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Gas is a brake: the EU forces Serbia to abandon a long—term contract with the Russian Federation
The European Union is blocking the conclusion of a long-term gas contract between Russia and Serbia, seeking to transfer Belgrade to EU-controlled supply channels. This was reported to Izvestia by the Russian Embassy in the republic. At the same time, there is no alternative to Russian fuel: market prices in Europe are many times higher, and stocks in the storage facilities of a number of EU countries are approaching critical levels. Brussels is also hindering the construction of a gas pipeline from Serbia to Republika Srpska. Experts believe that, despite the forced work of Moscow and Belgrade on short-term contracts, a complete break in ties between them will not happen.
How the EU is trying to deprive Serbia of gas from Russia
Against the background of Brussels' plans to completely abandon gas imports from Russia by 2027, Russia and Serbia have agreed to conclude a temporary contract for a period of six months. The document is expected to be signed by March 20, Dusan Bayatovic, director of the state-owned company Serbiyagaz, confirmed. However, Serbia insists on a planning horizon of 3-10 years with an annual volume of 2.5 billion cubic meters.
Brussels intends to prevent Russia from cooperating in the energy sector not only with EU member states, but also with candidates for membership. The European Union is now seeking to switch Serbia to controlled energy channels, the Russian Embassy in Belgrade told Izvestia.
— Serbia's close cooperation with Russia causes sharp rejection in the European Union, which forces Belgrade to abandon purchases of Russian gas in favor of joining the so-called European scheme. This is conveyed through the thesis of ensuring energy security, while keeping silent about the fact that there is no free gas in Europe, it itself is experiencing an acute shortage and is saving on literally everything," Russian diplomats said. Izvestia has sent requests to the European Commission and the relevant Serbian agencies.
Gas reserves in the EU's underground storage facilities have dropped below 25% in Germany, the Netherlands, France, Latvia, Croatia and Belgium, while in Denmark they have approached this level. At the same time, the cost of gas and electricity in Europe is three to four times higher than in the United States, which provokes an outflow of enterprises from the region.
The Russian Embassy in Belgrade pointed out a significant difference in prices: European gas for export costs significantly more than Russian fuel supplied to Serbia. The diplomatic mission believes that Brussels' actions are aimed at creating problems for the Serbian economy, one of the fastest growing in Europe. Stable supplies of Russian gas on favorable terms play a key role in this growth. According to Russian Ambassador to Belgrade Alexander Botan‑Kharchenko, thanks to these supplies Serbia saves at least 300 million euros annually, and in some periods the difference between market and contract prices reached two times the size.
Why can't Moscow and Belgrade sign a long-term contract
The share of Russian gas in Serbia's total consumption is more than 80%. It is now being delivered there via the overland extension of the Turkish Stream. The total capacity of the second line of the gas pipeline, through which supplies are carried out, is 15.75 billion cubic meters. m per year. In addition to this Balkan country, Hungary and Slovakia receive gas through it.
In addition to Russia, Azerbaijan supplies this region through the Southern Gas Corridor. The United States has become a new player here, covering about 50% of LNG imports to the region through terminals in Greece and Croatia. However, the potential of Azerbaijani gas supplies is limited, and American LNG is expensive, especially for the Balkan economies. For example, buying gas at European hubs or through separate terminals in Greece will cost Serbia $350-400 per 1,000 cubic meters. m and above due to complex logistics. For a fragile national economy, such a price spike can be fatal.
The main obstacle to concluding a long—term gas contract between Serbia and Russia is the future EU ban on Russian gas imports. Supplies to Serbia go through the territory of Bulgaria, which, after the new restrictive measures come into force, simply will not allow Russian gas to pass through, Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund and an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia.
— It makes no sense to sign 10-year or 15-year contracts now. It is unclear whether we will be able to fulfill this contract under the conditions of European prohibitions. Especially if Hungary and Slovakia fail to challenge this measure in the European Court of Justice," the expert noted.
Another reason is the US sanctions against NIS, the country's largest energy company, due to Gazprom Neft's majority stake. The option of selling a block of shares to the Hungarian concern MOL is currently being discussed, which will resolve this situation.
Will there be a new gas pipeline from Serbia to Republika Srpska
It is not only Serbia that needs Russian gas supplies. Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), represented by the Republika Srpska (RS, entity BiH), is also interested in their continuation. In 2023, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak noted that RS receives about 30-40 million cubic meters of gas per year. Russian gas is also used by the Muslim-Croatian Federation of BiH.
In the future, the volume of gas supplies to the Republic of Moldova may reach 1-1.5 billion cubic meters, Novak noted earlier. This requires the construction of a new gas pipeline from Serbia, but it has been blocked by Sarajevo for 15 years. The Muslim-Croatian entity is committed to joining the EU and NATO, as well as to developing energy cooperation with the United States and Europe.
Bosnia and Herzegovina, in general, is interested in building a gas pipeline to increase gas supplies, Zeljka Cvijanovic, a member of the BiH Presidium, told Izvestia. However, the project is still blocked at the level of state institutions.
"The project is currently suspended, but we hope that in the future Bosnia and Herzegovina will be able to receive gas from various sources," the politician noted.
The prospects for the implementation of this project are decreasing not only due to internal contradictions in BiH, but also due to new EU bans. According to Igor Yushkov, the Russian Federation will not invest in the creation of a route from Serbia to the Republic of Moldova until the situation with the presence of Russian gas on the European market is clarified.
Will Serbia maintain good relations with Russia
The EU's desire to end energy cooperation between Serbia and Russia is only part of Brussels' efforts to separate Belgrade from Moscow. For example, the European Commission requires him to join the EU's common foreign policy, that is, to impose sanctions against the Russian Federation, sever direct flights and curtail the visa-free regime for Russians. Europe is also concerned about the presence of Russian media in the Balkan republic.
Pressure on Belgrade is also exerted in the field of politics. Izvestia previously wrote that London and Berlin are trying to remove supporters of developing relations with the Russian Federation from his cabinet.
In mid-September 2025, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service published information that the EU was preparing a "color revolution" in Serbia, but such a scenario was failing due to the presence of strong patriotic sentiments in its society. The reason for the protest activity was the tragedy in Novi Sad in November 2024 (the collapse of the station canopy, which claimed the lives of 15 people). Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said that the special services of several countries are financing protests in the republic — $4 billion has already been spent on this.
At the same time, relations between Moscow and Belgrade cannot be called ideal. In particular, Serbia has terminated several arms supply contracts. A separate issue was the alleged transfer of Serbian weapons to Ukraine. Last year, Russia's SVR reported that Serbian defense enterprises, contrary to the neutrality declared by the authorities, were supplying ammunition to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Alexander Vucic then suspended their exports and discussed the issue with Vladimir Putin.
In 2026-2027, Serbia will host another electoral cycle: citizens will choose a parliament and a head of state. Vucic has no right to run for another term, and he has so far refused to amend the constitution. However, the current leader of Serbia may change the presidential chair to the prime minister's. In this case, Milos Vucevic, the leader of the ruling Serbian Progressive Party, may become the head of state, RIAC program manager Milan Lazovic told Izvestia.
According to the expert, one should not expect global changes in Belgrade's policy after the elections, much less drastic steps towards Russia. Serbia will continue its course towards the EU, and the republic is ready to join this association even without the right to use a veto in decision-making. However, Belgrade will not go for the final severance of ties with Moscow. For Russia, maintaining energy and political ties with Serbia means not only stable export revenues in the face of sanctions, but also maintaining a valuable partner in the center of Europe.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
