Iron onslaught: Western countries increase pressure on Serbia

The United Kingdom, Germany and some political circles in Washington are putting pressure on Serbia, the republic's ambassador to Moscow, Momcilo Babic, told Izvestia. Belgrade has established good relations with the Trump administration, but the problem of sanctions against the NIS oil company, imposed under Democrat Biden, remains. The main goal of London and Berlin is to sever Belgrade's ties with Moscow and join the sanctions, analysts say. The internal situation in Serbia remains tense: the authorities are taking their supporters to the streets, and the opposition is preparing for the anniversary of the tragedy in Novi Sad, which provoked the protests. About who is trying to shake up the situation in Serbia and how, see the Izvestia article.

Which countries are trying to interfere in Serbia's internal affairs

The United Kingdom, Germany, as well as some political circles in the United States are increasing pressure on Serbia, Serbian Ambassador to Russia Momcilo Babic told Izvestia.

— The pressure from the West is increasing daily. Britain, Germany and certain circles in the United States are under the most pressure. The Trump administration is good, but the USA is a big country, there are different circles there. These are countries that are interested in putting pressure on the Serbs," Babic told Izvestia.

Earlier, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said that the special services of several countries are financing protests in the republic, $4 billion has already been spent on this. The Serbian head of state stressed that he was forced to remain silent in order not to violate neutrality, but the situation was under control.

"These countries know that we are aware of what they are doing," Vucic clarified.

In mid-September, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service published information that the EU was preparing a "color revolution" in Serbia. But such a scenario fails due to the strong patriotic sentiments in Serbian society.

"The goal of the European liberal mainstream is to bring an obedient and loyal leadership to power in this largest Balkan country. It must be admitted that Euro—Elites are succeeding in a lot: young people are radicalized, moving from peaceful protest to "revolutionary" methods of struggle and violence," the SVR noted. The Serbian authorities said they would contact the Russian special services about this.

In addition to supporting the protests, Western countries are trying to influence the situation within the Serbian government. So, Izvestia previously wrote that London and Berlin are trying to put pressure on Serbia to remove supporters of developing relations with the Russian Federation from its cabinet. The ultimate goal of the UK and the EU is to force Belgrade to join the sanctions against Moscow, stop direct flights to Russia and abandon its gas. It is noteworthy that a new contract is expected to be signed in October.

Non-union position: The EU may slow down Serbia's European integration

This will be a response to the suppression of mass protests, Brussels noted.

Germany and the United Kingdom are among the most actively involved European countries in the Balkan region. Germany is home to an impressive diaspora of immigrants from the Balkans, from the republics of the former Yugoslavia. Germany, as one of the key EU countries, is interested in promoting integration ideas in the region, INF Program Manager Milan Lazovich told Izvestia.

— Great Britain is interested in influencing the European continent, especially in the region of rivalry — the Balkans. In particular, in those countries where sympathies towards Russia and China are strong. Serbia also belongs to such states," the expert noted.

However, Belgrade will not change its policy, Alexander Vucic said on September 2 at a meeting in Beijing with Vladimir Putin. Serbia will not join the sanctions against Russia and will maintain military neutrality, he said.

On September 29, Vucic received the Russian Ambassador to Belgrade, Alexander Botan-Kharchenko, and one of the topics of their conversation was the situation around the Serbian oil company NIS. In early January 2025, the US Treasury Department imposed sanctions against NIS, in which Gazprom Neft and Gazprom own a controlling stake. Since then, NIS has received a suspension of restrictions from the United States six times, but in mid-September, Vucic expressed concern that Washington would not agree to a new extension after September 26. It later became known that the United States had postponed the imposition of sanctions until October 8-9.

It is important that these sanctions were imposed during the Democratic administration of Joe Biden. The bombing of Yugoslavia also took place during the administration of Democratic President Bill Clinton. The Serbian authorities have better relations with the Republicans: Belgrade openly supported Donald Trump in the 2020 elections. And in March, the son of the US president, Donald Trump Jr., discussed strategic cooperation with Aleksandar Vucic in Belgrade.

To put things in order: will the Serbian authorities be able to cope with the protests

Belgrade has no plans to hold early elections yet.

According to Milan Lazovich, the Democrats are more negative than the Republicans. The former are ideologized, the latter are pragmatic. Therefore, Washington wants to show some flexibility by giving additional time to the parties involved to find possible compromise solutions and maintain stability in the regional energy market.

— Therefore, it is possible that the situation is being rocked by the Democrats, and not by the Republicans. Or from Republicans who are not necessarily associated with Trump or his administration. Even in the case of Russia, we see that the approach of individual Republican congressmen differs from the statements of the American leader and other top US officials," the expert believes.

By the way, earlier a notice appeared on the Belgrade Stock Exchange stating that Intelligences JSC from St. Petersburg, a subsidiary of Gazprom, had acquired an 11.3% stake in NIS, and the Russian gas holding itself retained one NIS share. Thus, the main reason for the restrictions against it — the controlling stake in the hands of sanctioned companies from the Russian Federation — may disappear.

Will the protests in Serbia stop

However, the key factor for the development of the situation in Serbia is still internal processes. The Citizens Against Blockades movement has been launched against the backdrop of ongoing protests by students and the opposition since November. At least 157,000 people took part in coordinated actions of the movement at 167 sites in different cities. This was announced by Assistant Director of Police Vladan Radosavljevic.

This is not the first action: on September 13, over 144 thousand Serbian citizens took part in demonstrations with slogans of support for the authorities. Vucic and his Serbian Progressive Party have a nuclear electorate, which makes up at least 20-25% of the total number of voters in Serbia. Therefore, it is certainly impossible to say that his level of support tends to zero, no matter how much one would like to present it to the protesters, Ekaterina Entina, director of the HSE Center for Mediterranean Studies, told Izvestia.

— At the same time, it must be understood that the mass of these rallies in support of the government, firstly, is not very high, and secondly, to a certain extent it is provided by administrative resources, - says the expert.

Against this background, the opposition's actions are not developing yet. The situation escalated in August, when there were clashes with law enforcement agencies, as well as arson attacks on the offices of the ruling Serbian Progressive Party. A new wave is possible on November 1, the anniversary of the tragedy in Novi Sad, when 16 people died as a result of the collapse of a canopy at the railway station.

Entina believes that the further development of this wave depends on how much political leadership can form in the core of the protesters. The mass nature of these demonstrations is due to the fact that the Serbian population was waiting for new faces to come to the forefront of domestic politics. So far, this has not happened.

— The parliamentary opposition has no new faces, Vucic himself has a very small bench of reserve personnel. The mass and intensity of these protests will directly depend on how much it will be possible to form a pool of student leaders and bring them to the stage," the political scientist said.

Parliamentary elections may be a chance to resolve the political situation. Earlier, Alexander Vucic said that they would be held ahead of schedule, but did not name the date. According to a September Ipsos opinion poll, 48% of respondents are ready to support the coalition led by the Serbian Progressive Party. In June, local elections were held in two cities — Kocierich in the west and Zaechar in the east of the country, which were won by the pro—presidential party, despite the growth of the opposition figures. Therefore, the potential for street fighting to return to normal remains.