Tank vision: oil companies are preparing a new standard to stabilize gasoline prices
To stabilize gasoline prices, oil companies may be required to sell 1% of their fuel directly to gas stations, farmers, and industrial consumers. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak instructed the Ministry of Energy, the Federal Antimonopoly Service and the Stock Exchange to work on this issue, Izvestia learned. Experts believe that such a measure is unlikely to have a strong impact on the market and the dynamics of retail prices, which have already increased by one ruble since the beginning of the year. However, it will help small wholesale consumers, including owners of independent gas stations, to buy gasoline and diesel directly from oil companies, bypassing the margin of traders. Izvestia figured out what to expect for the fuel market in 2026.
The essence of the Cabinet's instructions
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak ordered the Ministry of Energy, the Federal Antimonopoly Service and the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange to work out the issue of introducing a mandatory standard for exchange sales of gasoline and diesel in the small wholesale segment of the market in the amount of up to 1% of production. At the same time, it is proposed to reduce the volume of fuel sales in large quantities, three sources familiar with the order told Izvestia.
One of the interlocutors clarified that at the same time, the Deputy Prime Minister instructed the government to provide materials for a meeting on the exchange trading of petroleum products.
A large wholesale business is the sale of fuel from an oil refinery by rail to a consumer (oil depot), and a small wholesale business is from an oil depot by road to a buyer (gas stations, farmers, industrialists).
By the end of 2024, gasoline production amounted to 41.1 million tons, diesel — 81.6 million tons, Alexander Novak reported. Since there is no data on fuel production for 2025, it is only possible to roughly estimate the volume of its sales in the small wholesale segment: about 400 thousand tons of gasoline and 800 thousand tons of diesel. As Ekaterina Kosareva, managing partner of VMT Consult, previously noted, the average annual consumption in Russia is approximately 37-38 million tons of gasoline and 44-45 million tons of diesel.
Currently, there is no mandatory standard for sales of motor fuel in the small wholesale segment for oil companies. According to a joint order from the Federal Antimonopoly Service and the Ministry of Energy, oil companies are required to sell 15% of their gasoline on the stock exchange. At the same time, in 2025, the Antimonopoly service was working on the issue of increasing this standard to 17%, but so far no decisions have been made on this issue.
There are also regulations for the sale of other petroleum products: for diesel fuel — 16%, jet fuel — 11%, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) — 7.5%. There is also a sales standard on the futures market (futures contracts for petroleum products with a base pricing point are traded on it), it was introduced on March 1, 2025 in the amount of 1% of petroleum products from the sales standards in the main section, but so far it is of a recommendatory nature.
According to Yuri Stankevich, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Energy, Alexander Novak's order, given on December 15, 2025, following a meeting of the headquarters on the situation on the oil products market, is based on the position of the Federal Antimonopoly Service and the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange on the need to reduce the number of intermediaries involved in the fuel supply chain from the producer to the end consumer.
— In addition to setting a standard for the minimum amount of petroleum products sold on the stock exchange in the small wholesale segment, proposals are being considered on the priority of fuel supplies at auctions to end consumers, licensing the activities of commodity brokers, and strengthening control over oil depots. The purpose of this work is to ensure transparency in the supply of petroleum products on the domestic market, and to reduce the differential between retail fuel prices for WINCS (vertically integrated oil companies) and independent companies," said Yuri Stankevich.
Izvestia sent inquiries to Alexander Novak's office, the Ministry of Energy, the Federal Antimonopoly Service, the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange and major oil companies.
The situation on the fuel market today
Last year, retail fuel prices rose significantly above inflation. According to Rosstat, in January 2025, the national average price of gasoline was 58.71 rubles per liter. In particular, a liter of AI-92 cost 55.54 rubles on average, AI-95 — 60.67 rubles, and a liter of diesel fuel — 70.66 rubles. In December 2025, the average price of gasoline in Russia was 64.7 rubles per liter. Gasoline AI-92 cost an average of 61.45 rubles, AI-95 — 66.76 rubles, diesel fuel — 75.76 rubles per liter.
