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- On the verge of closure: the "birth rate of business" has fallen to a minimum in 14 years
On the verge of closure: the "birth rate of business" has fallen to a minimum in 14 years
The minimum number of companies has opened in Russia in 14 years, FinExpertiza calculated for Izvestia based on data from the Federal Tax Service. The number of new legal entities decreased by 20% last year, while organizations began to close significantly more often. Most of the firms were liquidated by decisions of the tax authorities due to signs of fictitiousness. The rest suspended their activities due to lack of money for bankruptcy, failure to report, and at the initiative of the owners. Developers and retailers were the hardest hit. The reasons lie in expensive loans, lower demand, increased fiscal burden and tighter controls. How the situation will develop this year and what support measures are available to entrepreneurs can be found in the Izvestia article.
What is the reason for the liquidation of business in Russia?
In 2025, 173 thousand legal entities were registered in Russia, which is 20% less than in 2024. This is the minimum for the last 14 years, according to calculations by the FinExpertiza audit and consulting network based on data from the tax service. Izvestia sent a request to the Federal Tax Service.
At the same time, the number of liquidations increased by 15%, to 233 thousand companies. As a result, there were 26% more closures than openings. Despite this, the total number of commercial organizations decreased slightly — by 2%, to 2.6 million.
The majority of companies (88%) were excluded from the Unified State Register of Legal Entities (USRLE) by decision of the tax authorities, the study says. More than half of them — 110 thousand — had signs of fictitiousness: mass addresses, nominal managers and formal operations.
The rest of the closures were caused by liquidations initiated by the owners and inactive firms that did not submit reports and did not conduct operations on accounts. According to analysts, the owners of such companies may be included in the register of disqualified persons and lose the right to open a new business for three years.
13% of closures were due to simplified procedures — companies were excluded from the register due to lack of funds for full-fledged bankruptcy. Some of the firms were liquidated for formal reasons — due to deadlines and errors in documents.
At the same time, in 17 regions the number of new companies exceeded the number of closed ones, and in 60 regions the business declined. The largest increase was recorded in Dagestan, Kalmykia and Krasnodar Krai, and the strongest decline was in the capital, St. Petersburg and the Sverdlovsk region.
At the same time, small and medium-sized businesses continue to grow at the expense of individual entrepreneurs. Last year in the SME sector (including individual entrepreneurs) Almost 1.3 million new participants appeared, and in January 2026 the total number of small entities in the country approached 7 million, said Alexander Isaevich, CEO of SME Corporation.
According to him, the reduction in the number of legal entities is offset by an increase in the share of sole proprietors: if ten years ago the ratio was 50-50, today it is 32-68 in favor of individual entrepreneurs due to easier opening and running a business.
Why are fewer legal entities being opened in Russia?
The reduction in the number of new companies in 2025 is due to rising costs, expensive loans, and stricter financial and tax discipline requirements. In these circumstances, launching a business has become a particularly balanced decision, said Sergey Katyrin, Head of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
Entrepreneurs are now focusing on the development and preservation of existing projects, rather than launching new ones, added Andrey Shubin, executive director of Opora Russia. According to him, caution has increased against the background of weak economic growth, uncertainty and sanctions pressure.
An additional factor was the tightening of control over the "fragmentation" of business, said Dmitry Panov, coordinator of Delovaya Rossiya for the Northwestern Federal District. Thanks to the active work of the Federal Tax Service, companies have become more cautious about assessing the risks of artificial separation and the creation of "empty" legal entities.
Another problem is the growth of non—payments in the economy, the expert continued. Delays on the part of customers are hitting performers, especially those who work with government orders and large corporations. In such circumstances, banks are tightening their loans, which can lead to business closures.
Entrepreneurs are saving up resources and waiting for the key rate to decrease in order to take out loans on more acceptable terms and recruit a team, added Ekaterina Kosareva, Managing Partner of VMT Consult. According to her, the situation is affected by tax changes, as well as the transition of many companies to pay VAT in 2025. In addition, entry into a number of niches has become more difficult due to high competition, low profitability, and legal restrictions. A separate problem is the shortage of personnel against the background of the demographic gap, the expert emphasized.
In addition, the withdrawal of some foreign companies from Russian jurisdiction continues, Ekaterina Kosareva added.
Companies are also closing due to rising insurance premiums and the desire to reduce the cost of maintaining "spare" legal entities, said Andrey Shubin. The tax amnesty has also contributed, because of which business unites structures.
At the same time, due to increased control, there are fewer one-day firms in the country, said Natalia Milchakova, analyst at Freedom Finance Global. In her opinion, this process should not be hindered, and it is better to encourage business with amnesty and cancellation of old fines when leaving the shadows.
In which areas do businesses close more often?
Most of the legal entities are closed in trade and intermediary services, where there are traditionally many formal structures and one-day firms, said Andrey Shubin from Opora Russia.
— The increased control of the Federal Tax Service and the purging of inactive legal entities have led to mass closures in these segments. There are also noticeable reductions in construction, real estate, and service companies that are heavily dependent on investments, loans, and government orders. Due to the decrease in profitability and the postponement of projects, the number of liquidations and bankruptcies has increased here," the expert added.
The automotive business is especially often shut down due to increased recycling and low demand, added Natalia Milchakova from Freedom Finance Global. Many microfinance organizations have also left the market due to high interest rates and stricter requirements for borrowers.
The fashion industry also remains among the leaders in the number of closures, Ekaterina Kosareva from VMT Consult noted. Declining demand in offline outlets, competition with marketplaces, and rising costs (for rent, salaries, and import purchases) have increased the pressure on this business. Developers are also in the problem area: the incomes of developers are no longer comparable with the boom period of preferential mortgages, and the drop in the number of new projects is hitting manufacturers of building materials, repair firms and furniture studios.
What will happen to the business in 2026
In 2026, the trend of reducing the number of legal entities is likely to continue, but it will be accompanied by an expansion of the business and an increase in its stability, says Sergey Katyrin from the Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
Now, according to Andrey Shubin from Opora Russia, microbusiness in the regions is having a hard time adjusting to the new rules.: reducing the simplified tax limit from 60 to 20 million before the New Year, not everyone managed to take into account in their plans. By the way, Vladimir Putin said at a meeting with the government on January 21 that it was necessary to avoid an excessive increase in the tax burden on entrepreneurs and an increase in their costs against the background of the new rules. The President supported the idea of a transitional tax period for small businesses in 2026.
Entrepreneurs will be deterred by tight monetary policy, banks' caution in lending to small companies and increased tax control, predicts Yaroslav Kabakov, Director of Strategy at Finam IC. But some improvement, he said, is possible with lower rates and a recovery in demand. According to the Central Bank's forecast, in 2026 the average key rate will be 13-15% against the current 16%.
Tax and regulatory breaks, the expansion of preferential loans, the fight against non-payments from large customers and the reduction of non-tax costs could support the business, Andrei Shubin believes. Bankruptcy reform with an emphasis on rehabilitation rather than liquidation of companies may also be an important step, Dmitry Panov from Delovaya Rossiya added.
However, a number of measures to support small businesses are already in place. As Alexander Isaevich from the SME Corporation reminded, umbrella guarantees, preferential financial programs for SMEs from priority industries, as well as preferential leasing at 6% for Russian and 8% for foreign equipment are available to small players.
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