Bread signs: partners asked Russia to increase fertilizer supplies
Due to the situation in the Middle East, the vast majority of Russia's partners have asked for increased supplies of nitrogen and phosphorus group fertilizers, Russian Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut told Izvestia. According to her, such a request was received, in particular, from Ethiopia, and negotiations are underway on this issue. At the same time, Moscow offers partners to switch to three-year contracts. Experts believe that such a measure will stabilize the situation on the world market and strengthen Russia's influence. The main buyers of Russian fertilizers include Brazil, India, and China, but demand is growing in Africa. The United States and the EU also cannot refuse supplies from the Russian Federation.
To which countries will the Russian Federation increase the supply of fertilizers
Most of Russia's partners have asked it to increase the supply of nitrogen and phosphorus group fertilizers due to the situation in the Middle East, Russian Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut told Izvestia. She stressed that Moscow hopes to meet the demand of its key partners.
— After the situation in the Middle East, the vast majority of our partners asked for an increase in the supply of nitrogen group and phosphorus group [fertilizers]. In general, everything is stable with potash fertilizers, potash fertilizers do not depend more on the situation in the Middle East. The nitrogen group is the key reason for the requests, as well as complex fertilizers, which also have a nitrogen component," said Lut.
According to her, for example, Ethiopia has asked Russia to supply a large amount of fertilizers. However, it is difficult to provide the requested amount at once, so Moscow suggests switching to medium-term contracts, and this format is currently being discussed with Addis Ababa.
— With all the partner countries with which we are already working, we are now considering the possibility of switching to preferably three-year contracts. The price formula and pricing are a separate issue. In order to have medium-term [contracts], our manufacturers are ready for this. We see the demand. There is always a demand for our fertilizers, now it is increased. We hope that we will be able to meet the needs of all our key partners," Oksana Lut emphasized.
Russia is a world leader in the export of mineral fertilizers, with a global market share of about 20%. In 2025, Russian enterprises set a new record by producing 65.5 million tons, of which 43 million were exported. The key buyers of all groups of mineral fertilizers in 2025 were Brazil, India and China. Russia has also increased its share in the supply of nitrogen fertilizers to the United States to 35%, and high demand remains in the EU, despite import duties against Russian additives.
Mineral fertilizers include nitrogen (ammonium nitrate, carbamide, ammonium sulfate), phosphorous (superphosphate, phosphoric flour) and potash (potassium sulfate and potassium chloride). Complex mineral fertilizers are also distinguished separately, which consist of several elements. A special group consists of organic fertilizers of natural origin.
The conflict in the Middle East has led to a sharp increase in energy prices, which affects the production of nitrogen fertilizers. The production of phosphorous fertilizers is affected by the shortage of sulfur, which began due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The Persian Gulf countries account for the production of about 55 million tons of mineral fertilizers.
Now the United States and Iran have practically agreed to unblock shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — a peace memorandum is due to be signed in Switzerland on June 19. However, the risks of disruption of possible agreements still remain. In addition, even if the United States and Iran reach an agreement, it will not lead to an immediate and sharp drop in global fertilizer prices. The shortage of raw materials and finished products accumulated during the blockade in global warehouses is so great that new supplies will first go to fill these voids, rather than reduce the cost.
— Shortfalls in recent months have accounted for about a third of the total global trade in mineral fertilizers. This applies to basic fertilizers, such as phosphorous and nitrogen fertilizers, and complex fertilizers. There is a huge crisis with the supply of sulfur, a key raw material for the production of phosphorous fertilizers. Its volumes decreased by 46%, which led to an incomparably higher price increase and simply physical unavailability," Konstantin Kuguchin, an expert economist and lecturer at MGIMO of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told Izvestia.
First of all, countries such as Brazil, India, Turkey, Vietnam and Indonesia could request an increase in the supply of nitrogen fertilizers. They rely on Russia as one of the largest producers of nitrogen fertilizers with a relatively predictable price and resource base, Galina Platunina, Deputy head of the Department of Digital Economics, Management and Business Technologies at MTUCI, told Izvestia.
What does the transition to medium-term contracts mean?
The transition to medium-term contracts is also associated with the growing demand for mineral fertilizers. According to Platunina, in the current nitrogen fertilizer supply model, short-term seasonal or annual contracts or spot transactions are most often used. Such a system, of course, gives flexibility, but it makes the market more nervous, because prices can fluctuate sharply and supplies can be disrupted. The transition to three-year contracts will be a strategic step with several economic effects.
— Russia gets fixed sales markets, and this reduces the risks of overproduction and logistical disruptions. Such contracts form stable trade relations and increase Russia's influence on the global fertilizer market. If we consider it from the point of view of production, manufacturers can more accurately plan capacity utilization, investments and purchases of raw materials," the expert emphasized.
The positive Russian experience in concluding long-term deals in the energy markets can be transferred to the field of fertilizer supply, Konstantin Kuguchin added. Global instability in the markets due to military conflicts also contributes to this step.
The ability of the Russian Federation to meet the growing demand remains an important issue. Quotas for the export of nitrogen and compound fertilizers have been in effect in Russia since 2021 as one of the measures to curb rising food prices. In the first quarter of 2026 alone, Russia exported 9.6 million tons of mineral fertilizers worth $3.6 billion. In the period from June 1 to November 30, exporters can supply 20 million tons, including 8.7 million tons of nitrogen fertilizers.
— In conditions when the food crisis coincided with the energy crisis, interest in the supply of fertilizers from Russia logically arises in literally all countries, both in traditional and relatively new growing markets, such as African countries. Despite all the problems, Russia is able to provide both domestic and international supplies," says Galina Platunina.
Attempts by Western countries to impose direct and harsh sanctions against Russian fertilizers have failed, as they themselves are critically dependent on supplies from the Russian Federation. Moscow guarantees the food security of the largest countries in Asia and Latin America, ensuring reliable supplies. In addition, the Russian Federation has repeatedly donated fertilizers to the poorest countries. The crisis in the Middle East will strengthen Russia's leading role in the food sector and increase its global influence.
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