The latest crackdown: mortgage demand increased abnormally in January
Russians rushed to get mortgages — banks informed Izvestia about the abnormal demand for the beginning of the year. Many tried to "jump into the last carriage" and take out a family mortgage before its terms changed in February. The market was already heated up by record disbursements in December, and an additional impetus was given by the excitement around the closure of the popular scheme, when a preferential loan was issued for each of the spouses. How this may affect prices is described in the Izvestia article.
Why Russians actively take out mortgages at the beginning of the year
Banks recorded an atypical acceleration in demand for mortgages in January, Izvestia found out. The largest market players note a multiple increase in applications and disbursements under the program for families with children compared to the beginning of last year — Russians are seeking to apply for a housing loan before its conditions change and the rules may be tightened.
Sberbank noted an increase in family mortgage payments to 113 billion rubles in less than a month, which is 2.6 times more than in the whole of January last year, the bank's press service reported. At the same time, according to Frank RG, it accounted for almost 76% of all housing loans issued last month.
In the Dom bank.Russian Federation" mortgage issuance in less than a month increased 3.3 times compared to the same period last year, said Alexey Kosyakov, deputy chairman of the board of the organization. In VTB, Sovcombank and Absolut Bank, Russians have issued one and a half times more housing loans than in January 2025, representatives of the organizations said. Izvestia has sent inquiries to other market players.
Gazprombank and Rosselkhoznadzor are also registering increased interest in family mortgages, their press services told Izvestia.
— Demand in January remains approximately at the level of November–December, although it usually falls at the beginning of the year, — said Vitaly Kostyukevich, Director of Absolut Bank's Retail Products department.
Russians tried to take out a family mortgage until its terms changed. The new approach, which has been in effect since February 1, establishes the principle of "one preferential loan for one family," whereas previously it was possible to apply for a loan for each of the spouses. The authorities sought to stop this scheme, but eventually dispersed the demand for the program.
At the same time, the market began to warm up in the previous months. So, in December 2025, mortgage issuance exceeded 800 billion rubles - this is a historical record, according to Frank RG data. The family program was the driver of demand, with growth reaching 70% in just one month.
Market participants confirmed to Izvestia that the increased activity of borrowers is associated with changes in the conditions of the family mortgage. Prior to that, each spouse actually had their own right to benefits, so part of the demand was based on the opportunity to take out two loans in one family and buy either two apartments or a larger apartment, said Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global. When the market received a signal that this option was closing, demand simply dragged on into December and January.
Against the background of extremely expensive market mortgages, with rates that can reach up to 20%, the program for families with children remains the only affordable way for many to buy a home, so any change in the rules immediately triggers a wave of applications, said Maxim Lazovsky, owner of the Lazovsky House construction company.
How will the acceleration of demand affect the market
The risks of overheating in the real estate market as a whole remain, said Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global. The Bank of Russia has been emphasizing for many years that preferential programs with limited supply can accelerate prices and create imbalances.
"During the period of the non—targeted preferential mortgage, the cost of new buildings in Moscow and other major cities jumped by about half, but with its cancellation, prices did not roll back, but continued to grow actively," explained the head of the Real Estate Market Indicators analytical center. Irn.ru " Oleg Repchenko.
According to Dom.rf, new buildings in 2025 rose in price by 10.2%, and the average cost per square meter according to Rosstat reached 208 thousand rubles, while the December-January rush added short-term pressure on prices, said Valery Tumin, director of markets in Russia and the CIS at fam Properties. Analysts expect new buildings to rise in price by about 6% in 2026, and within 2-3% by the end of the first quarter, as the market will begin to seek a new balance after the February recession.
In January, the inertia of high demand was still working before February 1, so developers could raise prices faster in individual projects and regions, especially where the share of mortgage transactions is high, said Vladimir Chernov. But starting in February, activity should decrease, as family mortgages will become more targeted, some of the "investor" demand will disappear, and market loans at a high key rate will remain inaccessible to the mass buyer.
It was difficult to prevent overheating — the state cannot drastically change the conditions for state programs without a transition period, since many families were already at the stage of choosing an object and completing transactions, so the effect of the "last window" is almost inevitable, concluded Vladimir Chernov.
How preferential mortgages affect the budget
From the point of view of the budget, the family mortgage remains one of the most expensive support measures, Maxim Lazovsky emphasized. The burden on the treasury is high due to the large gap between preferential and market rates, explained Vladimir Chernov. The mechanism is designed so that at the key 16%, the government compensates banks for lost income based on the 19.5% rate, minus the 6% that borrowers pay.
That is, while the Central Bank's rate remains high, the budget takes on the bulk of the mortgage interest burden. At the same time, the average term of housing loans, according to the United Credit Bureau (OKB), is about 27 years, which means that taxpayers' funds will be used to service new loans for a quarter of a century.
In the draft three-year budget for 2026-2028, the Ministry of Finance allocated about 1.8 trillion rubles to support family mortgages, and that is why the issue of targeting is so important for the authorities, Vladimir Chernov noted. In addition, Russia continues to discuss the introduction of differentiated family mortgage rates — 10-12% for couples with one child, 6% for two and 4% for three.
If such an innovation is adopted, about 2.7 million families with one child will no longer be able to get a loan at 6% per annum, and they will have to buy an apartment at a significantly higher interest rate — the monthly payment on such loans will increase by one and a half times.
If the changes take effect during the year, short-term spikes in demand may recur, Maxim Lazovsky emphasized.
Borrowers should have the option to reduce the family mortgage rate at the birth of their second and third children, Anatoly Aksakov, head of the State Duma Committee on the Financial Market, previously told Izvestia. With such parameters, the state program will stimulate the birth rate, rather than force Russians to postpone the purchase of housing until new family members are born.
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