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- Like raw materials in oil: treasury will receive more than 2.5 trillion by the end of the year from expensive oil
Like raw materials in oil: treasury will receive more than 2.5 trillion by the end of the year from expensive oil
Despite the statements about the upcoming truce in the Middle East, it is unlikely that a new round of conflict will end quickly, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. If the fighting continues until the end of the year, the average Urals price can reach $80-85 per barrel. In this case, the treasury will be able to receive additional revenues of at least 2.5 trillion. However, this will not completely solve the problem of the budget deficit — it already stands at 6 trillion. How the authorities can close the shortage is in the Izvestia article.
How budget revenues will change
The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East has been going on for more than 100 days. In recent days, an acute phase of clashes between Iran and Israel has broken out. On June 7, Donald Trump said that after launching a missile attack on the Jewish state, Tehran should focus on negotiations. Later, on June 9, he announced that Israel and Iran had agreed to refrain from new attacks against each other for at least the next week.
On June 10, the US president stressed that Iran had delayed the agreement for too long and would now pay for it. In general, the American leader has managed to announce at least 37 times during the entire conflict in the Middle East that Washington and Tehran are close to signing a peace deal, CNN has calculated. It is assumed that he is either trying to calm the financial markets, or believes that he can really bring such a scenario to life.
However, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe that the military conflict in the Middle East will not be resolved in the coming months. Most of them are confident that the fighting will last at least until the end of the year. Polymarket forecast market players also believe that a permanent peace agreement between Washington and Tehran may be concluded only by December 31. The probability of such events there is estimated at 67%. They have already put $9.3 million on this.
The clashes in the Middle East have pushed up oil prices. In almost 3.5 months, Brent has gained more than a quarter — almost $94 per barrel, and the Urals price has soared 1.5 times to $88.5 per barrel (by 20:00 Moscow time on June 10). Over the past 100 days, both oil brands have been rising above $110 per barrel.
If the conflict over Iran continues until the end of the year, the average oil price in 2026 will jump sharply compared to last year (at that time, Russian crude was sold for $55.6 per barrel). In the same year, Urals, under such circumstances, will cost on average about $ 80-85 per barrel, and Brent — slightly higher — $ 90-105, follows from the average estimate of experts. The editorial board clarified in the Ministry of Energy whether the agency plans to raise expectations of prices for raw materials.
The federal budget for this year was designed based on $59. It is based on this indicator that the planned volume of oil and gas revenues is 8.9 trillion rubles.
However, if the conflict drags on, the average Urals price for the year, taking into account the past months, may reach about $78-84, says Freedom Global analyst Vladimir Chernov.
According to his estimates, one dollar in the average annual oil price will bring the treasury about 230 billion. He explained that it can be calculated as follows. According to the Ministry of Finance, oil and gas revenues in 2025 amounted to almost 8.5 trillion against 11.1 trillion a year earlier. At the same time, the Ministry of Energy estimated the average annual price of Urals last year at $55.6 per barrel. In 2024, it cost $66.6. If you divide the difference of 2.6 trillion rubles by $11 per barrel of lower oil prices, you get about 230 billion rubles in revenue or losses.
However, there is an important caveat: fuel revenue receipts also depend on the ruble exchange rate, export volumes, and the Urals discount. So, since the beginning of the year, the national currency has strengthened by almost 10%, to 71.73 rubles/$.
If we take into account all these components, then by the end of the year the budget may receive an additional 2-2.6 trillion from expensive oil, Vladimir Chernov believes. It is unlikely that it will work out more precisely because of the strong ruble, lower exports and the same discount on Urals. At the same time, economist Olga Gogaladze gave a more positive assessment — 3.3–3.9 trillion. At the same time, a declination to the lower boundary is most likely.
A quick resolution of the situation in the Middle East and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz are unlikely, experts say. But even in this scenario, the price of oil is unlikely to instantly roll back. According to analysts, in this case, the average price of Urals this year will be $ 60-65 per barrel, and Brent — about $ 70-75. In this scenario, the budget may receive about 1 trillion.
The press service of the Ministry of Finance informed Izvestia that it was too early to give estimates. Revenue dynamics largely depends on the development of the external economic situation, including the situation on the global oil market, they added.
And how will the authorities cover the deficit
Additional revenues from expensive oil are unlikely to be able to cover a significant part of the treasury deficit. According to the Ministry of Finance, in the first five months of 2026, the shortfall in the financial plan reached 6 trillion. But it cannot be said that it will remain like this until the end of the year: money is spent differently over the course of 12 months.
In recent years, Russia has been trying to reduce its dependence on oil and gas revenues. As President Vladimir Putin noted at the SPIEF, a few years ago, the share of Russia's GDP related to oil and gas was at the level of 45-46%. For comparison, it has now halved to 23%. He explained that other Russian-made industries are also suffering from high fuel prices, so it is necessary to maintain a balance.
Now the Russian authorities are trying to solve the budget deficit problem not only through the oil sector. For example, the Federal Tax Service has strengthened control over large taxpayers. We are talking about companies with an income of more than 10 billion rubles annually. In the first three months of 2026, the number of on-site inspections tripled compared to the first quarter of last year, to 42 versus 13. At the same time, the amount of additional contributions increased almost eight times — to 9.4 billion, according to the data of the tax service.
Also on June 8, it became known that the government submitted to the State Duma a draft amendment to the Budget Code. One of them proposes to allow the Ministry of Finance to borrow in the domestic market above the limit of the national debt stipulated by the financial plan. This gives the agency the opportunity to quickly increase the issuance of OFZs with a hole in the budget, explained Vladimir Chernov from Freedom Global.
In addition, the government is taking other measures — it is whitewashing the economy, reviewing the parameters of a number of investment projects and reducing the cost of administrative staff in departments, said Vladimir Klimanov, director of the IPEI Regional Policy Center at the Presidential Academy.
If the treasury deficit cannot be closed by such means, then it is worthwhile to resort to privatization and the use of balances on budget accounts. However, the possibilities for selling state property are limited, and the remaining funds are linked to the National Welfare Fund (NWF), the liquid part of which is already small, and with high oil prices, the rules apply for its accumulation rather than withdrawal of money, Vladimir Klimanov added.
This means that the main focus should be to increase debt obligations (through the issuance of new OFZs), because the burden level is at a fairly safe level and does not reach 20% of GDP, the expert noted.
However, this option has a number of risks: an increase in the issue of government bonds increases the burden on the debt market — in order to attract investors, it will be necessary to offer higher yields and take into account the level of the key rate (now it is 14.5%), Vladimir Chernov added. According to him, excessive borrowing can lead to an increase in the cost of servicing government debt, lower prices for OFZs and an outflow of liquidity from corporate borrowers.
In general, additional oil and gas revenues will not be able to completely close the budget deficit. However, the authorities still have options. By the way, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said at the SPIEF that the budget deficit would increase slightly. But adjusting the parameters of the financial plan "should not lead to significant changes in the volume of domestic borrowings."
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