Disarmed to the teeth: the UN called for reducing the world's nuclear arsenal
Nuclear risks have become alarmingly high, the official representative of the UN Secretary General, Farhan Haq, told Izvestia. According to him, disarmament will help strengthen the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). Such a reaction on the world stage was caused by statements by American President Donald Trump, who had previously promised to start nuclear tests for the first time since 1992. However, Washington's position regularly changes — on November 6, the head of the White House already started talking about disarmament, calling on Russia and China to do so. Beijing has so far been skeptical about the proposal from overseas. Experts believe that in the current conditions, it is not easy to conclude specific agreements, to put it mildly.
Nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation
Nuclear disarmament is one of the best ways to strengthen the NPT, Deputy Official Representative of the UN Secretary General Farhan Haq told Izvestia.
"The Secretary—General has repeatedly stated that the current nuclear risks are already alarmingly high and it is necessary to avoid any actions that could lead to an escalation with catastrophic consequences," the representative of the organization stressed.
Farhan Haq added: nuclear disarmament and non—proliferation are two sides of the same coin.
"One of the best ways to strengthen the NPT and the non—proliferation regime is to ensure the full implementation of all obligations assumed under the treaty, including those related to nuclear disarmament," he continued.
Earlier, the American leader announced a decision to resume nuclear weapons tests, which he wants to conduct immediately. According to Trump, he has already instructed the Ministry of War to deal with this issue. The head of the White House wants to conduct tests on a par with other nuclear countries. However, he did not specify which states he was referring to — neither China nor Russia had conducted them in recent decades.
Trump's statements were taken very seriously in Russia. Vladimir Putin instructed the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Defense and the special services to develop proposals on the possibility of preparing nuclear weapons tests. Moscow's position is clear: Russia strictly adheres to its obligations under the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), but will be forced to react if realities change. The Soviet Union last conducted nuclear tests in 1990. Russia has never implemented them.
Donald Trump
Russian agencies are carefully monitoring the actions of the United States and other states in the nuclear field, said Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova. The diplomat noted that the situation around Washington's intention to conduct nuclear tests needs to be clarified. Currently, the signals coming from the United States are causing concern in all corners of the world and remain contradictory, the Foreign Ministry added.
The inconsistency of the White House is demonstrated by the latest statement by the same Trump — at a meeting with the leaders of the Central Asian states in Washington on November 6, he already spoke about denuclearization. According to him, under the current conditions, it is possible to carry out nuclear disarmament. In particular, Trump wants to negotiate a reduction in arsenals with Russia and China. Trump claims that he has already raised this issue with Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. At the same time, the American side has not given clear answers to Moscow's proposal to extend the Strategic Offensive Arms Treaty. The agreement, which limits the number of deployed strategic warheads to 1,550 units on each side, will expire in February 2026.
In September, Vladimir Putin said that Russia was ready to adhere to the principles of the treaty after its expiration within one year. But the measure will be viable if Washington agrees to an extension. Trump called the proposal a good idea, but no constructive steps were taken.
The issue of agreements with the United States
China has also expressed skepticism about nuclear disarmament. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning said that the United States must first create conditions for the elimination of atomic weapons. First of all, it is Washington that needs to significantly reduce its nuclear potential and fulfill its obligations on nuclear disarmament. Beijing believes that Washington's proposals are unfair, because China's nuclear arsenal is not comparable to the level of forces of the United States and Russia.
According to the Stockholm Peace Research Institute, Russia has more than 5,400 nuclear warheads, which is the world's largest arsenal. The United States has over 5,1 thousand. China's nuclear arsenal has about 600 warheads. In American circles, it is believed that these figures may not correspond to reality. According to the American expert Dmitry Drobnitsky, China legitimately does not disclose data on the volume of its nuclear weapons. The conservative American establishment is convinced that China is their main enemy, and therefore continues to involve Beijing in various kinds of treaties, the expert said.
China will join the agreements only if its potential is comparable to Russia and the United States, said Konstantin Blokhin, a researcher at the Center for Security Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences.
"So either China needs to grow to the level of Russia and the United States, or Russia and the United States need to reduce their nuclear potential to the level of China," he said.
However, there is no certainty that Moscow and Washington will be able to agree on reducing nuclear weapons in the current conditions — the unresolved conflict in Ukraine hinders any bilateral deals, especially on such an acute topic. In addition, the United States, without the involvement of China, may simply abandon any agreements exclusively with Moscow, Blokhin warned. However, there is another difficult point on the path of disarmament: the Russian Federation proceeds from the fact that it is necessary to take into account the combined arsenal of NATO countries — that is, not only the capabilities of the United States, but also Great Britain and France. And Moscow's relations with these countries are now even worse than with Washington.
In addition, the Russian Federation understands the risks associated with the US approach to any agreements. Washington adheres to them only as long as it is beneficial to it, and the American establishment does not care about the system of international law, Drobnitsky is sure.
In addition, the Republican Party, the current ruling force in the United States, believes that arms control treaties constrain the United States' capabilities in the world and prevent it from projecting American power. Under President George W. Bush, the Americans withdrew from the ABM Treaty, and under Trump, during his first term, they abandoned the Intermediate–Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF).
The prospect of comprehensive nuclear disarmament is still remote, said Tigran Meloyan, an analyst at the HSE Center for Mediterranean Studies. Russia is showing sincere interest in this, while other players are not ready for meaningful negotiations. The worst development of events now seems to be that practical steps towards such negotiations can only be laid through escalation.
— The main line of disagreement is related to the fact that the United States is not ready to participate in nuclear disarmament without guarantees that China will fully participate in it. Moreover, there have been increasing voices in the United States lately in favor of expanding nuclear arsenals to ensure strategic parity with almost the combined arsenals of Russia and China," he told Izvestia.
Minuteman III Rocket Launch
This creates a classic security dilemma when each state seeks to strengthen or maintain its nuclear deterrence capabilities, fearing that unilateral cuts or agreements that exclude another important player will endanger their own security, the expert concluded.
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