A special agreement is needed: Iran and the United States are looking for a new deal.
The topic of negotiations between Iran and the United States suddenly returned to the agenda. Tehran has declared its readiness to guarantee the peaceful nature of its nuclear program for the lifting of sanctions. However, the experts interviewed by Izvestia are convinced that the sides are deterred by the high risks associated with the conflict, and not by diplomatic tools. In addition, the United States, despite softening its rhetoric, is building up its strike force by continuing to deploy an aircraft carrier strike group from the South China Sea to the Middle East. Iran also keeps its forces in a state of absolute combat readiness. Whether to expect a US strike on the republic and how Tehran reacts to what is happening is in the Izvestia article.
Iran has proposed a new nuclear deal
Since the end of December, protests have not subsided in Iran, and Washington explicitly declares its intention to support the protesters. Against this background, the Foreign Minister of the Islamic Republic, Abbas Araqchi, declared Tehran's readiness to guarantee that its nuclear program would remain peaceful in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. This was the first such statement made by a senior Iranian official in recent months, and raised hopes for de-escalation in the Middle East.
Araqchi's statement differs from the rhetoric of other senior Iranian officials, who emphasize the importance of maintaining "red lines," which include the right to develop a nuclear program without making public concessions to Washington. At the same time, the White House reported earlier that Donald Trump canceled meetings with Iranian officials, explaining this as a reaction "to the killing of peaceful protesters." Now, the United States is hinting that it is ready for discussions, including on the issue of easing sanctions.
The key issue on the agenda is the contours of a possible deal. Experts interviewed by Izvestia note that the White House interprets the Iranian issue more broadly than the "nuclear dossier," including the need for internal political changes in Iran. Moreover, Donald Trump has always been an ardent opponent of the previous deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), concluded in 2015 under Barack Obama. The essence of the JCPOA was for Iran to limit its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of international sanctions.
Nikita Degtyarev, coordinator of scientific research at the Open Nuclear Network, believes that so far the resumption of constructive dialogue between the United States and Iran looks unlikely, although there are chances to return to negotiations.
— The possibilities for a diplomatic settlement are narrowing even more against the background of the general instability of the international situation. However, dialogue cannot be completely ruled out, as internal political and economic instability may push the Iranian leadership to limited dialogue and concessions as a tool to reduce external pressure and stabilize the situation inside the country," the source said.
The White House earlier announced the imposition of 25 percent duties on all countries cooperating with Iran. The US Treasury also announced on January 15 the expansion of sanctions against Iran, extending them to 11 more people and 13 organizations. The European partners of the Americans are also threatening with restrictions. Thus, the European Commission did not rule out the possibility of tougher measures due to the suppression of protests. Switzerland may also join the possible sanctions, despite the fact that Bern has previously stated its readiness to mediate between Tehran and Washington.
— The Embargo Law allows the Federal Council to apply enforcement measures to ensure compliance with sanctions adopted by the UN, OSCE or Switzerland's main trading partners, in practice the EU. There are currently no EU decisions regarding the recent protests in Iran. If the EU decides on new sanctions, Switzerland will consider whether it will join them fully, partially or not," Fabian Mayenfisch, an official representative of the Swiss State Secretariat for the Economy (SECO), told Izvestia.
According to reports distributed by the Iranian Embassy in Russia, the situation in the country remains generally calm. Since January 10, the security forces have not allowed riots. US President Donald Trump also drew attention to these changes, noting the cessation of executions of protesters. A little later, the Republican informed Tehran that the United States had promised not to strike Iran, said the Iranian ambassador to Pakistan, Reza Amiri Moghaddam. The AFP news agency reported that Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Oman convinced Trump not to hit the republic.
"The United States is demonstrating a lack of desire to seriously escalate the situation by military attack, bombing or causing serious damage to Iran's infrastructure,— political analyst Dastan Tokoldoshev told Izvestia.
The chances for dialogue and a possible clash between the United States and Iran
At the same time, Tehran and Washington are in no hurry to resume contacts, including within the framework of the "Oman format", which worked until the "12-day war" between Iran and Israel, which broke out in June last year. New meetings are being discussed with caution, and the issue of lifting sanctions against the republic is being discussed solely as a hypothetical one.
The reason is the difficulty of developing guarantees. According to sources in The Washington Post, Russia is acting as a mediator in the multilateral negotiations between the United States, Israel and Iran, which has recorded the commitments of West Jerusalem and Tehran not to proactively attack the opponent. Turkey is also striving to play the role of mediator, whose officials recently held meetings with representatives of both the American and Iranian diplomatic corps. This made it possible to create additional communication channels. Sufficient for the parties to make the first cautious statements.
Iran is currently keeping its troops on high alert. The response level was further increased after the United States moved KC-135 Stratotanker refueling aircraft and several E-3 Sentry long-range radar detection aircraft to the Hawaii base. And although the Pentagon has stated that the sides are involved in the Sentry Aloha exercises, even minus the Hawaiian contingent, the United States has assembled a serious fist in the region. In addition, an aircraft carrier strike group has been sent from the South China Sea to the region, the size of which is not specified.
At the same time, the United States is increasing its presence in the Red Sea, where there are at least three missile destroyers and a submarine. By the end of the day on January 14, they were reinforced by the aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt. Apparently, Washington is concentrating forces here in case Iran's allies decide to join the conflict or resume the naval blockade of Israel.
Dmitry Kornev, a military expert and editor of the Militaryrussia portal, believes that the United States may try to attack Iran with Tomahawk cruise missiles, as well as tactical and strategic aviation forces.
— The algorithm of the probable operation is as follows. The first is the suppression of control. The first strike with JASSM-ER missiles on decision-making centers and communication nodes. The second is the blinding of air defense. A combined attack by aircraft and cruise missiles on radar stations and anti-aircraft complexes. The third is the methodical destruction of infrastructure. Tomohawk is working on pre—scouted targets," he told Izvestia.
According to the analyst, the United States plans to build protection against an imminent retaliatory strike on a layered missile defense system, including Patriot PAC-3 complexes and Israeli interception systems. The bet is that a preemptive strike will be so disorganizing that Tehran's potential response will be limited and fragmented, Dmitry Kornev explained.
In the meantime, the United States is preparing for possible "preventive" strikes from Iran. Moreover, the Iranian security forces have repeatedly warned that the country will switch to proactive defense if it sees signs of a threat. In addition to calling on foreign citizens in Iran to leave the country "as soon as possible," the United States partially evacuated military personnel from Qatar's Al-Udeid airbase, which Tehran had already attacked in June 2025. The Israelis did the same, withdrawing part of their forces from the Nevatim airbase. In addition, according to Israeli media reports, the Wings of Zion government plane left the country.
At the same time, the United States has a reason to resume dialogue with Iran. On January 14, the White House announced the beginning of a new phase of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. According to the roadmap, the second stage involves the establishment of an international governing body in the Palestinian exclave (the "Peace Council"), the demilitarization of Palestinian armed groups and the clearance of areas affected by the fighting. Since Iran remains a serious player in the Gaza Strip, while maintaining influence over Hamas, escalation is fraught with a resumption of conflict in the Palestinian exclave.
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