Planned work: how Russia and Ukraine approach the second round of negotiations
Moscow and Kiev are going to the second round of negotiations in Abu Dhabi on February 4-5. On the eve of new contacts, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte arrived in the Ukrainian capital, saying that the world will require difficult decisions. At the same time, reports appeared in the media about the approval of a Western plan to support the future agreement. The meeting will take place against the background of the completed energy truce, during which Kiev behaved with restraint, Russian Foreign Ministry Ambassador Rodion Miroshnik told Izvestia. However, the expectations from the round in the Emirates should be modest, experts say. The parties are focused on technical and military issues, while fundamental topics will require discussion at a higher level. What events affect the background of the upcoming meeting can be found in the exclusive Izvestia article.
What to expect from a new meeting in Abu Dhabi
Russia and Ukraine have confirmed their participation in a new round of peace talks to be held in Abu Dhabi from February 4-5. The composition of the groups remains the same. The Kremlin announced that the Russian security delegation will once again be headed by Igor Kostyukov, Chief of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces. Ukraine will be represented by a group led by NSDC Secretary Rustem Umerov.
At the same time, the American side, contrary to earlier statements by Secretary of State Marco Rubio about Washington's "minimal presence," will nevertheless be represented by special envoy to the US President Steve Witkoff and Donald Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner. The White House announced that they will take part in negotiations with Russia on February 4.
The previous round was held on January 23-24. Although those contacts ended without any apparent compromise on the territorial issue, Russian sources described them as inconclusive. Curiously, after the meeting, information appeared about the exchange of bodies of military personnel between the Russian Federation and Ukraine. This was announced on January 29 by Vladimir Medinsky, Assistant to the President of Russia. Thus, Moscow handed over 1,000 bodies to Kiev, and 38 bodies to Moscow. On the same day, Vladimir Putin publicly thanked the leadership of the United Arab Emirates, noting the country's significant contribution to the organization of prisoner exchanges between Russia and Ukraine.
An important stage was also the meeting of Witkoff with the special representative of the President of the Russian Federation Kirill Dmitriev, which took place on January 31 in Florida. The parties called the conversation productive, which probably meant agreeing positions in front of Abu Dhabi, despite the continuing differences on the territorial issue.
Another event that followed the first round was the energy truce. For the first time, Donald Trump announced it, noting that he had "personally" agreed on this with Vladimir Putin. Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that the American leader had asked his Russian counterpart to refrain from strikes on Kiev until February 1 "in order to create favorable conditions for negotiations." Russia agreed to this, Peskov noted.
— Last week (from January 26 to February 1. — Izvestia) The Ukrainian side behaved relatively restrained, again against the background of the implementation of the energy truce. And the number of people who suffered from disconnection along the line of contact from the Russian side was about 15-20 thousand," Rodion Miroshnik, the Russian Foreign Ministry's ambassador for crimes of the Kiev regime, told Izvestia.
At the same time, for comparison: in January, the total number of people who suffered from periodic power outages due to Ukraine's strikes on energy facilities amounted to more than 2 million, the diplomat added. Residents of the DPR, Zaporizhia, Kherson and Belgorod regions suffered the most, Miroshnik said.
Andrei Kortunov, an expert at the Valdai Club, believes that fundamental breakthroughs should hardly be expected as a result of the negotiations. The Ukrainian leadership reacted painfully to the resumption of attacks on the energy infrastructure, as it counted on the indefinite duration of the Russian moratorium. In addition, the composition of the Russian delegation has not changed, which means that the agenda will not include complex political aspects of the settlement, but military and technical issues, as well as the results of the first round.
— In particular, the parameters of buffer zones, monitoring and monitoring of ceasefire agreements, as well as the risks of escalation may be discussed. At the same time, the fundamental topics — territorial issues and the future status of Ukraine in the European security system — should be discussed in a different composition, most likely at a higher level, " he told Izvestia.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's visit to Kyiv
On the eve of the meeting, on February 3, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte arrived in Kiev. Speaking in the Verkhovna Rada, he announced the appearance of foreign contingents of NATO countries on Ukrainian territory immediately after the conclusion of the agreement.
"Rutte is known as an intermediary between Trump and his opponents in the camp of globalists," Oleg Karpovich, head of the Department of the MGIMO Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry, told Izvestia. — His statement on the deployment of NATO troops to Ukraine confirms that the Secretary General of the alliance is acting as a provocateur trying to disrupt the efforts of diplomats. The ability of the parties to reach an agreement on the results of the next round of negotiations largely depends on Washington's willingness not to succumb to such provocations and remain committed to the Anchorage formula.
In parallel with the preparations for the negotiations, the Financial Times published an article in which it claims that Kiev, Washington and European capitals have already agreed on a multi-level plan to support a future peace agreement. This document should become a kind of "insurance" in case of failure of the agreements. Thus, in the case of "systematic violations" of peace conditions by Moscow, the Western allies promise a "coordinated military response."
According to sources, the mechanism is planned to be launched in stages: during the first day, a diplomatic demarche and local counterattacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will follow, however, if the fighting continues, a "coalition of willing" should intervene in the conflict. If the escalation escalates into a full-scale offensive, then 72 hours after the first incident, a massive Western military response involving the US armed forces will follow. Russia has repeatedly stated that the deployment of Western forces and military facilities in Ukraine would be regarded as a foreign intervention that poses a direct threat to the security of the Russian Federation.
At the same time, speaking in the Ukrainian parliament, the NATO Secretary General noted that reaching a peace agreement between Moscow and Kiev would require difficult decisions. The West and specifically the Trump administration are trying to find some kind of compensation for Ukraine for Kiev's possible greater flexibility on controversial issues, Andrei Kortunov believes.
— That is, if you "won't be capricious" and still make concessions on territories, then in return we can promise you such security guarantees that you can present at home as a major victory and thereby strengthen your position so that you are not considered traitors, capitulators,"agents of Moscow" and so on. It seems to me that this is an attempt to offer some kind of bonus to Zelensky with the understanding that in exchange Kiev can show more flexibility," he said.
Meanwhile, Europe is increasingly hinting at a desire to establish a dialogue with the Russian Federation. French President Emmanuel Macron, who has repeatedly expressed his intention to resume dialogue with Vladimir Putin, said that preparations for his contacts with the Russian leader are already underway at a technical level. Apparently, this format can become the very channel for negotiations between Brussels and Moscow, which French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barraud mentioned on February 1.
It is extremely important for the EU that the negotiations between Moscow and Kiev have a concrete result, MEP Tomasz Zdechowski told Izvestia.
— If a real, verifiable and sustainable agreement is reached that stops aggression and respects Ukraine's sovereignty, the EU will assess the situation accordingly. But any steps will require reliable and controlled actions, not declarations," Zdechowski said.
It is worth recalling that Moscow, in turn, does not consider its actions on the territory of Ukraine to be "aggression" — its official goal remains to protect the population of Donbass. At the same time, according to the MEP, another integral part of the future peace agreement must inevitably be the issue of unblocking and further fate of Russian assets frozen in the West.
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