The Central Bank called a complete abandonment of cash in Russia unlikely by 2030.

A complete abandonment of cash in Russia by 2030 is unlikely, in particular due to regular network outages. Information about this follows from the report of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation "The main directions of development of cash circulation for 2026-2030."

"During periods of increased uncertainty or disruptions, interest in cash may increase in the short term, which has already been observed in previous stressful periods. <...> That is why the Bank of Russia considers cash circulation not only as a payment instrument, but also as an element of financial stability and national security," Nikita Kulagin, head of the Macroeconomic Analysis Department at Sovcombank, told Vedomosti newspaper.

According to the Central Bank's document, the regulator expects that the share of cash in retail payments will remain at about 10% by 2030. In the baseline scenario, the volume of cash in circulation is projected to grow by 22% to 24 trillion rubles, in the pessimistic scenario — by 35% to 26.6 trillion rubles. At the same time, over the past five years, the volume of cash in Russia has grown by 46.4% and reached 19.7 trillion rubles by the beginning of 2026, although their share in retail transactions decreased from 25.7% to 12.2% over the same period.

Vedomosti also notes that cash remains a critical payment instrument in the event of technical failures, disasters or power outages. In addition, they are actively used by residents of remote regions and part of the elderly population. Research by the Bank of Russia shows that more than half of bank cardholders keep a cash reserve with them in case non-cash payment is impossible.

To maintain the availability of cash, the Central Bank plans to modernize the collection market, allow more participants to use money transportation services and identify models for optimizing infrastructure costs, Vedomosti notes.

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In early January, it was reported that the Russian Ministry of Finance proposed to ban state registration of transactions between individuals and legal entities with cash if the amount exceeds 5 million rubles or 50 million rubles in total per month. The initiative has been prepared in accordance with the plan for the "whitewashing" of economic sectors approved by the Russian government. Currently, transactions for cash are not regulated in any way, which is why money obtained by criminal means can be put into circulation.

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