Law to the market: Moscow assesses the potential effect of Mexican duties

Russia will make the decision to impose mirror duties on Mexican goods based on the protection of its economic interests, the Russian Embassy in Mexico City told Izvestia. Last week, the Russian Federation was included in the list of countries for which customs duties will be increased from January 1 next year. It also includes China, South Korea, Thailand, Turkey, Indonesia and India. The authorities explain the decision to raise tariffs against countries with which Mexico does not have a free trade agreement with the need to boost national production. But the expert community sees attempts to get closer to the United States and restrict the access of Chinese goods to the market. Whether Russia sells and buys a lot from Mexico is in the Izvestia article.

Why increase duties on trading partners

Starting from January 1 next year, Mexico is preparing to increase duties on goods from countries with which the Latin American state does not have free trade agreements. The decision, which, according to the authorities, is aimed at protecting the interests of local producers, was approved by the Congress on the morning of December 10 and the Senate on the evening of the same day. The only thing separating it from the law's entry into force is the signature of President Claudia Sheinbaum.

Among the countries with which Mexico does not have free trade agreements are China, Russia, South Korea, Thailand, Turkey, Indonesia and India. More than 1,400 goods from various fields are subject to duties: mechanical engineering, textile industry, household appliances, shoes, toys, furniture. The rate will vary from 20 to 35%, and in some cases it may reach up to 50%.

— The Russian side is closely monitoring changes in Mexico's tariff policy. The question of how much their possible increase will have an impact on bilateral economic relations is being assessed by our relevant departments. At the same time, Russia traditionally proceeds from the principles of reciprocity and pragmatism and will make decisions based on the protection of national economic interests and the need to maintain a constructive dialogue with the Mexican side, the Russian Embassy in Mexico told Izvestia.

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The Russian President also noted cooperation in the field of military-technical cooperation and the growth of tourist flow between the countries.

The main addressee of these duties is China, according to the expert community. Beijing is the second largest exporter of goods to Mexico after the United States. Last year, China supplied $130 billion worth of goods there, while the United States supplied $334 billion. Thus, Mexico City, by approving this law, seeks to show its loyalty to Washington to a greater extent.

"I'm pretty sure that this is the result of Mexican-American relations," says Viktor Kheifets, director of the Center for Ibero—American Studies at St. Petersburg State University. — Mexicans cannot help but take into account that a significant part of their trade and trade turnover is tied to the United States. In addition, there are Mexican families who live off transfers from relatives in the United States. Mexicans do not want to give Trump a reason to announce a revision of the USMCA (the trade agreement between the United States, Mexico and Canada. — Izvestia). Given that the trade war with China has not ended for Trump, Mexico takes the opportunity to find common ground with the United States without sacrificing other issues.

The Mexican president herself denies this relationship. At one of the traditional morning press conferences, Sheinbaum said that her country has no interest in creating a conflict with any state in the world. She stressed that Mexico respects China and has good relations with this country. The only task that the authorities set for duties is to give a boost to the national economy.

Trade between Russia and Mexico

Despite the fact that Russia is also among the countries that will be subject to Mexican tariffs from January 1, 2026, the new measure is unlikely to have a significant impact on the economy of either side.

— We do not have such a large trade turnover with Mexico that it would have a fundamental impact. It is unlikely that this will affect political relations either," says Viktor Kheifets.

According to the Bank of Mexico, in 2025, Russia accounted for only 0.0045% of Mexican exports and 0.2% of imports. The National Institute of Statistics and Geography of the Latin American country claims that in monetary terms, exports amounted to more than $21.4 million, and imports — more than $966 million.

The trade turnover, which is small compared to Mexico's other partners, is mainly due to logistical difficulties. Currently, active work is underway to create new routes.

In August, the Russian Embassy commented on the intensification of business dialogue between the two countries, as well as the growing business interest in expanding cooperation. In particular, the first Russia-Mexico business forum was organized in Mexico City in April of this year.

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Tourism may be a new promising area of cooperation between Russia and Mexico. Earlier it became known that representatives of Mexico are negotiating with two Russian airlines about the possibility of resuming direct charter flights between the countries. The Tourism Bureau also plans to open its representative office in Russia next year.

"Russia positively assesses initiatives aimed at developing tourism cooperation with Mexico, including plans to open a representative office and discuss the possible resumption of direct flights," the Russian Embassy said.

According to diplomats, the issue of restoring direct flights, however, is complex. The specific timing will depend on a combination of technical, commercial, and regulatory factors, as well as decisions by relevant agencies and air carriers on both sides.

— We are talking, in particular, about the commercial parameters of the route, taking into account the prevailing geopolitical realities, the readiness of airlines to launch it, the approval of aviation permits and slots, as well as meeting the requirements in the field of security, logistics, insurance and regulatory regulation. Only after agreeing on all these parameters and making appropriate decisions by the interested parties, a substantive discussion of the timing of the resumption of direct flights is possible," the Russian Embassy in Mexico says.

Currently, a ticket from Moscow to Mexico City with a transfer in Istanbul costs more than 100 thousand, and only one way. You need to put more than a day on the road.