Counter risk: Russia's promise to respond to seizures of its ships has scared Europe
The inspection of vessels under the auspices of the European IRINI operation dramatically increases the risk of a direct collision between Russia and EU countries at sea. Russian President Vladimir Putin has already warned that Moscow may mirror the seizure of Russian merchant ships and cargo, and it is not at all necessary that this happen in the same water area. There are politicians in Europe who are taking a sober look at this situation — they are afraid of further escalation. The parties should do their best to avoid actions that could be perceived as a provocation, the Bundestag told Izvestia. At the same time, possible retaliatory measures by the Russian Federation are capable of hitting the European merchant fleet, primarily countries with a large shipping sector, experts say.
Interceptions of Russian ships — latest news
The European Union is intensifying attacks on Russian shipping. The EU naval operation called IRINI was expanded to the Mediterranean Sea back in June. In late July and early August, full—fledged detentions of ships that Brussels associates with the transportation of Russian goods began: on July 20, IRINI forces boarded the tanker South Star, and on August 2, Toa Payoh.
On August 12, Russian President Vladimir Putin reacted to the openly provocative actions of the Europeans. The President said that the authorities of a number of Western countries, in violation of international maritime law, are trying to restrict the movement of vessels of Russian economic operators, and recently they thought of the possibility of seizing our vessels and selling the property looted from us.
— Of course, this is nothing but piracy and robbery. And if this begins to be implemented in practice, we will have to respond in a mirror manner," Putin said.
Moreover, retaliatory actions, the president stressed, may not necessarily follow in the same part of the World Ocean.
Russian President Vladimir Putin
The Russian Foreign Ministry accused the European Union of abusing the norms of international maritime law and using IRINI to put pressure on commercial carriers. Initially, the mission was created for completely different tasks. The European Union launched the operation on March 31, 2020, primarily to monitor compliance with the UN arms embargo against Libya. Later, the mission's range of tasks gradually expanded, and in June 2026, the EU allowed its forces to be used for a more active fight against Russian ships.
Moscow believes that the EU is actually using the verification of the nationality of ships as a tool for implementing its own sanctions. The Foreign Ministry warned that such actions pose additional risks to the safety of navigation.
Europe is already worried about a possible escalation at sea. Matthias Mosdorf, an AFD member of the Bundestag and a member of the EU Affairs committee, told Izvestia that both sides needed to avoid confrontation.
— Of course, both sides need to do everything possible to prevent this. It is not in our interests to take actions that could be perceived as a provocation. The position of our party is absolutely clear: We don't want to be part of any escalation against Russia," he said when asked if the situation around IRINI raises concerns about a possible clash between Russia and the EU.
Mosdorf expressed the hope that serious consequences for relations between Russia and Europe would be avoided. According to him, if tensions do escalate, Germany should restrain the toughest position of individual European partners, primarily Britain and France.
What will Russia's response lead to?
The EU's move to actually detain a vessel or seize cargo is capable of setting a dangerous precedent, especially in international waters, said Pavel Anisimov, Deputy Director of the Institute of International Relations and Political Sciences at the Russian State University of Economics. The main risk is the emergence of a mutual practice of selective detention.
Russia's possible retaliatory measures create additional risks for the European merchant fleet. According to Anisimov, Moscow may respond in other important areas, such as the Baltic, the Black Sea, or routes connected to Russian ports. This will be particularly sensitive for the EU due to its dependence on maritime trade. First of all, Russia's measures may hit countries with large shipping and port sectors — Greece, Cyprus, Portugal, Ireland, the Netherlands, Italy and Spain. Dutch ports provide 16% of the EU's maritime cargo turnover, Italy — 14.6%, Spain — 14.5%.
This is especially important for Greece, as it is the largest shipping power in the world. According to UNCTAD, Greek owners control 16.4% of the global merchant fleet's cargo capacity. Together with China and Japan, the three countries account for over 40% of the total fleet.
Risks for Greek business are already being discussed internally. Following the Russian president's statement, Proto Thema newspaper noted that in the event of a transition from warnings to mutual detentions, not only ships of the so-called shadow fleet, but also ordinary commercial ships, could be hit.
The experience of the Red Sea crisis shows that the market reacts to risk in advance. Due to attacks and threats to shipping, carriers sent ships to bypass the Suez Canal around the Cape of Good Hope, which increased flight times and reduced available tonnage; military insurance rates for some flights in July 2026 increased from about 0.3% of the cost of the vessel to more than 1%, and according to some estimates — up to 3%.
Commercial costs are most likely to increase, the expert added. Even a few high-profile ship detentions can make shipping more expensive: the cost of insurance and shipping will increase, and companies will incur additional costs due to delays and the need to change routes. As a result, EU foreign trade may become more expensive, and costs will ultimately affect prices for European consumers.
As a result, the consequences of the fight against the Russian merchant fleet, which is actively being waged by the EU, will be felt primarily by ordinary Europeans. At the same time, the head of the European Commission is not directly elected by EU citizens, so Brussels' decisions often raise questions about how much the current course corresponds to the sentiments of the population. It turns out that the policy of further escalation of relations with Russia is carried out by institutions whose actions do not always reflect the will of European citizens.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
