Freezing by calculation: what is behind Kiev's idea to limit the combat zone

Despite the public freezing of diplomatic tracks, the dialogue on Ukraine continues through closed channels. According to Vladimir Putin, Kiev regularly sends new initiatives, trying to find the ground for local truces. So, recently, the enemy proposed to introduce mutual restrictions on attacks deep into the countries. According to military experts, this is only an attempt to reduce the damage caused by the strikes of the Russian Armed Forces and get an operational pause in the conditions of the most difficult situation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the front. And the Kremlin is well aware of the true background of these maneuvers. The Russian army continues its coordinated offensive and breaks into the key defensive lines of Ukrainian militants in Donbas.

Ukraine has offered Russia to stop strikes deep into its territory

Kiev's proposals traditionally include requests for a personal meeting of the leaders, as well as calls for a short-term ceasefire along the line of contact. However, recently new requests have appeared — they clearly show an attempt to reduce the damage caused by the actions of the Russian Armed Forces. In particular, the Ukrainian representatives took the initiative to mutually reject strikes deep into the territories.

— It is clear why this proposal is being made. Because our retaliatory strikes deep into the territory of Ukraine are much more powerful, sensitive and, frankly, destructive, leading to really serious consequences for the Kiev regime," Vladimir Putin said, answering questions from Vesti journalist Pavel Zarubin on June 28.

If they had agreed to abandon strikes deep into the country, it would have given Ukraine an advantage, military expert Vladislav Shurygin explained to Izvestia.

"The Ukrainian Armed Forces are not capable of hitting with such intensity and depth as our UAVs and missiles that are shooting through the entire territory of Ukraine," he says. — For the enemy, stopping long—range strikes is an opportunity to secure their rear and prolong the fighting indefinitely. Right now, the advantage is on our side, especially in terms of missiles, range and effectiveness of hitting targets. With the help of Europe, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are increasing the number of UAVs, but they have not caught up with us.

An attempt to localize the front

Kiev's second proposal looks even more specific: to limit the combat zone exclusively to the borders of four new regions of Russia — the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions. It is proposed to stop fighting along the rest of the front.

"If we do this, it will enable the Ukrainian Armed Forces to withdraw their troops from the Mykolaiv region, Dnipropetrovsk region, Kharkiv and Sumy regions, as well as from some sections of the state border and transfer these units to the four above—mentioned regions," the Russian president said.

However, the Russian leadership explicitly states that Moscow's plans do not include saving the Kiev regime.

Limiting military operations to only four regions is definitely beneficial to our opponent, Vladislav Shurygin agrees.

— Now the Ukrainian army is spread all over the front — it is more than 1 thousand km, — he explained. — If the fighting is limited to only four regions, they will be able to transfer about two thirds of the front to the patrol and border guard mode. As a result, this will allow them to concentrate more forces on a narrower area.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces will have the opportunity to increase the density of troops, increase combat capabilities, and even begin forming reserves to create groups that will then try to launch counterattacks, the expert noted. Over the past two and a half years, it has been a serious shortage of infantry that has prevented the Ukrainian Armed Forces from conducting counteroffensive operations.

— Having received reserves, they will probably try to launch a counterattack to cut off several directions. For example, in the Crimea and the Bryansk region. In the current situation, we cannot be led by the enemy," Vladislav Shurygin summed up.

Russia "attentively treats every proposal that comes from that side," but it has no illusions, the head of state noted. The current situation at the front indicates that the enemy may be preparing deceptive maneuvers.

We are talking about possible attempts by the Ukrainian Armed Forces to organize unexpected, as expected in Kiev, diversionary attacks. Special Operations Forces may be deployed for these purposes, and the sorties themselves will be limited. The main objective of such demonstrative actions on the part of Ukraine is to disperse Russian resources and delay the units of the Russian Armed Forces from fulfilling a key strategic task: the complete liberation of Donbass and Novorossiya, the president noted.

The Russian Armed Forces are breaking into the "impregnable" defensive rampart of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Donbass

Russian troops are conducting a coordinated offensive along the entire line of contact, demonstrating high activity and pace of advance. Key changes are being recorded in the Donbas, where the enemy's defensive rampart is collapsing, as well as on the northern borders, where the formation of a buffer zone continues.

As Vladimir Putin stressed, the actions of the Sever group in the Sumy and Volchansk directions are subordinated to a clear task — the creation of a security zone along the borders of Russia. The President recalled that it was installed after the Ukrainian Armed Forces invaded the Kursk region, and added: "The Ukrainian regime will pay for its crimes with the loss of territories."

According to the head of state, the advance troops approached Sumy at a distance of 10.5 km.

