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Guarantee lesson: Moscow considers it necessary to participate externally in negotiations with Kiev
August 15 marks the anniversary of the meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump in Anchorage, which was supposed to pave the way for a settlement of the conflict in Ukraine. At that time, the parties announced serious progress, but no significant results could be achieved. Moscow is still ready for negotiations, but only if their results can be guaranteed by external parties to the conflict, the Russian Foreign Ministry told Izvestia. At the same time, the former Anchorage base may no longer be enough for this, experts say. Kiev's European allies generally support the idea of negotiations, but only on Ukrainian terms. At the same time, they continue to pump up the Ukrainian Armed Forces with new weapons.
What remains of the Anchorage agreements
Exactly one year ago, on August 15, the Presidents of Russia and the United States, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, met at the Elmendorf-Richardson military base in Anchorage, Alaska. The negotiations lasted about two and a half hours, and their main goal was to find the key to resolving the Ukrainian conflict.
After the meeting, the leaders were optimistic about the situation. Trump noted that the parties were able to come to an agreement on many points, although the matter did not reach the final document. Putin also announced the mutual understanding that had been reached, which gave a chance to move the peace process off the ground. However, a whole year has passed, and no real progress has happened, although Moscow remains open to dialogue.
— Russia is ready to negotiate, and to negotiate to achieve the result, the goal that we have set for ourselves. This can also be done through dialogue, avoiding bloodshed, unnecessary deaths, injuries, or destruction. Russia proceeds from this," Rodion Miroshnik, Ambassador—at-Large of the Russian Foreign Ministry, told Izvestia.
According to him, Ukraine is currently unable to conduct a productive dialogue and guarantee compliance with future agreements alone.
— Decisions are not made in Kiev. Therefore, it hardly makes sense to negotiate without external participation. Ukraine cannot independently guarantee the fulfillment of those agreements that could potentially be reached within the framework of negotiations," he added.
The contents of the Anchorage agreements — or, as they were later more cautiously called, "understandings" — became known mainly from subsequent statements and leaks to the media. After the summit, it was reported that Moscow was ready to freeze most of the line of contact, subject to the complete withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Donbass. Ukraine rejected this condition.
A year later, Moscow and Washington disagree on the results of the meeting. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that the Russian side was ready to accept American initiatives, despite the need for compromises on a number of points. In turn, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio interprets the results of the summit differently: in his opinion, if an agreement had actually been reached in Anchorage, the conflict would have been settled by now.
In the fall of 2025, there was a real hope for ending the confrontation. Then, in November, the American 28-point project appeared first in the media and then officially. It became known from the publications that it provided for Ukraine's refusal to join NATO, limitation of the size of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, territorial concessions to Kiev and a cease-fire after fulfilling the agreed conditions. However, after consultations with Kiev and European capitals, the original version was significantly revised.
One of the reasons for the lack of progress is Trump's overestimation of his own capabilities to influence Kiev and the United States' European allies, says Andrei Kortunov, an expert at the Valdai Club. In his opinion, before the meeting in Anchorage, the American president probably assumed that the main thing was to reach agreements with Moscow, after which they could be relatively easily imposed on the rest of the parties to the conflict. However, over the past year, the positions of Kiev and most European countries on settlement issues have hardly changed, and there has been no greater flexibility on their part.
Now the Trump administration appears to be changing tactics.: First, he is trying to reach a certain understanding with Kiev and only then involve Moscow in discussing new settlement parameters, Kortunov believes.
Prospects for conflict
American negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are now expected to arrive in Russia again. After Anchorage, they flew to Moscow together twice. On December 2, they discussed the American peace plan with Putin for about five hours, but they failed to reach a compromise on the territorial issue. On January 22, another almost four-hour meeting took place.
Steven Witkoff, Jared Kushner
In August, Kiev submitted new proposals to the American side to resolve the conflict. At the same time, Moscow has previously stated its readiness to discuss any initiatives of Washington, if they take into account Russian interests. It should be recalled that after bilateral contacts with American representatives, the parties switched to a trilateral format with the participation of Ukraine. The relevant rounds of consultations were held on January 23-24 and February 4-5 in Abu Dhabi, as well as in mid-February in Geneva.
However, due to the conflict in the Middle East, negotiations between the Russian Federation and Ukraine, mediated by the United States, have been suspended. But Europeans have become especially active in the media field. On June 7, Great Britain, Germany and France supported the idea of negotiations, but on new terms. As a basis, they suggested first achieving a complete cease-fire, which Moscow does not like.
So far, Ukraine is expanding its military capabilities, primarily in the field of drones. In July, the EU and Kiev signed an agreement to jointly increase the production of UAVs. According to Zelensky, Ukraine's capacities in 2026 already allow for the production of about 10 million drones. The increase in their number and range allows Kiev to support a campaign of strikes against Russian targets deep in its territory, be it refineries or other infrastructure.
Ukraine's capabilities have grown over the year, but the Russian potential has increased faster, said military expert Andrei Klintsevich. He believes that the Western military-industrial complex no longer has time to compensate for the gap in strike weapons and anti-missiles, even with additional funding.
The state of energy and the lack of air defense equipment before the new winter remain particularly sensitive for Kiev. Over the past heating season, according to the Ukrainian government, about 8.5 GW of generating capacity was damaged by impacts — almost half of the country's consumption level. In August, Zelensky said that there were practically no intact power plants left in Ukraine. At the same time, according to him, the supply of interceptor missiles by the allies in 2026 decreased to about a third of the level of last year.
The coming winter will be difficult for Ukraine, Klintsevich believes. Significant resources will have to be allocated to energy and heat supply, while railway logistics and the energy infrastructure restored over the summer remain vulnerable. Zelensky, by the way, complained that Ukraine received 2.5 times fewer interceptor missiles for Patriot systems this year than in 2025.
The visit of Witkoff and Kushner may be the last window for launching negotiations. At the same time, it is possible that Kiev and Brussels will try to disrupt the peace process again.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
