Viral, that's it: scientists have predicted new Ebola outbreaks
New Ebola outbreaks in the coming years are highly likely to appear not only in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, but also in a number of countries in West and Central Africa. This conclusion was reached by international researchers who created a mathematical model that for the first time combined data on the spread of the virus, the range of bats — possible vectors of infection — and the impact of human activity. The forecast accuracy has reached 97%. Against the background of the largest outbreak in the history of the DRC, interest in disease prevention may increase, and Russian scientists are ready to continue working on a vaccine against the current variant of the virus.
Where new Ebola outbreaks are possible
An international team of scientists with the participation of researchers from Africa, Europe and the United States has developed a computational model that allows us to identify the territories with the highest risk of new Ebola outbreaks. In the calculations, experts took into account not only the cases of the previous spread of infection, but also the natural conditions — in particular, the habitat of bats capable of carrying the virus, as well as factors related to human activity: artisanal mining, hunting and armed conflicts. This comprehensive approach has improved the accuracy of forecasting to 97%.
"Combining the data shows the risk of infection spreading in the northern and western parts of the DRC, almost the entire territory of Liberia, as well as in some parts of Sierra Leone, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, Cameroon and Uganda," the scientists reported the results of the calculation in a scientific article.
Epidemics are also likely to develop in the Central African Republic, parts of Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, and Ethiopia.
The number of new infections in the Democratic Republic of the Congo continues to grow. According to the latest data, 3,605 people have been infected, 1,587 of whom have died. So. thus, the mortality rate from the disease reached 44%. The WHO has recognized this outbreak as the largest ever recorded in the DRC. According to the estimates of the international organization, the pathogen spreads very quickly.
As Andrey Prodeus, chief pediatric allergist and immunologist at the Ministry of Health of the Moscow Region, explained to Izvestia, such forecasts have important practical implications for epidemic prevention. Even the models of previous years with relatively low accuracy helped epidemiologists in their work, and the predictions of modern artificial intelligence systems are many times more accurate than them.
— Any model with an accuracy of more than 70% makes it easier to work. According to such forecasts, preventive measures can be carried out. If there are signs, it makes sense to introduce measures up to quarantine in the zone and vaccinate. This allows us to start responding in advance, before the infection spreads to entire villages, and significantly reduce the scale of a possible epidemic," said Andrei Prodeus.
Calculations also help to determine in advance the territories where quarantine measures, restrictions on movement and vaccination may be required. This allows countries to prepare for possible outbreaks and build up supplies of necessary drugs.
Russian vaccine for Africa
The current outbreak in the DRC is caused by the Ebola strain Bundibugio, for which there is still no specific treatment. Such drugs are currently being developed in several countries around the world, including Russia. As Izvestia previously reported, the vaccine against the current variant of the pathogen, created at the Gamaleya Institute, has already confirmed its protective properties on an artificially created Ebola surrogate. Scientists are ready to continue their work and conduct tests on the real e virus if there is interest from African countries.
The Russian Embassy in Uganda, where the outbreak was extinguished after 20 cases of infection, told Izvestia that the country's authorities were ready to consider cooperation on this issue.
"Uganda would be interested in receiving such assistance as part of the fight against the spread of Ebola hemorrhagic fever. However, as we know, this East African state prefers to receive this kind of support free of charge," the diplomats noted.
The free transfer of the vaccine is quite possible and it will allow for its clinical trials, says Andrey Prodeus.
— First of all, this is a humanitarian action, with the help of which, along with food and other programs, Russia will mark its presence in Africa. Secondly, you have to spend a lot of money on clinical research. If no other costs are required by providing the vaccine, then we will receive a lot of valuable data without paying anything," the doctor said.
Izvestia also sent a request to the Russian Embassy in the DRC about the country's possible interest in the Russian vaccine. They reported that the parties are currently agreeing on a memorandum of cooperation in the field of healthcare. At the same time, the transfer of biological materials, including virus strains, has not yet been discussed, and there have been no official requests from the DRC authorities on this issue.
"At the same time, the Congolese side has previously addressed the Russian Federation with requests for assistance in the field of healthcare, including on the supply of medical equipment and medicines, as well as the possible deployment of Russian specialists," the embassy said in a response.
A record 567 new infections have been recorded in the Democratic Republic of the Congo over the past week. The basic reproductive number is considered to be the main indicator that reflects the speed of the epidemic development. It shows how many people one infected person infects on average. According to calculations by Japanese scientists, as of May 30, 2026, it reached 8.9. However, the researchers themselves note that such a high figure is due to an increase in the number of tests conducted and does not reflect the real situation.
"If the estimated growth rate were real, the observed rate of spread of the Bundibugio virus would be terrifying and would indicate the need for immediate global action," the scientists noted in their study.
The real figure is about 3, which is comparable to data from past outbreaks, experts have calculated.
The figure of 8.9, obtained for a single date, is most likely due to a sharp increase in the number of detected cases, rather than the fact that one patient infects nine people. When analyzing a longer period, the authors of the study obtained a value of about 3.3. Other models show a range from 1.3 to 3.1. Therefore, the working estimate of the virus's contagiousness is now considered R0 at 1.5–3, with a possible increase to 3.3, said Albert Rizvanov, head of the Center for Excellence "Personalized Medicine" at Kazan Federal University.
— Based on these calculations, it cannot be argued that the Bundibugio virus has acquired a fundamentally higher contagiousness. The scale of the outbreak may be explained by the late detection of the first cases, population displacement, hospital and family infection, difficulties in tracing contacts and isolating patients. Genetically, the virus of the current outbreak is indeed different from the variants that circulated earlier, but the presence of mutations in itself does not prove increased transmission between humans, the expert said.
According to the expert, such a conclusion requires comparable data on specific chains of infection, viral load, duration of the infectious period and frequency of infection of close contacts. So far, it is more correct to talk not about the appearance of "super-contagious Ebola", but about the combination of a dangerous virus with extremely unfavorable epidemiological conditions.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
