- Статьи
- Economy
- Added value: increased control over marketplaces will bring their prices closer to offline
Added value: increased control over marketplaces will bring their prices closer to offline
Stricter tax controls over marketplaces will lead to a reduction in the price gap between online platforms and traditional retail, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. Currently, online products are on average 15-30% cheaper, but this advantage may decrease by two to three times. Starting in October 2026, the platforms will begin transmitting monthly sales turnover data to the Federal Tax Service, as well as checking their activities and monitoring labeling. At the same time, experts do not expect a quick return of customers to the offline segment - rather, we are talking about a slowdown in the growth of online commerce. What goods may rise in price and whether the new system will lead to sellers leaving the sites — in the Izvestia article.
How much can the price of goods on marketplaces rise?
Starting in October 2026, the law on the platform economy will come into force in Russia, which will change the rules of operation of marketplaces and strengthen market control.
Now the sites are required to conclude electronic contracts with sellers and owners of order pick-up points and verify them through state registers. In addition, it will no longer be possible to unilaterally change commissions and terms of cooperation without prior notice. Price reduction at the expense of the seller will be possible only with his consent. Marketplaces will have to monitor the availability of certificates and labels, as well as transmit monthly sales turnover data to the Federal Tax Service.
As early as 2025, the sites were supposed to provide the tax with data on sellers with signs of fragmentation and underestimation of revenue. The experiment was extended to 2026. Ozon, Wildberries, Avito, Megamarket and Yandex Market are participating in it (the editors have sent them requests). Starting in October, according to the amendments, the platforms will regularly share information about the turnover of all sellers.
The experiment has already yielded results — it helped to identify tax avoidance schemes and led to voluntary surcharges, said Alexey Krylov, an expert at the Chamber of Commerce and Industry Council on financial Market and investments. According to him, this increased budget revenues, but at the same time reduced the sellers' profits.
The Federal Tax Service emphasizes that the experiment on data exchange with marketplaces is aimed not at tightening control, but at leveling the conditions of competition. The focus is shifting towards analytics and prevention: companies will be able to correct their reports before inspections. The agency is developing a system for identifying sellers and risk criteria by which sites will notify about possible violations, the service told Izvestia. This approach will reduce the burden on bona fide businesses, reduce the proportion of violators, and increase trust in platforms.
Usually, products on marketplaces are cheaper than in offline retail: the difference can reach 15-25% or more, said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global. This is due to lower costs — in particular, for rent and logistics — as well as a flexible pricing policy in which algorithms automatically adjust the cost depending on demand.
However, experts predict that this price gap will narrow. In the electronics segment, it reaches 30%, said Svetlana Karpova, professor at the Faculty of Higher School of Management at the Financial University. According to her estimates, the difference may decrease by two to three times — up to 5-10%.
Tax consultant Alla Milyutina added that prices for clothing and household goods are about a third lower. In general, according to her, the difference can be reduced by about one and a half to two times. Financial advisor and founder of Rodin.Alexey Rodin also believes that the gap usually stays at 10-20% and will eventually decrease by about half.
According to Yaroslav Kabakov, Director of Strategy at Finam IC, part of the low prices on marketplaces is due to sellers' tax optimization. As controls are tightened, the cost of goods may increase by 5-15%, and in some categories — up to 20-30%.
A significant share of online trading is still occupied by "gray" schemes - from 35 to 75%, noted economist Andrei Barkhota. According to him, they largely form the current level of discounts. With increased market transparency, the price gap between online and offline retail may decrease by two to three times, the expert agreed.
There is a price gap between marketplaces and traditional retail, but it is not related to tax evasion, but to competition, scale and efficient logistics, said the president of the Association of Digital Platforms (ADC) Oraz Durdyev. According to him, direct interaction with manufacturers makes it possible to keep prices lower.
The expert called the increase in transparency a natural step: according to him, for bona fide sellers, the changes will be minimal. At the same time, ADC prices are not expected to rise. They stressed that marketplaces will remain accessible and strengthen customer trust.
Izvestia sent requests to the Federal Tax Service and the Ministry of Energy.
How will the control affect sellers
Savings on marketplaces are formed not only due to lower costs, but also due to tax schemes, said tax consultant Alla Milyutina. According to her, sellers often underestimate revenue, split up businesses, or work through unregistered sole proprietors. Online control is weaker than in traditional retail, so there are more opportunities for optimization.
At the same time, it is easier to identify such schemes on platforms: any action leaves a digital footprint that can be tracked, the expert emphasized. For example, one supplier can divide sales into several sole proprietors by product category, but the platform sees a match between IP addresses, logistics, and supplies. This allows us to prove the artificial division of business.
As a result, the role of marketplaces is being transformed.: they actually become "digital inspectors" through which the tax authorities receive data on each transaction, said Svetlana Karpova from the Financial University. According to her, opportunities to hide revenue will be minimized, and interconnected accounts will begin to be identified automatically. In addition, the product will simply not be allowed to be sold without labeling, and fines will be sent directly to your personal account.
Tax changes also create additional pressure. A phased reduction in the threshold for VAT exemption has already begun — from 60 million rubles to 20 million in 2026 and to 10 million by 2028, said Karina Ponomareva, Doctor of Law at the Presidential Academy.
Increased control will lead to higher costs for the platforms themselves: they will need to more actively monitor the activities of sellers, which will require additional investments in IT infrastructure, which may eventually be partially shifted to consumers through price increases, said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global.
One of the goals of regulation is to equalize prices online and offline, emphasized Vyacheslav Cheglov, Professor of the Department of Trade Policy at the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. According to him, this process is already underway. The expert recalled that in March, the Central Bank proposed to introduce equal conditions for payment on marketplaces for all means of payment. Increased control, connection to the Honest Sign system, and transparency before the Federal Tax Service will further narrow the price gap.
At the same time, the market may shrink: some sellers will leave the sites — according to the expert, at least a third. This will lead to less competition and less price dispersion, while the marketplaces themselves will become more transparent and regulated.
Will Russians return to offline shopping
Marketplaces will try to smooth out the effect of stricter controls through new payment mechanisms, according to economist Andrey Barkhota. According to him, an option is possible in which the buyer will pay for the goods with VAT immediately, and additional fees — for example, customs — upon receipt. A similar model is already being used on foreign platforms.
At the same time, experts do not expect a sharp flow of customers into traditional retail. Interest in offline stores may grow, but it's too early to talk about the stagnation of marketplaces, said Natalia Milchakova from Freedom Finance Global. In her opinion, the price gap will narrow, but not completely disappear, and the growth of the largest sites after 2027 will slow down to 25-35% per year.
A partial return of customers to regular stores is possible, agrees Svetlana Karpova from the University of Finance. She explained that if the price difference is reduced to 100-200 rubles, some customers will prefer an offline store where the product can be immediately tried on and picked up.
However, the main advantage of marketplaces, according to the expert, is not limited to the price. The audience is kept in line by convenient logistics, a high-security warehouse close to home, a wide selection and the ability to buy at any time. Therefore, she stressed, traditional retail will have to compete not only with cost, but also with the quality of customer experience.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
