Pause: Why the US-Iran deal does not guarantee peace

The agreement between the United States and Iran will not become a full-fledged solution to the conflict and will not change the balance of power in the Middle East, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. The memorandum agreed by the parties on June 14 may put the war on pause and open the Strait of Hormuz, but key issues such as Tehran's nuclear program, sanctions against Iran and the country's role in regional conflicts will remain the subject of further negotiations. The risk of a new escalation will also persist, as the scenario being implemented by Washington and Tehran could be a blow to Israel's interests.

Memorandum of the USA and Iran

Washington and Tehran have agreed on a memorandum that should form the basis for a further settlement of the conflict. President of the Islamic Republic Masoud Peseshkian announced the decision of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran to continue negotiations with the United States.

Donald Trump called Vladimir Putin on June 14 and noted that the negotiation process was accompanied by serious difficulties, and progress became possible with the participation of intermediaries, including Pakistan and Qatar. But also with the involvement of Russia, which the head of the White House thanked for suggestions on finding solutions. For their part, Moscow expressed satisfaction with reducing the risks of escalation and its readiness to continue working to stabilize the situation.

However, the document itself will not change the balance of power in the region, says orientalist Elena Suponina. According to her, the memorandum remains too general, and the key issues are put out of brackets.

Alexander Kargin, an international expert, also believes that the memorandum is only a record of the parties' intentions to reach a more detailed agreement in the future. Although the document contains an important point about the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. This is beneficial both to Iran, which is currently unable to fully trade oil, and to the US allies in the Persian Gulf, who are incurring costs due to shipping restrictions.

"As for the topic of nuclear weapons, we will have to wait until the parties finally resolve this issue," Kargin said.

But even a limited memorandum can be a political success for Tehran, says Farhad Ibrahimov, a lecturer at the RUDN University Faculty of Economics. According to him, Iran was able to withstand the pressure of the United States and Israel, and Washington's goals regarding the Islamic Republic have not been achieved.

The document signing process

Indirect negotiations between the United States and Iran with the participation of intermediaries have been going on since the end of March, and the specific format of the document has been discussed since at least the beginning of May. On May 28, according to media reports, the negotiators had already agreed on a 60-day memorandum, but the document needed the approval of Donald Trump. According to Marine Le Pen, chairman of the National Union faction in the French National Assembly, the words about a close deal have already been heard at least 39 times.

Almost every disruption of the process was accompanied by an exchange of blows. One of the latest episodes was Iran's shooting down of an American Apache helicopter in the Strait of Hormuz. At least this version was put forward by the United States. Although it was actively discussed in the media that the helicopter crashed when it was chasing an Iranian drone: the explosion of the UAV led to the fall of the American side. After that, the United States attacked targets in Iran.

At the same time, the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah periodically resumed.

Moreover, in the current situation, Israel may remain the main supporter of the continuation of the war. The leadership of this country fears that Tehran may eventually retain its political influence and military capabilities. Many opponents of the deal are confident that the memorandum will be a respite for the Islamic Republic of Iran to increase its capacity.

But Israel is unlikely to launch an attack against Iran on its own, without the support of the United States. As well as to continue the active struggle against Hezbollah. It is difficult to imagine that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would decide to aggravate relations with Washington in order to continue the conflict with the Shiite movement, Alexander Kargin noted.

Anyway, the Israeli authorities fear that Washington is abandoning military pressure on Tehran too soon. The media, citing senior Israeli officials, reported that the memorandum, in their assessment, leaves unanswered key issues of Israel's security and may weaken the leverage of the United States on Iran.

But Trump, according to experts, is seeking to get out of the conflict, since it has not been possible to achieve military success against Iran. In this sense, Ibrahimov believes, a possible agreement can be perceived in the region as a recognition of the stability of the Iranian system.

Anyway, the key issue for Israel remains the Iranian nuclear program, but this point will be postponed to the next stage of negotiations — after the memorandum.

What does this mean for Moscow

In any case, the ceasefire in the Persian Gulf is positive for Russia, Elena Suponina believes.

"Russia has benefited from higher oil prices, but the long—term conflict in the Persian Gulf carries more risks than benefits, both for the global economy and for any of the participants in the global market, including Russia," she told Izvestia.

Alexander Kargin believes that the memorandum will not have a direct impact on Russia: Moscow does not depend on the Strait of Hormuz, but its opening may slightly lower oil prices.

At the same time, a sharp drop in prices, in his opinion, should not be expected. The market has realized that the closure of Hormuz is possible, so this risk will now be included in the price of oil. After the current crisis, the Gulf states will actively seek new routes to reduce their dependence on this artery.

Riyadh already has the East–West oil pipeline to the Red Sea, and Abu Dhabi has the Habshan–Fujairah route to the Gulf of Oman. The UAE is accelerating the construction of a new pipeline to Fujairah to boost exports bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Other Gulf producers, including Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, and Bahrain, remain much more dependent on this bottleneck.

The crisis also accelerated the militarization of the region, as the Gulf states saw in practice the inability of the United States to protect them from Iranian attacks. Therefore, even with the signing of the memorandum, they will seek to strengthen air defense and their own military capabilities.

According to Ibragimov, one should not be too optimistic about the signing of the memorandum. Even after its conclusion, the United States may again accuse Iran of aggressive behavior.

Thus, the memorandum will not end the conflict, but only give the parties a pause — and it will depend on how they use this time whether it becomes the beginning of a settlement or preparation for a new round of escalation.