Delhi — time: India has not decided to abandon Russian oil
Indian companies have not decided to stop purchasing Russian oil, despite statements by officials from the administration of US President Donald Trump, Izvestia has learned. Since February 7, the American leader has abolished duties of 25% on imports of Indian goods. At the same time, industry experts believe that supplies may decrease to 1 million barrels per day. What will happen to Russian oil exports to the republic and what prices should be expected for domestic raw materials — in the Izvestia article.
About Russian oil supplies to India
Indian companies have not taken decisions on the complete cessation of purchases of Russian oil, as well as on the reduction of imports. This was reported to Izvestia by a source in one of the republic's oil refining companies.
At the same time, on February 7, US President Donald Trump abolished duties of 25% on imports of Indian goods. In addition, according to the head of the White House, the republic has committed to purchase $500 billion worth of energy resources, aircraft and aviation components, precious metals, technological products and coking coal from the United States within five years.
Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar at the Munich Conference
Later, Delhi's position on the issue of Russian oil imports was voiced by Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar during a speech at the Munich Conference.
— I can say that India will continue to make its own decisions, and they will not always be to your taste. We understand that. You'll have to put up with it," he stressed.
On February 14, at the same Munich conference, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio recalled that the republic's leadership had pledged not to buy Russian oil.
— We don't have to agree on everything. Yes, sometimes our choices may not match the expectations of others, and that's okay. As for energy issues, it is a difficult market today. Oil companies assess availability, cost, and risks and make decisions that they believe are in their best interests. We have a position on this issue," the Indian Foreign Minister said.
Izvestia sent a request to the largest oil refining companies in the republic.
How much oil did India buy from Russia
Currently, Russia's total offshore oil exports amount to about 3 million barrels per day. Ekaterina Kosareva, Managing partner of VMT Consult, provided such data in a conversation with Izvestia. At the same time, according to her, until recently, India and China practically "divided" all export volumes of domestic oil in half.
— Speculation about India's abandonment of Russian oil has been going on for months. We have already heard such statements from the American side and Western media in the summer and autumn of 2025, but nevertheless supplies continue. Yes, they have decreased at the moment, including due to the influence of American politics, as well as for economic reasons. The cost of tanker freight is increasing due to the introduction of new Western sanctions," the source said.
In general, experts note that as of early February 2026, the situation with India's oil purchases from the Russian Federation remains uncertain — despite some high-profile statements, there has been no complete rejection, but there has been a decrease in supply volumes, especially since January. However, issues of energy security and the availability of alternative suppliers remain unresolved.
"The positions of the parties stated in the public space do not indicate that a complete embargo was meant," Valery Andrianov, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, explained to Izvestia. — So, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that India had agreed "not to increase" purchases. And Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar stressed that specific decisions would be made "based on national interests." And there is no doubt that the purchase of Russian raw materials at a serious discount is in the interests of India.
Therefore, according to the expert, it is worth waiting for a gradual reduction rather than a sharp interruption of supplies. This process is already underway — the republic has reduced imports of raw materials from the Russian Federation from 1.7–1.8 million barrels per day in early 2025 to about 1.1 million barrels per day in January 2026. He believes that under a pessimistic scenario, supplies should be expected to drop to just below 1 million barrels per day.
Alexander Frolov, Deputy Director General of the National Energy Institute, recalled the statement of some Western news agencies that India was going to reduce purchases of Russian oil to 500-600 thousand barrels per day.
— This contradicts Washington's claims about a complete refusal. I would suggest that direct purchases may actually decrease. But imports, taking into account second— and third-hand resales, will remain approximately at the current level," he said.
Where will Russia be able to redirect oil export flows?
In general, experts agree that India is unlikely to completely stop buying our oil, and with their reduction, Russia will find a buyer for these volumes.
Dmitry Kasatkin, Managing Partner of Kasatkin Consulting, believes that Delhi is acting pragmatically: on the one hand, energy security and price benefits, on the other, trade agreements with the United States and sanctions risks.
"The main question is how much supplies will actually decrease, not on paper," the source stressed.
At the same time, in his opinion, if India really reduces imports, then these volumes will be redirected to Asia, primarily to China. However, this means higher freight and insurance costs, which in turn may affect the price. In general, in his opinion, alternative markets exist, but they are either smaller in volume or require an additional discount.
— The key factor for the price of Russian oil is the size of the discount. With a change in Indian demand, the discount to Brent is likely to expand, as the seller will have to look for new buyers or complicate supply chains. We do not see any prospects for a significant effect on global prices due to insignificant changes in trade flows. Thus, the question is not "whether the Russian Federation will find a buyer," there is no doubt about that, but at what price this oil will be bought, Dmitry Kasatkin noted.
Valery Andrianov also believes that it will be possible to "add" additional volumes at a discount not only to China, but also to African countries (Ghana, Senegal, Libya, Egypt and Tunisia), South America, as well as other Asian countries.
— The discount rate plays an important role in the search for new niches. According to estimates, its size has already reached $ 27 per barrel, and it seems that this is the limit, a further increase in the gap in the price of Brent and Urals is hardly possible based on the cost of production and logistics. But its noticeable reduction will become possible only after there is clarity about further sanctions pressure on Russia," the source said.
Dmitry Scriabin, Managing Director of Alfa Capital Management Company, believes that it will be possible to judge how much the volume of supplies to India may decrease only after a few months.
— According to the latest information in the media, China has taken almost all of the lost "Indian" volume of Russian oil. As for the price of our oil, it is more likely to look at the prerequisites for reducing the discount," he told Izvestia.
But this, according to the expert, should not be expected in the coming months, given the ongoing sanctions pressure.
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