become cheaper.
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