- Статьи
- World
- Commonwealth conversation: Moldova's opposition initiates a referendum on secession from the CIS
Commonwealth conversation: Moldova's opposition initiates a referendum on secession from the CIS
The Moldovan opposition wants to initiate a referendum to prevent the republic's withdrawal from the CIS. To do this, she needs to collect 100,000 signatures. According to polls, a significant part of the population is against severing ties with the commonwealth, and the authorities are trying to impose a European path to strengthen the division of society. However, there is a risk that the ruling circles will not allow a referendum. They have many levers to disrupt the initiative: in particular, they may not recognize the signatures or refuse to register the initiative group with the CEC. Experts believe that leaving the CIS will harm agriculture, and goods from the EU will displace Moldovan products on the domestic market.
Who in Moldova supports participation in the CIS
The statement of the Moldovan authorities on withdrawal from the CIS caused discontent on the part of the opposition. Against this background, the Future of Moldova party is going to start collecting signatures, which will allow them to demand that the authorities hold a consultative referendum. The residents of the country will already answer the question of whether Chisinau should leave the commonwealth. According to the law, the faction needs to collect 100,000 signatures.
"Party Chairman Vasily Tarlev uses at least the parliamentary rostrum for a tough and principled position, will make official appeals and initiate the collection of signatures of citizens," the faction told Izvestia.
Leader of the opposition party "The Future of Moldova" Vasily Tarlev at the first session of the Parliament of the Republic of Moldova of the XII convocation in Chisinau
In 2025, the Future of Moldova joined the Patriotic Bloc to participate in the elections — it has 26 mandates in the 101-seat parliament.
There is a strong polarization of society in Moldova, and the question of the republic's participation in the CIS only confirms this. Previous polls have shown that 30-50% of the population are against secession from the Commonwealth of Independent States. Meanwhile, Moldova has little experience with holding referendums: in 2024, a constitutional referendum was held, as a result, the authorities fixed EU membership as one of the main goals of foreign policy. At the same time, 50.35% were in favor of joining, 49.65% opposed. Withdrawal from the CIS will only strengthen the split, said Vasily Tarlev, a member of parliament and former prime Minister.
However, some of the opposition believes that the ruling party will not allow a referendum on participation in the CIS.
"These signatures are simply not recognized by the CEC, or the initiative group will not be registered, or the information and security service will discover some external financing from anyone," Bogdan Tsyrdya, a deputy from the Party of Socialists (part of the Patriotic Bloc), told Izvestia.
According to him, even if the referendum succeeds and the majority votes against leaving the CIS, the Constitutional Court will not recognize the result. The reason is that the judges are controlled by the Action and Solidarity party and, above all, by President Maia Sandu, Tsyrdea believes. Moreover, Moldova is a candidate country for EU membership, and its foreign policy, according to him, is fully coordinated by the European Commission. In addition, an advisory referendum is, in fact, an opinion poll that the authorities are not obliged to listen to.
Problems with leaving the Commonwealth
Moldova plans to denounce three fundamental documents in the near future: the CIS charter, the agreement on the establishment of the commonwealth and its annex.
"The necessary documents have been sent to national institutions for approval," the Moldovan Foreign Ministry told Izvestia. — After the completion of government approval procedures, which are scheduled to be completed by mid-February 2026, the documents will be submitted to Parliament for approval at the beginning of the new session, where the final decision will be made by deputies.
The parliamentary vote will take place in late February or early March. Then the denunciation is approved by the President of Moldova, after which the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic will send an official withdrawal note. The whole procedure will be completed after a year.
The Parliament of the Republic of Moldova in Chisinau
Nevertheless, Moldova does not want to withdraw from all agreements, since a number of agreements are beneficial to the republic. But the country has not yet announced specific agreements that it will not break. Another thing is that the country may not be allowed to remain in a number of treaties. For example, in the customs agreements, which means that no benefits will be provided to Chisinau, which will greatly affect exports.
"It is necessary to look for new markets, but not to replace existing ones,— Vasily Tarlev told Izvestia. — I know how many countries dream of entering those markets that Moldova is turning away from today, it is irrational.
Tarlev stressed that it is necessary to trade where there is a demand for Moldovan products, where they are known and bought. If Moldova withdraws from the CIS, it will be a grave mistake, the former prime minister stressed.
"The CIS is not only Russia, it is also Belarus, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and other countries with which Moldova carries out duty—free trade through free trade agreements," Tarlev added. — Abandoning these markets means deliberately weakening our own economy.
The share of trade with the CIS countries is very significant in Moldova's overall balance sheet. According to the National Bureau of Statistics of the Republic, exports of goods to the Commonwealth countries in 2024 amounted to $241.6 million. First of all, agricultural producers will suffer, Natalia Kharitonova, professor at the RANEPA under the President of the Russian Federation, chief researcher at the Russian State University of Agriculture, told Izvestia.
According to various estimates, in the first quarter of 2024, more than 70% of Moldovan apples were exported to Russia and the CIS countries. The Russian Federation accounted for about 60% of this volume (27 thousand tons). Moldova's withdrawal from the commonwealth will hardly be felt by its member countries, as it does not produce anything original, Kharitonova added. The quota system in the EU is very strict, Europe has no need for Moldovan products. The EU already produces all the exports that Moldova has, the expert stressed.
There are also problems with the import. The goods of the EU countries are displacing Moldovan ones. For example, in 2025, former president and leader of the Party of Socialists Igor Dodon said that Moldovans' apples end up in landfills, and supermarkets are full of imported fruits. According to local residents, Polish apples are mainly sold in Chisinau shops, Moldovan apples can only be bought at city markets.
In addition, Moldova buys metals, wood and fertilizers from the CIS countries at an affordable price. In 2023, Russia's share in the import of mineral fertilizers to the republic was almost 43% of the total volume (238.4 thousand tons). As of 2021, the share of the CIS in the import of metals to Moldova was 48.2% ($143 million), and wood — 65.4% ($167 million).
But there is another point of view, according to which leaving the CIS will not be a shock for the country, because it has been living in the logic of economic reorientation for several years. Therefore, withdrawal from the commonwealth is rather symbolic and captures the prevailing reality, Yaroslav Kabakov, Director of Strategy at Finam IC, told Izvestia. According to him, the main constraint for Moldovan exports is not demand, but the need to meet EU quality standards, which requires time and investment.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
