Depth of construction: what will the US and UK submarine fleets look like in the 2030s

The United States is allocating record amounts to the nuclear submarine construction program. Moreover, we are talking about both missile and attack ships. The UK is also investing in a new phase of building its missile submarine fleet. What exactly and how is developing in Western submarine shipbuilding today, what risks are faced by new submarine construction programs, how they can change the balance of power at sea and how the Russian Navy is able to respond to this - in the Izvestia material.

How will the US and UK submarine forces develop

The U.S. Navy has signed contracts worth $76.6 billion with major manufacturers of nuclear submarines. This is one of the largest investments in the construction of a submarine fleet in the history of the United States. We are talking about the construction programs for five additional Columbia-class nuclear missile submarines of the second series, as well as nine Virginia-class attack submarines of the Block VI series.

The programs adopted by the US Navy include financing the development of the industrial facilities involved for this purpose, with a reserve for the future joint US-British-Australian AUKUS program. This is probably the largest injection of funds into the two largest companies that manufacture nuclear submarines in the United States, Newport News Shipbuilding and General Dynamics Electric Boat. They jointly build each ship, distributing orders between the two shipyards.

Large-scale co-production allowed the US Navy to launch the production of boats with the gradual improvement of each new series, but while maintaining the continuity of the design of the main base units. As of July 2026, the companies have delivered 26 Virginia-class submarines to the fleet, and the total production of boats of this type will be a record for the US Navy.

Columbia-class missile submarines are, of course, considered a priority program for the US Navy, as they form the basis of one of the three components of the American nuclear triad and will replace the aging fleet of Ohio-class submarines in the coming years.

This is all the more important since the Ohio-class boats are beginning to be withdrawn from the fleet. On July 31, the ceremony of decommissioning the Georgia submarines from the US Navy submarine forces took place. The submarine was upgraded from a ballistic missile carrier to a Tomahawk cruise missile carrier and spent 42 years in service. Ohio is starting to leave the navy, and this means the end of an era for the US Navy. Columbia-class missile submarines will begin to replace the old boats. They will receive almost the same missile system with 16 Trident II D5LE ballistic missiles as the old Ohio ones.

Two submarines of the first series of Columbia SSBNs are already under construction. The transfer of the lead ship, the USS District of Columbia (SSBN—826), to the fleet is expected in 2031. Next, the fleet must receive at least 12 submarines of this class in at least two series. Currently, Washington believes that such an amount will be enough to fulfill the tasks of strategic nuclear deterrence.

On the other side of the Atlantic, in the UK, they also actively engaged in the construction of missile submarines. At the end of July, the new government allocated funds for the next stage of the program for the construction of its own Dreadnought-class nuclear missile submarines. The amount of financing amounted to £8.4 billion. In total, the program plans to build four strategic submarines with a displacement of about 17.2 thousand tons each, equipped with Trident II ballistic missiles. The peculiarity of the British naval nuclear shield is that, under an agreement with the United States, American ballistic missiles with British thermonuclear warheads have been used here since the 1980s. The new type of missile carriers will replace the aging Vanguard-class SSBNs in the early 2030s. The total cost of the program to replace the UK's missile submarine fleet may amount to £31 billion, with a reserve of another £10 billion, which is laid down "just in case."

In general, it is in the 2030s that there will be a noticeable renewal of the submarine fleets of the main players in the Atlantic, although the confrontation with China in the Asia-Pacific region is beginning to play an increasingly important role for the United States. And Beijing leaves Washington no choice — the Chinese navy is currently being built at a record pace and is already claiming leadership in the Pacific Ocean. America has a lot to think about here, and it is likely that the authorities may increase their underwater shipbuilding programs in the coming years.

How can the Russian Navy respond

The Russian navy and its submarine forces have been significantly upgraded today. The construction of ships of the latest designs continues. During the 2020s, the Borey-A Project 955A nuclear-powered missile ships currently under construction are expected to join the fleet. In total, there will be at least 12 missile submarines in the fleet in this family. It is likely that there may be more new Boreas and the series of missile carriers will be expanded. Each boat carries 16 Bulava solid-fuel ballistic missiles developed by the Moscow Institute of Thermal Engineering with separable warheads equipped with thermonuclear warheads.

But in addition to the most modern Boreas, several nuclear-powered missile submarines of the 667BDRM project remain in service, each of which carries 16 of the world's most advanced liquid-fueled marine ICBMs of the R-29RMU type. These missiles are characterized by the highest energy and mass perfection and allow them to hit multiple targets at an intercontinental range with a single launch. It is likely that this part of our nuclear missile component will last until the 2030s, and maybe even longer.

At the same time, multipurpose nuclear attack submarines of the Yasen project 885M are being built for the Russian Navy, which can carry both torpedoes and various variants of missile weapons, including Zircon hypersonic missiles. On July 28, 2026, the next Ulyanovsk K-563 PLA of this project was withdrawn from the workshop in Severodvinsk. In total, nine Yasen-M project 885M submarines are currently in service and under construction, and at least 12 similar nuclear submarines will be built in total. In terms of their novelty and combat capabilities, they are in no way inferior to the best American nuclear attack submarines, and even significantly surpass them in terms of the power of their missile salvo.

The U.S. Navy currently does not have hypersonic missile systems in service, and it is unclear when such missiles will appear on overseas submarines. So, at least we are ready for the development of the American submarine forces.