Next episode: who was the target of the retaliation strike on the night of January 9th
If Ukrainians go to provocations, they should receive an adequate response to this, the Federation Council told Izvestia. Moscow, on the other hand, does not seek escalation, and the strike on targets in Lviv serves as a warning, in particular, to the so—called coalition of the willing, which is again lobbying for unacceptable security guarantees for Ukraine for the Russian Federation, experts believe. On the night of January 9, the Russian Armed Forces used Hazelnuts in response to the recent attack on Vladimir Putin's state residence. The retaliatory strike was carried out against the background of the ongoing attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Russian territories: for example, on New Year's holidays, a Ukrainian rocket killed 29 people in Kherson, and more than half a million residents were left without electricity in the Belgorod region. At the same time, according to media reports, special representative of the US President Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner handed over to the Russian side a draft peace plan agreed with Kiev. See the Izvestia article about how the prospects for conflict resolution are changing with the onset of 2026.
Russia has hit the "Hazel Tree" for the second time
During the holidays, the conflict in Ukraine has noticeably escalated, and it seems that Kiev's efforts have already been traditional. First, on the night of December 29, there was a drone attack on Vladimir Putin's state residence in the Novgorod region. All the drones — there were more than 90 of them — were destroyed. And on January 1, the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched a targeted attack on a hotel and cafe in Khorly, Kherson region, while local residents were celebrating the new year. According to the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation, a total of 29 people died, including two children, and at least 60 were injured.
Both incidents in Moscow are classified as a terrorist act. All this resembles the "branded" handwriting of the Kiev authorities. Recall that two years ago, a tragedy occurred in Belgorod, when dozens of civilians were killed as a result of a rocket attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the city center. Just the day before, Ukraine attacked the Russian border area again — now the Belgorod region. After the shelling, more than 550,000 people remain without electricity and almost 200,000 without water.
Even after the attack on the president's state residence, the Russian side clearly stated that it would not remain unanswered. On the night of January 9, 2026, the Russian Armed Forces launched a massive strike with the Oreshnik medium-range missile system, as well as attack UAVs against critically important facilities on the territory of Ukraine.
This is the second case of the use of "Oreshnik" — on November 21, 2024, a missile strike destroyed the Yuzhmash plant in the Dnipropetrovsk region. This time, the production facilities of drones that were used for a terrorist attack on the state residence, as well as the energy infrastructure that ensures the operation of the military-industrial complex, were hit. "Any terrorist actions by the criminal Ukrainian regime will not remain unanswered in the future," the Defense Ministry stressed. In addition, against the background of incessant attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Russian Air defense is countering strikes throughout the country.
This proves that we are able to respond adequately to any threats, Grigory Karasin, chairman of the Federation Council's International Affairs Committee, told Izvestia.
— Therefore, this is how it should be perceived. We do not want forces that condone incitement (to militant acts. — Ed.) of the Ukrainian regime, dominated in all issues without exception. If Ukrainians provoke a situation, they should receive an adequate response to it. Which is exactly what happened," the senator emphasized.
Against this background, according to the head of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, Andriy Sibiga, Kiev decided to initiate an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council, the Ukraine–NATO Council, and also plans to seek the reaction of the EU, the Council of Europe and the OSCE. Kiev, of course, informed Washington about the details of the Hazel strike, expecting the support of an overseas ally. It is noteworthy that the White House has taken a rather cautious position on this issue.
In a recent conversation with Vladimir Putin immediately after the attack, Donald Trump said he was shocked and outraged by the attempted attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which would certainly affect Washington's approaches to working with Kiev. Such revelations of the US president were later shared with journalists by Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov. Moreover, Russia handed over to the US Embassy in Moscow materials with decrypted route data and the controller of the Ukrainian drone with which they tried to attack the residence. The Ministry of Defense even published a video from a meeting between the head of the GRU of the Russian General Staff, Admiral Igor Kostyukov, and a representative of the US military attache.
But a few days later, on board Air Force One, the American leader admitted that he did not believe in the version of an attempt to strike at Putin's residence, specifying only that something really happened "quite close."
— Apparently, the anti-Russian position of the special services, which are closely linked to Kiev, played a negative role. But in the United States, the agenda has changed significantly over the past 11 days due to the Venezuelan operation and internal events, so Trump probably no longer remembers the episode with the Ukrainian provocation," Oleg Karpovich, vice rector of the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry, told Izvestia.
