Package with missiles: Russia does not expect the withdrawal of the US nuclear arsenal from Europe

American nuclear weapons will remain in Europe, and they will be consistently upgraded, the Russian Foreign Ministry told Izvestia. Amid the controversy over Greenland, demands for the withdrawal of the US nuclear arsenal from their territories are growing in European NATO member countries. However, experts do not rule out, on the contrary, an increase in such weapons at American bases in Europe. Meanwhile, Britain and France are modernizing their own arsenals, and Paris is ready to provide its guarantees to other EU states. These plans are hampered by the lack of necessary infrastructure and a bias towards the marine component of the nuclear triad.

The United States will leave nuclear weapons in Europe

The crisis over Greenland is intensifying the contradictions between the United States and European countries. The discrepancies relate not only to trade policy, but also to demands for the withdrawal of American nuclear weapons from the EU. In particular, Sevim Dagdelen, a foreign policy expert of the German Sarah Wagenknecht Union for Reason and Justice party, made such a statement. Kai Gottschalk, a member of the Bundestag from the Alternative for Germany party, said that Germany needed such weapons because of Donald Trump's claims to Greenland.

The US nuclear potential in Europe will not only be preserved, but will also be modernized, the director of the Department of European Affairs told Izvestia The Russian Foreign Ministry Vladislav Maslennikov.

— The question of the degree of replacement of the US military presence in Europe by the forces of the European Union is rather hypothetical. The EU's real operational, intelligence, logistical, and strategic infrastructure remains deeply dependent on the United States and NATO. If we talk about the American nuclear potential in Europe, then, most likely, it will not only remain, but will also be consistently modernized," the diplomat said.

View of Aviano Air Base in Italy

Photo: US Air Force

Washington currently maintains about 100 B61 tactical nuclear bombs at its Buchel (Germany), Kleine-Brogel (Belgium), Volkel (Netherlands), Aviano and Ghedi (Italy), and Incirlik (Turkey) air bases. Such data follows from the bulletin of atomic scientists and the Federation of American Scientists. Experts do not rule out that another 15-20 B61-12 bombs are also deployed at Lakenheath Air base in the UK.

These countries participate in the Nuclear Sharing program, according to which non-nuclear NATO members accept nuclear weapons on their territory, participate in planning their use, and their military and aviation are involved in nuclear strike training. By the way, Greece previously participated in this program, and now Poland is actively trying to join.

American B61-12 nuclear bombs

Photo: Sandia National Laboratories

The scenario of the withdrawal of American nuclear weapons from Europe remains unlikely, even if implemented, it will require a revision of defense agreements and a lengthy procedure for the transfer of weapons. In addition, unlike France and the United Kingdom, the rest of Europe still relies on the American nuclear umbrella, Ivan Loshkarev, associate professor of political Theory at the MGIMO Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia.

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Therefore, a pan-European consensus on this issue is unlikely to be achieved, especially given the positioning of NATO as a nuclear alliance. In addition, Washington still has the opportunity to modernize its presence in Europe. In particular, the United States has a stockpile of free-falling bombs for both tactical and strategic aviation, and the number of nuclear weapons at European bases can be increased, Dmitry Stefanovich, a researcher at the IMEMO RAS Center for International Security, told Izvestia.

— It is possible that new types of non-strategic nuclear weapons may appear in the American arsenal, which can also be deployed in a forward-based format. At the same time, the main American efforts in the field of nuclear deterrence are aimed at the Pacific direction, and not at the European one," Stefanovich said.

The launcher of the American Dark Eagle complex

Photo: army.mil

The American nuclear presence in Europe is one of the elements of US influence that Washington is unlikely to abandon. According to political scientist Denis Denisov, this topic will not be made public in the near future.

It is important that during 2024-2025, according to media reports, the Americans have almost completed the replacement of the old B61 bombs with precision guided bombs B61-12. In addition, the deployment of Tomahawk and Dark Eagle ground-based systems capable of carrying long-range missiles should begin in Germany from the beginning of 2026.