— We do not have any political plans for this city and the region as a whole. We will be guided by the proposals of the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff. The troops in this area are acting actively, decisively, and moving at a fast pace," he said.

The dynamics is also confirmed by the Ministry of Defense, stating an improvement in the tactical position of the "northerners" and attacks on the reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Sumy and Kharkiv regions.

The Zapad group is advancing in several areas at once. Vladimir Putin described in detail the tactical trap on the left bank of the Oskol River in the area of the village of Rubtsy, where a motley group of about 5,000 people of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is blocked.

— The 1st tank Army of the Russian Armed Forces is coming from above and pressing the enemy from the north. The 3rd Motorized Rifle Division is pressing in from the east, and the 144th Division is pressing in from the south. And until the complete encirclement, everything is under fire control, but until the complete, final encirclement, there remains about 2 km. The 144th division is engaged in solving this problem, and I believe that it will solve it successfully," he noted.

The President predicted that the fate of the Ukrainian military trapped by the river awaits their predecessors, who were completely destroyed earlier in the Kupyansk-Uzlovoye area. In turn, the military department supplemented the picture, stating that the attack aircraft of the 25th army are conducting the final sweep of the Red Estuary.

The main blow now falls on the most powerful defensive system Slavyansk — Kramatorsk — Druzhkovka — Konstantinovka, which the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been building for almost 10 years. This frontier was considered impregnable, but now it is bursting at the seams. Vladimir Putin highlighted several decisive breakthroughs: in the Slavyansk direction, the 3rd army of the "southern" entered Nikolaevka, and in Konstantinovka, Russian fighters have already taken control of 96% of the city limits. According to the president, the 6th division bypassed the city and broke into Alekseevo-Druzhkovka, from where Kramatorsk is only 4 km away, and the enemy has already begun to urgently evacuate industrial enterprises from this agglomeration.

In the Dobropolye direction, the fighters of the Center group performed an incredible feat, breaking through a prepared three-row line of engineering barriers 400 m deep, and stood at the Dobropolye gate.

— And from the north, outside the city of Dobropillya, I draw your attention to this, the Ukrainian Armed Forces do not have pre-prepared defensive lines. They are now trying to create local strongholds in a hurry. And it's 35 km from Dobropillya to the state border," said Vladimir Putin.

On the southern flank, the initiative also remains with the Russian army. Vladimir Putin highlighted the actions of the Vostok group under the command of Colonel-General Andrei Ivanaev. The enemy has deployed its best Donetsk reserves to the Zaporozhye area, but Russian troops are still advancing on a wide front, overcoming up to 1300 m daily. The success of the Vostok is also confirmed by the Ministry of Defense in its summary, announcing the liberation of the settlement of Bogodarovka. At the same time, as the president stated, the Dnepr group is successfully advancing in the Orekhovsky direction and along the coast of the Kakhovsky reservoir towards Zaporizhia.

The reasons for the success of the Russian army

The advance of Russian troops in key areas, especially in the area of the Kramatorsk-Slavyansk agglomeration, is due to three fundamental factors: the quality of human resources, technical dominance and systemic superiority in firepower, according to military expert Boris Jerelievsky.

— Motivational potential and recruitment are the key difference between the current state of the two armies. If the Armed Forces of Ukraine relies on strict forced mobilization, where recruits are often demoralized even at the stage of passing the TCC and perceive being sent to the front line as a one-way ticket, then in Russian units the backbone is made up of volunteer contractors. These are people who have made an informed decision, which directly affects their combat stability, initiative and willingness to perform complex tasks," he recalled.

At the current stage, the Russian side is not facing the critical shortage of personnel that is currently paralyzing the Ukrainian defense. The stable influx of trained fighters allows you to keep the initiative and exert constant pressure, the expert said.

— Moving forward is impossible without reliable fire support. Here, the superiority of the Russian Armed Forces is complex," Boris Jerelievsky added. — This is the unhindered work of the Aerospace Forces destroying enemy fortifications, a qualitative and quantitative breakthrough in the field of UAVs, where parity has been replaced by Russia's obvious leadership, as well as classical superiority in caliber and volume of artillery ammunition.

Together, these components create a positive effect: surpassing the enemy in equipment and weapons, Russian fighters rely on a higher moral and psychological tone, which allows them to methodically break into even deeply layered defensive lines.

While the army is breaking down fortifications on the ground, aviation, rocket launchers and heavy artillery are burning out the enemy's rear. According to the official report of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, over the past day, the total losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine exceeded 1.5 thousand soldiers. Key fuel, energy and transport infrastructure facilities were hit, storage bases and launch sites for long-range drones in 137 areas were destroyed, and air defense systems intercepted 12 guided aerial bombs and shot down 415 enemy drones.