Indeed, the international agenda has been intense in recent days, even without the development of the Ukrainian conflict. The operation of American special forces to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his subsequent arrest by a New York court caused an absolute resonance in the global political community. The rapid activity of the American administration allows us to shift the focus from Ukraine and, in particular, from the provocative actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which require international condemnation. Here, Donald Trump uses a favorite technique: to declare another political victory — in this case over the "Maduro regime" in the fight against drug trafficking in the United States, while progress on another political issue is subsiding. In addition, recognizing the incident with the state residence as an attempted terrorist attack would run counter to the political course of the United States, according to HSE analyst Tigran Meloyan.
"That would be tantamount to Washington giving Moscow full approval to inflict painful blows on Ukraine,— he said.
How is the settlement in Ukraine developing
The key issue, of course, remains the consequences of the exchanges of blows for the Ukrainian settlement, the process of which is already complicated by the destructive activity of the participants and stakeholders in the conflict. On January 6, in Paris, Vladimir Zelensky, French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer signed a declaration of intent to deploy multinational forces in Ukraine after the end of the conflict. Belgium has already joined France and Britain. However, such conditions are unacceptable for Moscow. This was once again emphasized by the Russian Foreign Ministry. "The deployment of Western troops and military facilities in Ukraine will be considered as an intervention that poses a threat to security," said Maria Zakharova, the official representative of the department. Russia is not against providing Ukraine with Western guarantees as such, the main thing is that the interests of the country are not infringed.
Unsurprisingly, there are still huge differences in the ranks of the coalition of the Willing. Italy, Croatia, the Czech Republic and Poland, in particular, opposed sending their contingents. Germany allowed the deployment of forces only "on the territory adjacent" to Ukraine by NATO. Moreover, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who, by the way, lobbied the most for granting Kiev a "reparation loan" at the expense of Russian frozen assets, bypassing not only Moscow, but also international law in general, noted that it is impossible to implement such security guarantees for Ukraine without the consent of the Russian Federation. There are also voices in favor of dialogue. "The time has come for Europe to talk to Russia," said Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
— The use of the "Hazel Tree" without a special combat unit serves as a reminder to Kiev and the "coalition of the willing" about the military capabilities of the Russian Federation, rather than Moscow's desire to increase the level of escalation. A strike a few kilometers from the Polish border should be a sobering signal," Tigran Meloyan believes.
Another determining factor is that the strike was defined by the Russian Defense Ministry as a measure of retaliation: the head of the Russian state is a key element of decision—making to ensure the country's security, the expert emphasizes. Russia has the levers and tools to stop the next Ukrainian provocations and will definitely use them if necessary to "calm down" Kiev, Oleg Karpovich notes. This was perceived in the EU in its own way: Brussels considers the strike a "Hazel Tree" warning to the European Union and the United States, said Anita Hipper, a representative of the European Commission.
This is not to say that European initiatives were supported by the United States, which did not sign a joint communique with Europe and Ukraine. Following the meeting of the coalition of the willing, Trump's special representative Steve Witkoff announced only "significant progress" in several areas of work, including the security guarantee framework.
While the Europeans are trying to advance the parameters of a peaceful settlement, its coordination still depends on Russia and the United States. In the same place, in Paris, according to Axios, citing an informed source, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner handed over to the special representative of the Russian President Kirill Dmitriev a draft peace plan agreed with Ukraine for Vladimir Putin to review. Experts agree that the same Hazel strike will not affect Russia's interest in the negotiations as a whole, and even more so it is not aimed at escalation.
— At the same time, we will not cut off the shoulder, taking into account the ongoing extremely difficult negotiations, in which the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict is being discussed. I would like to note that Kirill Dmitriev proves himself to be an extremely effective negotiator and we are all interested in the success of his difficult mission," Karpovich clarifies.
However, Moscow has not yet given public and final specifics on the draft of a future settlement. In addition, after the attack on the state residence in Moscow, they promised to review the negotiating positions. Other factors do not contribute to a constructive dialogue: for example, Zelensky's appointment of Kirill Budanov as head of the office of the President of Ukraine (listed in the Russian Federation as a terrorist and extremist), as well as further threats of tougher sanctions against Russia and the risk of a transition to a trade blockade of the Russian Federation in the Atlantic and in the waters of the Baltic and Black Sea Seas, notes Tigran Meloyan. According to him, the combined actions demonstrate a significant departure from the Russian-American agreements in Anchorage.
However, according to Axios, Vladimir Zelensky intends to finalize a deal on security guarantees for Ukraine as early as next week — at a meeting with Donald Trump in the United States or in Switzerland during the World Economic Forum in Davos.
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