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Conditional discussion: Kiev and Europe plan to bring a peaceful settlement to a standstill
The Europeans are not abandoning attempts to rewrite the plan for Ukraine without taking into account Russia's interests. The American settlement project will be in the spotlight at a meeting in Berlin on December 15, where Vladimir Zelensky and US representatives Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner have already arrived. Kiev and its European partners are likely to impose new conditions on Russia, which will only "confuse the whole picture," according to the Federation Council. At the same time, our country continues to advocate a long-term solution to the crisis. According to media reports, with the submission of Ukraine, a clause appeared in the draft peace plan on its accession to the EU before January 1, 2027. However, as Izvestia found out, this clause risks encountering resistance even within the European Union — the members of the association believe that the country does not meet the necessary requirements.
What to expect from the Berlin meeting
The next round of consultations on the Ukrainian crisis has begun in Germany. On Sunday, December 14, Vladimir Zelensky, special envoy of the US President Steve Witkoff and Donald Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner arrived in Berlin. On the same day, the Ukrainian delegation held a meeting with their American counterparts in the presence of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
The negotiations are expected to continue on December 15 with the participation of top representatives of the EU and NATO countries. The main topic of all the meetings is the same Trump peace plan that was discussed in Moscow in early December at Vladimir Putin's meeting with Witkoff and Kushner.
Russia is skeptical about the next round of consultations involving the EU and Ukraine, as they are likely to put forward new conditions for a peaceful settlement, Grigory Karasin, chairman of the Federation Council's International Affairs Committee, told Izvestia.
— I would like to hope that the meeting in Berlin will accelerate [the peace process]. But if we talk with knowledge of the case and the nature of the participants in the upcoming meeting, then there is little hope, because the incompetence of the Zelensky regime is well known. Surely everything will be devoted to how to completely confuse the whole picture of the settlement, to set some new conditions. We want a solution that would be long-term, constructive and would ensure stability for many decades to come. So far, this is from the Eurotroika (Great Britain, Germany, France. Unfortunately, it is difficult to expect the Kiev regime," he said.
At the meeting in Berlin, Kiev and European countries will try to disrupt the peace process promoted by the United States and Russia, said Vladimir Dzhabarov, first Deputy chairman of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs.
— The only way for the Kiev regime to survive is to continue fighting, because as soon as the war is over, the very population of Ukraine will ask their leaders what they have brought the country to. Therefore, I think they will slow down and torpedo the peace plan that the Americans are proposing at any cost. They will try to gain a foothold in the territories they have occupied at any cost," he stressed.
The Kremlin has already stated that Russia may not like many things about the adjusted US peace plan.
"Moscow has not yet seen the proposals of the European Union and the Ukrainian side for a peaceful settlement, but their contribution to the settlement process is unlikely to be constructive," said Presidential aide Yuri Ushakov.
He recalled that Russia had previously made its position on the peace plan very clear to the United States.
The position of the European Union and Ukraine is to disrupt any peace talks, but at the same time make the Russian Federation responsible for this, says Bogdan Bezpalko, a member of the Council on Interethnic Relations under the President of the Russian Federation.
— The meeting in Berlin will not affect the peace talks in any way. Most likely, they will say that we have achieved great success and are moving towards peace, but there will be no specifics. Even some statements that Zelensky himself made, for example, about the possibility of holding elections, are not yet supported by any specific political steps, the expert told Izvestia.
At the same time, the fact that Witkoff and Kushner, key American negotiators on Ukraine, have arrived in Berlin gives grounds for very cautious optimism that the positions of the parties have begun to converge, Andrei Kortunov, an expert at the Valdai Club, suggested in a conversation with Izvestia. In particular, Zelensky's recent statement about his readiness to refuse to join NATO in exchange for security guarantees from the United States and Europe may speak in favor of this.
"Nevertheless, it would be wrong to assume that everything will be resolved there and that these agreements will be automatically supported by Moscow," the expert noted.
He recalled that the tactics of the EU and Kiev since mid-August, after the Alaska summit, have been not to confront Trump directly, but to try to shift his position in the direction of that held by Joe Biden.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump
—We see that after every successful Russian-American meeting, Americans immediately meet with Europeans, with the Ukrainian delegation, and at these meetings they try to review the results of Russian-American cooperation, cancel something, and add something in favor of Ukraine," said Kortunov.
In this regard, the meeting in Berlin can be considered as one of the many steps towards a final settlement. On the one hand, specific points of the peace plan will be discussed, but on the other, they will have to be coordinated with Moscow.
Prospects for peace talks on Ukraine
Donald Trump's peace plan, which was published by the media in late November, included 28 points. This document became the main topic of discussion at meetings of US representatives with Moscow, Kiev and the EU. At the same time, apparently, some of its points are not satisfied with either side. So, after meeting with Witkoff on December 2, Vladimir Putin said that Russia had not agreed to several points of the peace plan, so reaching a compromise was a difficult task.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, Special Presidential Envoy Kirill Dmitriev and Foreign Policy Aide Yuri Ushakov attend a meeting with US President Donald Trump's Special envoy Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner at the Kremlin in Moscow.
Kiev was also not satisfied with some of the provisions, so they decided to rework Trump's plan there, reducing it to 20 points. According to the Ukrainian media, it stipulates Ukraine's mandatory accession to the EU by January 1, 2027, security guarantees, refusal to join NATO and holding elections not within 100 days, but "as soon as possible."
At the same time, such a position of Ukraine risks encountering resistance within the European Union, where not everyone will want to accept it into their membership due to non-compliance with the requirements, the head of the Ukraine–EU committee in the European Parliament, Pekka Toveri, told Izvestia.
— Speeding up the [EU accession] process would be possible if the fighting stopped. This is impossible during the war. But even after the cease-fire, these deadlines would be very tight. I am not sure that Ukraine would be able to fulfill all the requirements," he said.
Earlier, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said that the European Union would not be able to accept Ukraine as part of its membership, since the level of corruption in it is one of the highest in the world. Thus, it is obvious that the key points of the peace plan will still be discussed by all parties, because at the moment there is no consensus.
One of the main problem points was the issue of territories, in connection with which Donald Trump compared the peace plan for Ukraine with a "complicated real estate deal."
The prospects for a peaceful settlement will depend on how much Kiev and Moscow are willing to show flexibility and make concessions, which is hardly mentioned in the public field, Andrei Kortunov believes.
— If, relatively speaking, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are on the verge of collapse, then, of course, this is an incentive to take a more flexible position. And if the Ukrainian Armed Forces, on the contrary, are now preparing some kind of counteroffensive (which, in general, is unlikely, but it cannot be completely ruled out), then Kiev's negotiating positions will probably be somewhat different, the expert argues.
Further progress on the Ukrainian settlement will depend more on the results on the battlefield than on the outcome of diplomatic meetings, Bogdan Bezpalko believes. In his opinion, the fighting may continue at least until the middle of summer.
— We release 400-500 square kilometers per month. That is, in six months it will be 3 thousand square kilometers. In this case, it will be a forceful argument. As for diplomacy, it can go in parallel, with pauses or, conversely, with some outbreaks of activity," he said.
Nevertheless, if we compare the situation at the moment with what it was six months ago, then progress in the peace talks is visible, says Andrei Kortunov. Now specific issues have been discussed with a certain level of detail, which was not the case before, and this leaves hope for a diplomatic settlement of the conflict.
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