Forward to the past: the return of the former prime minister may cost Iraq US support
The struggle for power in Iraq has escalated again: the nomination of former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki split the parliament and provoked a harsh reaction from the United States. While the Shiites share ministerial portfolios, the Sunnis threaten to boycott, and Donald Trump threatens to cut off financial aid to Baghdad. Izvestia experts warn that the return of the politician at the time of the withdrawal of the coalition forces is fraught with problems for the economy and a new round of civil confrontation.
The White House intends to pacify the pro-Iranian forces in Baghdad
On January 24, the Coordinating Council, which unites the majority of Shiite parties in Iraq, officially announced the nomination of al-Maliki as a candidate for the post of prime minister. After that, MP Miqdad al-Khafaji told Shafaq News agency, consultations on the future of the cabinet and the allocation of key ministries started within the coalition.
However, the former prime minister's candidacy immediately became the subject of sharp criticism from political opponents. The Progress Party, the largest Sunni force in the Council of Representatives, said it would refuse to participate in the government if it was headed by a politician associated with sectarian conflicts. The statement was perceived as a direct reference to al-Maliki, whose previous tenure in power, according to Sunni parties, contributed to the deepening of internal contradictions.
The United States exerted additional pressure on the domestic political process. President Donald Trump has publicly stated that Washington will end its support for Iraq if al-Maliki is elected prime minister.
"I am hearing rumors that the great country of Iraq may make a very bad choice by reappointing Nouri al-Maliki as Prime minister. The last time Maliki was in power, the country plunged into poverty and complete chaos. This cannot be allowed to happen again. Because of his insane politics and ideology, if he is elected, the United States of America will no longer help Iraq," Trump wrote on his page on the Truth Social network.
US President Donald Trump
Al-Maliki rejected the accusations and regarded the US position as interference in Iraq's internal affairs. He stated that he did not intend to refuse to participate in the political process, stressing his commitment to the sovereignty of the country and the inadmissibility of "threatening language" in relations with Washington. According to him, cooperation between the two states should be based solely on the political plane and on the basis of mutual respect.
The risk of a repeat of the crisis
Against the background of Trump's statements, al-Maliki's possible third term may be seen as strengthening Iran's position in Iraq. A number of observers draw attention to the politician's close ties with Tehran, as well as his role in the formation of Shiite armed structures. The return of al-Maliki could give additional impetus to pro-Iranian forces and increase the risk of confrontation between Baghdad and Washington, jeopardizing the stability of the political system as a whole.
Al-Maliki's path to the post of prime minister remains uncertain. According to the constitution, Parliament must first elect a president, who instructs the largest coalition to nominate a candidate. Usually, this post is held by a representative of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, but now the process is complicated by rivalry with the Democratic Party of Kurdistan.
Former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki
The parliamentary session on the election of the president, scheduled for January 27, broke down due to a lack of quorum, a new date has not been set, and the 30-day constitutional deadline is expiring. Even if al-Maliki is appointed, he will have to receive a vote of confidence for the cabinet. In 2020, problems with the appointment of the prime minister have already led to a protracted political crisis.
According to orientalist Kirill Semenov, the figure of al-Maliki remains extremely controversial for a significant part of Iraqi society, including the Shiite environment. According to him, the former prime minister is associated with the radical wing of the Islamist Dawa party and with the sectarian politics of the past, which makes him unacceptable to many political and public groups. This, according to the expert, dramatically increases the conflict potential of his possible return to power.
During his last term (2010-2014), al–Maliki pursued a policy aimed at supporting the Shiite majority and ousting Sunnis from key positions in the government, army, police and special services. Sunni politicians have been arrested. This caused a deep sense of alienation among the population, created favorable conditions for the revival of radical Sunni groups, and eventually led to the lightning seizure of significant territories by ISIS militants in June 2014 (the Islamic State, IS, an organization recognized as a terrorist and banned in Russia).
What does this mean for Moscow
The nomination of al-Maliki could provoke serious negative consequences for Iraq, from deepening internal divisions to increasing external interference. In particular, pressure on Baghdad to neutralize pro-Iranian armed structures is possible, which is fraught with destabilization of the situation in the country. In this context, Kirill Semenov characterizes al-Maliki as a toxic figure capable of shaking an already fragile balance.
"A negative scenario for Russia would be if, upon al-Maliki's return, protests and the collapse of the political system begin," the expert said in an interview with Izvestia.
At the same time, the orientalist believes that there is still an understanding of the risks associated with his candidacy within the Shiite camp. According to him, some of al-Maliki's supporters may reconsider their position, realizing the scale of the possible consequences, which leaves a chance to block his nomination and search for an alternative, less controversial figure for the post of head of government.
The scenario of al-Maliki's return to power remains realistic, but fraught with serious risks, Iraqi military analyst Safaa al-Assam told Izvestia. According to him, the Sunni bloc directly warns of a repeat of the crises of the 2006-2014 period, when, according to al-Maliki's opponents, his policies contributed to the growth of terrorist activity and the aggravation of sectarian confrontation.
Safaa al-Assam believes that additional uncertainty is caused by pressure from the United States. This increases the foreign policy risks for Baghdad and complicates the process of forming a government.
— Speaking of the possible consequences for Iraq's relations with Russia, al-Maliki's third term could potentially give an impetus to cooperation in the energy and military spheres. He has traditionally built a balance between Iran and other external actors, and his return is likely to lead to stronger ties with Tehran. Moscow may receive indirect benefits, taking into account coordination with Iran in a number of regional areas, primarily in the Middle East," the expert told Izvestia.
At the same time, the tension associated with the appointment of al-Maliki arose against the background of the withdrawal of the forces of the international coalition led by the United States from the country. In January 2026, the contingent has already left the territory of Iraq, with the exception of the semi-autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan, and the final withdrawal is expected by September. This creates a window of vulnerability: Shiite forces, including supporters of al-Maliki, see the return of the prime minister as a chance to strengthen their influence, while the United States fears that without their presence, Iran and its allies will fill the vacuum.
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