These are the bases: Finland is preparing a springboard for nuclear weapons
The deployment of nuclear weapons in Finland may begin from an air base in Rovaniemi, 147 km from the border with the Russian Federation, experts told Izvestia. President Alexander Stubb approved amendments allowing the import and storage of nuclear weapons in the country. The Russian Embassy told Izvestia that they have not yet seen any direct signs of preparations for the deployment of weapons. However, the base will soon receive F-35A fighters capable of carrying American B61-12 bombs. Moreover, Helsinki is interested in a nuclear deterrence program under the auspices of France. Norway and Denmark have already joined it. How and why Northern Europe increases the risks to nuclear safety — in the Izvestia article.
Finland creates conditions for nuclear weapons deployment
The recent actions of the Finnish authorities have actually paved the way for the deployment of nuclear weapons. On June 26, President Alexander Stubb approved amendments allowing its import and storage in the country. The legal ban on such actions has existed for almost 40 years. The current decision was made due to allegedly growing security threats in order to "strengthen deterrence," Bloomberg wrote.
Alexander Stubb
Until now, Finland has remained almost the only NATO country with such a strict internal ban. Removing it, of course, does not mean that the weapon will appear tomorrow.
"There are no external signs of purposeful preparation of the Finnish infrastructure for the deployment of nuclear weapons here at the current stage," the Russian Embassy in Finland told Izvestia. Nevertheless, even the theoretical possibility of its appearance has a serious impact on security in the Baltic—Arctic region, and Moscow will have to take this into account.
Finnish Defense Minister Antti Hyakkanen emphasized that the "nuclear" reform strengthens not only Finnish defense, but also the nuclear deterrence of the entire alliance.
Obviously, such actions are dictated by the North Atlantic Alliance, which Finland joined in April 2023. In December, an agreement on defense cooperation was signed with Washington.: The United States has gained access to 15 military installations, including four air bases.
— If a decision is made, the first locations for the deployment of [nuclear weapons] may be air bases from the list of agreed areas under the Finnish-American defense cooperation agreement. But so far this is unlikely," Nikita Lipunov, a junior researcher at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies, explained to Izvestia.
Nevertheless, it is at one of these bases — Rovaniemi in Lapland — that the first Finnish F-35A, American—made fifth-generation multirole fighters, will be based. All 64 ordered aircraft will be delivered by 2030. The F-35A is the only fifth—generation fighter certified for the use of the American B61-12 nuclear bomb. Its maximum capacity is about 50 kilotons. According to media reports, it is the B61 family of bombs that form the basis of the American tactical nuclear arsenal in Europe.
It is 415 km from the Rovaniemi base to Murmansk, 670 km to Petrozavodsk, and only 147 km to the border with the Russian Federation.
Will there be nuclear weapons in Finland
Nevertheless, the deployment of nuclear warheads in Finland is unlikely, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. At least because there are no "NATO" nuclear weapons as such.
— We are not talking about NATO nuclear weapons, but about American ones. The United States is the only NATO country that currently has tactical nuclear weapons in its classical sense, and they are stored in Europe," military expert Ilya Kramnik said in a conversation with Izvestia. — But I don't think he will be taken to Finland. It's quite dangerous.: The country borders closely on Russia, and the potential storage base will be in the direct line of sight. She can be one of the first to be destroyed.
According to Kramnik, there are two parallel processes that are important to keep separate.
— The first is American military planning: is the United States going to deploy something else in Europe? Apparently, they are not going to (the United States recently refused to deploy Tomahawk missiles in Germany. — Ed.). The second is actually a Finnish initiative, and it is purely political in nature. That's what we're dealing with," he stressed.
Nikita Lipunov agrees with this interpretation. He calls the lifting of the ban a logical continuation of the course that Helsinki took when joining the alliance, "without reservations and self—restrictions."
"There are no plans to deploy nuclear weapons in Finland either in the short or medium term," the expert noted. — In any case, the decision on deployment will not be made in Helsinki, but in the capital of one of the NATO nuclear powers, most likely in Washington. So far, there have been no significant changes in American policy on the deployment of nuclear weapons in Europe, so Finland's actions should be seen as a demonstration of its readiness to fully participate in NATO's nuclear deterrence.
However, there is also a workaround that more and more countries are taking — the French nuclear deterrence program. Theoretically, it is faster: Paris is not bound by NATO approval procedures. In March, French President Emmanuel Macron announced the transition to the concept of "advanced deterrence." For the first time since 1992, France is increasing its arsenal, ceasing to disclose its exact size and allowing the temporary deployment of aircraft, including those with nuclear warheads, on the territory of the Allies. At the same time, only Paris has the right to use weapons.
The circle of participants in this initiative is growing. On May 27, the ninth country, Norway, joined the program. Previously, the United Kingdom, Germany, Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Greece, Sweden and Denmark. In early June, Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo admitted that Helsinki was also interested in the French program.
But for Finland, this path runs into technical limitations: French weapons are not adapted to the F-35s that the country buys, and it would be necessary to deploy Rafale fighters with all the related infrastructure on Finnish bases. And the experts themselves are skeptical about this prospect.
— Finland's involvement in the French program is unlikely, — says Lipunov. — Washington remains the guarantor of Helsinki's security and its key security partner.
A separate question is why Finland itself needs such a step. The country lifts the ban on the import of nuclear weapons at a time when its own president publicly expresses doubts that it will have to fight Russia at all, and recognizes the need for dialogue with Moscow. On June 7, Alexander Stubb, in an interview with the Swiss Neue Zürcher Zeitung, stated that he did not believe that Russia was preparing for an attack, stressing that he was reading all intelligence reports. It is obvious that Helsinki's position on nuclear is motivated by political considerations, not by the presence of real threats.
—Through deep integration into the alliance's military system, Finland seeks to play a leading role in deterring Moscow, demonstrating strength and willingness to escalate," Lipunov explained. — This is a protective measure, as it is understood in Helsinki itself.
It turns out that it's not about the weapon itself, but about the formal willingness to accept it: this is how Helsinki shows its determination and tries to gain military and political weight in the alliance. However, not everyone in Finland shares this calculation. According to a spring YouGov poll, the majority of Finns are against the appearance of nuclear weapons on their land.
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