Cold count: NATO is preparing for a military confrontation with Russia in the Arctic
NATO is steadily increasing its military activity in the northern latitudes, which contributes to the growing tension in the region. And Denmark, as the chairman of the Arctic Council (AU), is not in the mood to seek positive changes in the situation, Russian Ambassador to Copenhagen Vladimir Barbin told Izvestia. At the same time, US pressure on Denmark is increasing: analysts predict that Washington will transfer exclusive rights to Greenland's resources and build new American bases on the island. The scenarios for the development of the situation in the Far North are described in the Izvestia article.
Risks of conflict in the Arctic
Against the background of growing tension in the world, the Arctic remains one of the strategically important regions. Due to its geographical location, the availability of logistics routes and reserves of critical resources, it has become an arena of confrontation, which has involved not only the Arctic states, but also the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance.
The NATO bloc is not set up for dialogue, but for military confrontation and rivalry with Russia, including in the Arctic, Russian Ambassador to Copenhagen Vladimir Barbin told Izvestia.
— There is a steady increase in the military activity of NATO in the region, both at sea, on land, and in the airspace, including the armed forces of such alliance countries as France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, far from the Arctic. Denmark plays an initiative role in inviting NATO states to the Arctic," the diplomat stressed.
According to Barbin, instead of advancing the goals of developing mutually beneficial international cooperation in high latitudes, the attention of these countries is focused on military aspects. Such one-sidedness of Western priorities has a detrimental effect on the situation in the Arctic.
Last year, NATO's activity in the region reached perhaps a historic high. Arctic Forge exercises of special forces from the USA, Canada and Finland were held in Finland in February. Arctic Edge maneuvers took place in Alaska in August, where new communication systems were tested. Specialized exercises of the submarine fleets of the USA and Great Britain were also organized.
In 2025, several member countries of the bloc with territories in the Arctic have updated or published new official documents on policy in this region. For example, the new Norwegian strategy for the Far North talks about creating an integrated theater of military operations in the Arctic. Paris published its doctrinal document in the summer. It provides for the creation of a mobile logistics infrastructure and the use of civilian ports in the Nordic countries to support operations and exercises.
In recent years, the Arctic has once again become one of the key military planning regions, as it was during the Cold War. And not only for the Arctic, but also for some non-Arctic states. Currently, there is a relatively high level of military presence, activity and construction throughout the Arctic. These processes are most actively taking place in the Euro-Arctic subregion, Nikita Lipunov, a junior researcher at MGIMO, clarified in an interview with Izvestia.
— I believe that in the coming years the level of military activity and presence in the northern latitudes will remain at least at the same level. The main Arctic players of NATO from among the regional states are the United States, Canada, Norway, Denmark and Finland. Of the non—regional countries, the UK is pursuing the most active defense policy towards the Far North," the expert said.
The Arctic Council, which will mark its 30th anniversary in 2026, could prevent the militarization of the region. Denmark assumed the chairmanship of the Council last year. However, Copenhagen is not in the mood to achieve breakthrough positive changes in the development of international cooperation under the auspices of the Arctic Council, the Russian ambassador to the kingdom told Izvestia.
— The disappointing state of affairs in the Arctic Council is the choice of our neighbors in the region, who refused to cooperate with our country. As a result, the region's common challenges in the field of ecology, the effects of climate change, the conservation of biodiversity, and the sustainable development of economic and transport potential remain without a proper joint response from the Arctic states," the diplomat said.
Today, the Arctic Council remains the main, if not the only, multilateral mechanism for Russia's interaction with the Arctic states of NATO, given that in 2023 the Russian Federation withdrew from the Barents Council./The Euro-Arctic Region (BEAC), and in 2025, the Russia–NATO Council was abolished. In the absence of alternatives, the Arctic Council could theoretically become a platform where participants could exchange relevant signals about demilitarization, but structural and geopolitical barriers make this unlikely, Tigran Meloyan, an analyst at the HSE Center for Interdisciplinary Arctic Studies, said in a comment to Izvestia.
Will the US get Greenland
There are also disagreements between NATO countries. Washington and Ottawa continue to have a territorial dispute over the delimitation of the maritime border in the Beaufort Sea, where experts believe large oil fields may be located. However, this old conflict has given way to a new one — the US claims to the Danish island of Greenland.
Although the idea of annexing the largest island in the world to the United States is not new, it has become relevant again after Donald Trump came to power. The Republican bluntly stated that he seeks to establish control over this territory, and not only by peaceful means.
There is already an American Pituffik military base on the island, but Washington intends to change the ownership of Greenland itself. In early 2025, US Vice President Jay Dee Vance and the son of the American leader, Donald Trump Jr., visited the island. But hopes of reaching an agreement with the local authorities did not materialize, since the inhabitants of the island are opposed to joining the United States.
Washington is not discouraged: at the end of December, Trump appointed Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry to the post of US special envoy to Greenland. And in early January, Trump said that the United States "absolutely needs Greenland," which, according to him, is surrounded by "Russian and Chinese ships." According to the Daily Mail, the head of the White House allegedly ordered the special operations command to develop an invasion plan for Greenland.
Denmark categorically refuses to sell strategically important territories to the United States — Copenhagen is seeking support from Brussels and is increasing defense spending on the island. In 2025, $6 billion was allocated for these purposes. According to media reports, the military leaders of European countries are developing a plan for a possible NATO mission in Greenland with the deployment of troops. At the same time, Denmark continues to view the United States as a guarantor of its security and strives to maintain cooperation and trust in bilateral relations.
According to Vladimir Barbin, the review of threats to Danish and international security, published in December 2025 by the country's military intelligence service, speaks only about the US interest in Greenland, but not about claims to this island. Denmark, apparently, has no idea how to fend off such a threat.
— Greenland, for its part, strives for independence and declares that it does not want to remain part of the Danish Kingdom or become part of the United States in the future. At the same time, Greenland is interested in the closest relations with the United States, especially in American investments necessary for the sustainability of the island's economy. The recently updated national security strategy of the United States, in fact, revives the Monroe doctrine, which supposedly provides for the responsibility of the United States for the situation in the Western Hemisphere. In practice, this means that Greenland belongs to the sphere of American interests. In this regard, it will not be easy to avoid contradictions between the ambitions of the United States, Greenland's desire for independence and Denmark's sovereignty over this Arctic island," the Russian Ambassador to Denmark stressed.
Washington considers Greenland an important element of strengthening national security and a kind of outpost in the Arctic against the background of growing great-power rivalry with China and Russia. Moreover, Greenland is located in the Western Hemisphere, which the US administration has given a priority place in the new National Security Strategy.
— To achieve its goals, the Trump team may resort to diplomatic and economic levers of pressure on Denmark. The American side may also launch an active information campaign to promote the agenda related to Greenland's independence," Tigran Meloyan said.
According to the expert, regular pressure can lead to the fact that at some point Denmark will be forced to make concessions, for example, to provide exclusive access to rare earth deposits, oil and gas deposits, and expand the rights of the United States to deploy additional military bases in Greenland, including missile defense and submarine tracking facilities. in the area of the Faroese-Icelandic border. By doing so, the United States will secure long-term supplies of raw materials, gain an additional route to the Arctic, and strengthen its position in the Western Hemisphere.
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