Launch of the Sarmat stationary intercontinental ballistic missile from the Plesetsk cosmodrome in the Arkhangelsk region

Photo: RIA Novosti/Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation

In response to such actions, in August last year, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced the lifting of the moratorium on the deployment of intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles, as the conditions for its preservation had disappeared. Russia is also modernizing its nuclear potential and increasing its application capabilities. The share of modern weapons in the strategic nuclear forces of the Russian Federation has reached 95%, Vladimir Putin said earlier. In particular, the Sarmat complexes with a flight range of up to 18 thousand km are on combat duty. And in 2023, non-strategic nuclear weapons of the Russian Federation were deployed on the territory of Belarus.

Moscow is focused on developing its own counteraction measures, while at the same time not closing the negotiating track. For example, the Russian Federation has previously made constructive proposals to extend START III, which expires on February 5. However, the American side has not yet provided an exhaustive answer.

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Will France and Britain create their own nuclear umbrella over the EU

Nevertheless, Europe is also actively developing its missile and nuclear weapons. France is improving its own nuclear arsenal by creating third—generation nuclear submarines, as well as new sea-based and air-launched missiles. Of the record defense budget of €413 billion planned for the period 2024-2030, more than €53 billion will be allocated for nuclear deterrence.

London plans to increase its arsenal of nuclear warheads from 180 to 260 units, as well as build new missile submarines. The total cost of the British program is estimated at 31-41 billion pounds. Germany is also developing its missile projects together with other EU members.

The Agamemnon-class nuclear submarine is moored at the BAE Systems plant in Barrow-in-Furness, Great Britain.

Photo: Getty Images/WPA Pool

Vladislav Maslennikov stressed that the pumping up of the military-industrial complex and the purchase of weapons are carried out at the expense of the already limited budgetary resources of the EU member states and additional tax pressure on citizens and businesses of the European Union. And this is happening in the context of serious socio-economic challenges.

— Every euro invested in the purchase of shells, missiles and drones is a euro withdrawn from education, healthcare, pension provision, migration reform and so on. The current EU leadership expects to receive a significant part of the funds for militarization through long—term loan commitments," said the director of the Department of European Problems at the Russian Foreign Ministry.

Burdening future generations of Europeans with such a large-scale debt burden will be especially difficult against the background of structural demographic problems on the continent: an aging population and a growing burden on the pension system, a reduction in the proportion of able-bodied citizens and a chronically low birth rate.

French nuclear submarine in Toulon harbor

Photo: Getty Images/Alexis Rosenfeld

— At the same time, the main beneficiaries of the course towards the militarization of Europe are the leading military—industrial concerns of the EU and the United States, closely linked to the political establishment. They are profiting from large government contracts, securing record profits, while other sectors of the economy are experiencing an acute shortage of investments," Maslennikov concluded.

At the same time, France's ambitions imply the deployment of its own nuclear umbrella over Europe. President of the Fifth Republic Emmanuel Macron spoke about this in March last year. Willingness to participate in this initiative was expressed in Germany, Poland and Lithuania. Unlike France, Britain has not yet proposed creating a "European nuclear shield" independent of the United States.

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The French and British nuclear arsenals are quite specific in nature, with a significant emphasis on the naval component. However, aviation is now beginning to play an increasingly important "signaling" role in Paris, and in the future it is quite possible to base French Rafale aircraft with supersonic missiles of the ASMP family (existing only in the nuclear version) on the territory of other EU countries, Dmitry Stefanovich believes.

French Rafale fighter jet with ASMP supersonic missile

Photo: MBDA

— Recently, there has been speculation about the possibility of Britain joining the French ASN4G advanced strategic hypersonic air-launched cruise missile program, especially the experience of joint development of non-nuclear cruise missiles (SCALP/Storm Shadow) these countries have, and the current project of advanced cruise and anti—ship missiles Stratus is also being implemented, - said the expert.

Dmitry Stefanovich suggests that in France, against the background of the development of medium-range land-based missiles, they may think about their nuclear options, especially since they already have such experience, the corresponding missile systems were decommissioned only in the 1990s.

Ivan Loshkarev draws attention to the fact that the current military infrastructure of Europe is not ready for the presence of French or British nuclear forces. For example, French submarines require a certain depth of basing, which is not available in European countries. Fighters with nuclear warheads must be positioned very close to a potential enemy in order for them to provide a retaliatory strike. This creates a threat of their destruction.