Thus, the national average price of gasoline in 2025 increased by 10.2%, AI-92 increased by 10.64%, AI-95 — by 10.03%, diesel fuel — by 7.07%. And this is despite Alexander Novak's December statement that by the end of 2025, inflation in Russia will be 6%.
— A significant increase in fuel prices was caused by unscheduled repairs at Russian refineries. Towards the end of the year, the situation stabilized, and stock prices began to decline," Ekaterina Kosareva recalled.
However, in the first days of 2026, gas station chains increased the prices of gasoline and diesel. According to the Russian Fuel Union (RTS, which unites retail fuel market operators), by January 12, 2026, compared with December 29, 2025, the cost of fuel at Russian gas stations increased by one ruble per liter on average in the country. Both oil companies and private networks have increased prices at gas station steles, according to the union's data.
A source in the industry told Izvestia that at the end of 2025, Russian oil companies were concerned about the marginality of retail fuel sales due to changes in the VAT rate. At a meeting with Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak on December 15, relevant regulators were instructed to submit retail price calculations to the government.
— The logic of the oil industry is more than simple. If the price is not raised by the amount of the VAT increase starting from the new year, the economy will go into negative territory," the source said.
It is also taken into account that since January 1, 2026, fuel excise taxes have increased by about 5%: the excise tax on fifth—class gasoline — from 17,088 thousand to 17,959 thousand rubles per 1 ton, the excise tax on diesel fuel - from 12,12 thousand to 12,738 thousand rubles per 1 ton.
What to expect from the fuel market next
According to Ekaterina Kosareva, the New Year's price increase was expected last year. And, of course, regulators have been thinking about a number of measures aimed at supporting the domestic market.
— It is impossible to exclude a further increase in fuel prices, at least within the framework of inflation. But the measure that the cabinet proposed to work out is to set a sales standard for oil companies in the small wholesale segment, which will allow consumers, including owners of independent gas stations, to buy gasoline and diesel directly from oil companies, bypassing traders' margins, which will have a restraining effect on prices," she said.
Tamara Safonova, General Director of the Independent Analytical Agency for the Oil and Gas Sector (NAANS-Media), agrees that the introduction of a mandatory sales standard in the small wholesale segment may have an impact on increasing fuel availability for independent gas stations.
— It is difficult for independent gas stations to compete with vertically integrated oil companies, and the opportunity to purchase small wholesale shipments directly from producers on the exchange platform can have a positive impact on the market. To ensure the effectiveness of these measures, it is crucial to maintain the level of production and distribution of fuel that meets demand in the domestic market of the country, the expert believes.
Dmitry Gusev, Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Reliable Partner Association, believes that the introduction of the standard will encourage oil companies to trade small wholesale. However, he does not rule out that traders will continue to buy fuel trucks.
According to Dmitry Gusev, such a measure was initiated, among other things, as part of the initiatives of Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin, who at the end of last year, in his letter to the Cabinet of Ministers, criticized the government's proposals to compensate for fuel shortages by producing gasoline of reduced quality. And in his letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin, he named traders as one of the key causes of instability in the country's fuel market.
Therefore, the expert believes that the increase in fuel prices will be within the framework of inflation or "slightly higher".
Yuri Stankevich believes that the proposed measures in terms of influencing wholesale and retail prices are rather cosmetic in nature.
— In 2025, the dynamics of gas station prices was almost twice as high as the official inflation. The reason for this is a local shortage of gasoline, especially in summer and early autumn, due to unplanned refinery repairs, an increase in confirmed expenses of market participants and an increased tax burden. The last two factors will remain important in 2026," he believes.
The increase in VAT and excise tax rates on gasoline and diesel since January 1 has already affected fuel prices at gas stations. For this reason, the primary task of regulators and companies is to keep refining volumes at least at the level of 2024, the expert concluded.
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