Unnatural selection: which Russian national teams can still qualify for the 2028 Olympics

After another easing of sanctions by the International Olympic Committee (IOC), the process of returning Russian national teams to team sports began. So far, the admission of adult national teams here has only happened in volleyball and water polo, but it is obvious that over time, officials from international federations should somehow respond to the recommendations of Lausanne. Moreover, they were made with an eye to the 2028 Olympics and under the slogan of realizing the right of Russian athletes to participate in the qualification for the Los Angeles Games. However, there is a nuance here — the Olympic qualifying cycle for national teams is usually very long. And it is very difficult to get involved in it "from scratch" two years before the OI. Izvestia tried to figure out in which sports the train has already left, and in which there is still hope for the favor of the federations.

Good chances in volleyball and water polo

A few words about the history of the issue and the current situation. In March 2023, the IOC recommended that Russians be allowed to participate in individual sports without a flag, but retained the ban imposed on team disciplines after the start of the IOC. This selectivity was explained by the allegedly existing "security problems." But in fact, our "commanders" have become victims of Lausanne's half-hearted strategy. That is why, before lifting restrictions on adult Russians, the IOC did this for juniors in December 2025.

An important point: all Lausanne's decisions regarding Russian sports are advisory in nature, and in some federations they may be ignored for a long time. In the case of juniors, the call to lift sanctions in team sports has been heeded in volleyball, curling, field hockey, baseball and softball for six months. Partial admission of children (to individual tournaments) occurred in handball, basketball and football. The total ban remains in effect in the following team sports included in the OI program: ice hockey, rugby-7, lacrosse and flag football. In April 2026, even before the relevant decision of the IOC, we received admission with our flag in adult water polo. And in July, this decision was supported in volleyball.

The International Volleyball Federation has announced that it will restore the rating of Russians that was frozen in 2022, which will greatly facilitate the Olympic selection process. However, we are definitely not participating in its first stage — the men's and women's European Championships in August–September 2026. But there is a great chance to qualify for the 2027 World Cup, where three Olympic games tickets will be awarded. However, the men's part of this tournament will be held in Poland, which guarantees visa problems. However, there will be three more places in Los Angeles 2028 purely by rating, so the probability of our trip to the Classic volleyball Games is high.

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For the beachgoers, 17 of the 24 permits will be distributed according to the rating or in the Olympic qualification series in 2028. Therefore, everything is in our hands here.

As for water polo, the entire competition for quotas for the Games will begin only in 2027. But the Russian women's national team will make their lives much easier if they successfully compete in the World Cup Superfinal in Australia on July 22-26. This may open the way for our girls to the 2027 World Cup, which will become part of the Olympic qualification. The selection system for the Games is multi-stage and variable, and both our national teams will definitely participate in it. Another question is that the last time Russian men received a ticket to the Olympics was in 2004. But the girls have been participating in the Games regularly since 2000 (having missed only the OI-2024 due to the ban) and have a great chance to go there again in 2028.

Theoretical layouts

We can definitely say that in any case we will not go to Los Angeles in men's and women's football. In 2027, we will not be at the men's World Cup of U21, nor in Group A of the Women's League of Nations — in tournaments that are mandatory for the qualification of European national teams. Let me remind you that the Russian women's national team has never qualified for the Olympics in its history, and the last time this happened to our men was back in Soviet times, in 1988.

But in handball, everything is a little more optimistic. We will definitely miss the qualifiers for the 2026 Women's World Cup and the 2027 Men's World Cup, but theoretically we can get to the 2027 Women's World Cup and the 2028 Men's World Cup. Not to mention the Olympic qualifying tournaments, where six quotas will be awarded in the spring of 2028. It's a small matter to remove the iron curtain for adult teams. The International Federation, which has repeatedly supported us during the sanctions period, is still acting very cautiously, not allowing full admission even to juniors. Plus, there will definitely be problems with the Europeans, among whom the positions of unfriendly countries — Norway, Denmark and Germany - are strong.

The International Basketball Federation (FIBA) assumed that the Russian national teams would have the opportunity to qualify for the OI-2028, even if they did not manage to compete in key qualifying tournaments, where we definitely do not get. Most likely, we are talking about our inclusion in the final qualifying competitions in the "classics" (5x5) in 2028. As for 3x3 basketball, the selection format in this young discipline allows us to find different options for our national teams to qualify for Los Angeles. After the victory of both our 3x3 teams at the Nations League tournament in China, if not the chances, then the material for negotiations has increased significantly — only a fundamental decision by FIBA is required.

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There probably won't be any problems with admission in field hockey, baseball, or softball. Another issue is that before the sanctions, our teams did not qualify for the top divisions of the European Championships. So their chances of Olympic selection are low anyway. Not to mention the exotic Russian flag football and lacrosse. We will definitely not play in the HSBC SVNS 2027 World Series qualification in Rugby-7. There are also big doubts about participation in the World Cup 2027. If we are returned, it is unlikely that we will be immediately promoted to the elite division. Thus, there will definitely be no chance of Olympic selection. It's a pity, because before the ban, we had a competitive women's national team that reached the quarterfinals of the OI 2020.

In general, our return to team sports is wonderful. But the IOC's statement that Russian athletes will be given the opportunity to qualify for the OI 2028 is nothing more than good wishes so far. In some sports, this is almost impossible right now. Of course, the organizers of the Games have the opportunity to issue us a special invitation. However, it is difficult to imagine that such an option will become a reality, especially in those federations where they are doing everything possible to delay our return to the world stage for political reasons.