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- While the Central Bank is hitting 12: in 2026, the key rate will remain in double digits
While the Central Bank is hitting 12: in 2026, the key rate will remain in double digits
The central Bank will carefully reduce the key rate in 2026, and by the end of the year it will drop to at least 12%, follows from the consensus forecast of Izvestia. The Bank of Russia will act cautiously, despite the fact that inflation will approach the target and will be around 5% for the second year in a row, experts expect. At the same time, economic growth will remain small, around 1%, and that is mainly due to the military-industrial complex enterprises. But on the other side of the scale are the risks of a weakening ruble, a budget deficit and rising prices due to tax changes. What will happen to the mortgage and the real estate market against this background, as well as whether it is worth carrying money for deposits, is in the Izvestia article.
The key rate in 2026
At the first meeting in 2026, which will be held in February, the Central Bank will reduce the key rate by 0.5 percentage points to 15.5%, according to the Izvestia consensus forecast. It was attended by 13 analysts from major Russian banks, rating agencies and brokerage companies.
Price dynamics are still positive: at the end of last year, inflation slowed down (to 6.6% in November). But this could happen due to the fact that firms were selling off stocks before the tax changes, and price growth may accelerate from January - it cannot be ruled out that the pace will be more noticeable than in the last stage of the VAT increase (in 2019), fears Viktor Grigoriev, chief analyst at Bank Saint Petersburg. Therefore, the regulator will rely entirely on the inflation data for January.
"In our opinion, the risks are still not fully realized, which will allow the regulator to reduce the rate by 0.5 percentage points again in February while maintaining cautious signals,— believes Viktor Grigoriev.
Such a key reduction step may persist throughout 2026, predicts Vladimir Evstifeev, head of the analytical department of Zenit Bank. Judging by the consensus forecast of Izvestia, by the end of this year the rate will be in the range of 12-13% — this figure was named by nine out of 13 experts surveyed.
— In an optimistic scenario, which assumes a reduction in geopolitical tensions, we assume a reduction in the rate even to 10% by the end of 2026. In a negative scenario (increased government spending, increased labor market tensions), the rate may remain at 16%," said Igor Rapokhin, senior debt market strategist at SberCIB Investment Research.
What will be the inflation rate
The main factor that the Central Bank relies on when making decisions on the key rate is inflation. It has slowed down significantly in the past year.: according to the Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov, by the end of 2025, the price increase will be at the level of 5.6–5.7% (the results are summed up after the New Year).
In the coming year, inflation will be even lower — about 5% (with the Central Bank's target of 4%), follows from the consensus forecast of Izvestia. The main reason is the tight monetary conditions that have been in place for quite a long time, explained Pavel Biryukov, chief economist at Gazprombank. High interest rates in the economy motivate Russians to save and not take out loans — as a result, aggregate demand shrinks, which slows down price growth.
But there are also many risks that, on the contrary, will accelerate prices. Tax changes may add 1.5 percentage points to overall inflation, Pavel Biryukov said. Price increases will be possible outside of goods and services subject to a reduced VAT rate (10% remains for socially important products - basic grocery basket, children's goods, medicines and medical products), warned Anton Tabakh, chief economist of the Expert RA rating agency.
"At the same time, the accumulated rigidity of monetary conditions is sufficient to ensure that the impact of the tax factor is limited and temporary,— said Pavel Biryukov from Gazprombank.
Other one-time stories will also contribute to the price increase: the indexation of utility tariffs (in January and October) and recycling (since the beginning of the year), added Mikhail Vasiliev, chief analyst at Sovcombank.
— Inflation will also depend on the state budget. In 2025, the government failed to significantly reduce the structural deficit (1.3% of GDP), but in 2026 it is planned to reduce it to 0% of GDP. A balanced budget is a prerequisite for price stability. But achieving it will require serious efforts from the state and largely depends on factors beyond the control of the government," added Maxim Petronevich, head of the Center for Macroeconomic and Regional Analysis and Forecasting at the Rosselkhoznadzor.
The ruble exchange rate will also affect the price increase. In the baseline scenario, it is expected that it will weaken slightly, to no more than 90 rubles/$, Izvestia wrote. As a result, growth in non-food products is expected to be moderate in 2026 and not exceed the target 4%, Mikhail Vasiliev added.
The downside of a high key rate, which helps reduce inflation, is a slowdown in the economy. Against the background of tight monetary policy, GDP is expected to grow at a moderate pace in 2026 - around 1.2%, according to the Izvestia consensus forecast. Moreover, the military-industrial complex will mainly give a plus, Mikhail Vasiliev specified.
As Vladimir Putin stated at the Russia Is Calling forum, there is a complete consensus between the Central Bank and the government on the issue of economic policy. In other words, balanced GDP growth is not the last factor that is taken into account when making economic interest rate decisions.
Is it worth opening a deposit and buying an apartment in 2026
Deposits in 2026 will remain one of the most affordable and profitable tools not only for savings, but also for investing savings, said Anton Pavlov, Deputy Chairman of the Board of Absolut Bank.
Deposit rates will remain at twice the official inflation rate, he stressed. According to Mikhail Vasiliev from Sovcombank, interest on deposits in 2026 will be about 12.5% (3 percentage points lower than at the end of last year). In conditions of lower interest rates, banks will attract depositors for short periods with the highest returns, says Yuri Kravchenko, head of the Banking and Money Market Analysis Department at IC Veles Capital.
Lending by the end of 2026 will be approximately at the level of 2025 in the retail segment, Anton Pavlov from Absolut Bank expects. Borrowing rates will decrease along with the key rate, Mikhail Vasiliev agrees. At the same time, credit risks are increasing, so banks will evaluate the borrower more carefully. In this regard, it will be a little more difficult to get a loan.
In the mortgage segment, lending under the family program will be reduced against the background of new restrictions: from February 1, it will be possible to apply for one program per family, and spouses must necessarily act as co-borrowers. An increase in the rate for couples with one child is also being considered. On the other hand, against the background of lower interest rates, lending under market programs will gradually increase, Anton Pavlov believes.
According to him, prices in the real estate market will continue to rise, especially at the beginning of the year. This will be due to the fact that, in anticipation of stricter family mortgage conditions, borrowers will rush to purchase real estate at discounted rates for almost any money. The demand for secondary housing will gradually begin to increase, and with it prices will rise.
In any case, a mortgage in 2026 will remain a fairly expensive instrument on market conditions. It will be much more profitable to keep funds in a deposit at a high interest rate than to purchase an apartment with a loan at 18-20%, Anton Pavlov concluded.
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