Short and expensive: after the tax increase, the business sharply increased prices
After the tax changes came into force, companies significantly increased the prices of their products. Since this year, prices in the field of logistics have increased sharply (up to 20%), services and IT, Izvestia found out. Many enterprises increased the cost of goods back in 2025, preparing for a 2 p.p. VAT increase. Now products and services have sharply increased in price once again — after the New Year. Business, in addition to taxes, explains this by rising wages and rising fuel prices, but the costs were eventually shifted to consumers. The FAS promised to respond. Whether this can be considered an abuse is in the Izvestia article.
How prices changed in 2026
Since 2026, Russian business has increased prices. For example, logistics companies have announced tariff adjustments of 10-20% since the new year, Sergey Katyrin, head of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia. The companies attributed this to the increase in VAT by 2 percentage points — up to 22% — from January 1.
In logistics, the cost of fuel and maintenance of equipment have also increased, said Fyodor Sidorov, founder of the School of Practical Investment.
At the same time, back in 2025, a significant part of the business immediately included future tax changes in the new price lists in order to avoid sudden jumps later, Sergey Katyrin noted. From October to December, the business, waiting for the adjustments to take effect, raised the cost of its products to 10%, independent expert Andrey Barkhota believes.
In addition, he continued, in the service sector — catering, fitness, private medicine and education — the price increase since January has averaged about 8-10%. A number of network players announced the indexation in advance, back in the fourth quarter of last year, directly indicating an increase in wages, rent and utility costs.
Prices in IT and digital services have increased by 5-7% since this year, Sergey Katyrin said. The main cost items here are jobs, servers and telecommunication equipment, said Alexey Begaev, founder of the Insek Group of companies. He clarified that in this segment, businesses increased the cost of services by 30-50% in 2025.
Now, after the New Year's rush, many enterprises are facing a shortage of inventory, and market conditions are also pushing prices up, said Alexey Konoplev, a retail entrepreneur and founder of Copterdrone.
At the beginning of this year, the inflation rate in the country as a whole accelerated. From January 1 to January 12, prices increased by an average of 1.26%, according to Rosstat data.
Vegetables became the growth leaders (cucumbers added 21%, and tomatoes — 13.5%) — in general, fruit and vegetable products rose in price by 7.9%. This is partly influenced by the seasonal factor. However, for comparison, prices increased less last year. From January 1 to January 9, cucumbers gained 7.7%, and on January 10-13 — only 0.7%. While tomatoes initially rose in price by almost 1%, and then reduced the cost by 0.5%.
At the same time, in the autumn of 2025, after the announcements of a possible increase in VAT, these products also increased in price - for example, cucumbers rose in price in October and November by 12 and 26%, respectively, and tomatoes by 22.4 and 9.2%.
Izvestia has contacted the FAS for comment. They reported that they had already sent requests to the largest producers of protected soil vegetables — companies belonging to the ROST, ECO-Culture, Gorkunov, Magnit, Greenhouses of the Regions and My Summer groups.
Can such a price increase be called an abuse?
On the one hand, tax changes can really set the stage for a review of prices, said Irina Sozdatel, Vice-President of the Association of Exporters and Importers. However, when the tax was increased by 2 percentage points, many organizations raised prices much more. The problem begins where the increase goes beyond reasonable limits and does not correlate with the actual increase in workload, the expert added.
In addition, some companies have moved from the segment of small and medium-sized businesses to large ones. This is due to lower thresholds for the application of the simplified taxation system (STS). So, in 2026, only those whose incomes for 2025 did not exceed 20 million rubles will be exempt from paying tax on the tax system. At the same time, the threshold will continue to decrease — in 2027 it will amount to 15 million, and then 10 million.
But in any case, a business price increase of 10% or more can actually be considered an abuse, an attempt not only to compensate for fiscal expenses, but also to make additional profits, says Vasily Kutyin, Director of analytics at Ingo Bank.
According to Alexey Poroshin, CEO of the First Group, this indicator can also be correlated with inflation. The target was initially set in Russia — the Central Bank traditionally focuses on a level of about 4%, and this year the target range is about 4-5%. Any excess of this level can already be considered as a deviation from the acceptable limits. In fact, price increases above 5% are considered abuse, he noted.
This year, services from various sectors of the economy will increase unevenly. For example, in the IT sector, growth is likely to be up to 40%, private investor Fyodor Sidorov believes. In construction, materials will rise in price by 5-15%, and work by 10-20% due to product labeling and a shortage of workers.
Structural reasons are increasing the pressure: staff shortages and outstripping wage growth, a high key rate that is still high, and working capital, he added.
According to experts interviewed by Izvestia, the first quarter will be tense. As monetary conditions soften, price growth should weaken, Fyodor Sidorov reminded. Such a scenario is realistic if there are no external shocks.
Irina Sozdatel believes that, probably, in the coming months, the market will enter a calmer mode, and regulators will decide where the price increase was economically justified and where it could be excessive.
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