The price gap between new buildings and secondary housing has reached 84%
The price gap for new and finished apartments has reached 84%. In the third quarter of this year, such an indicator was in Central Russia, follows from the data of the Central Bank, which was analyzed by Izvestia. Due to the acceleration of prices for primary housing, mortgages are becoming less affordable for Russians — even under the family program it is difficult to buy real estate, because the initial payment now averages 29%. At the same time, the imbalance can be corrected only with an increase in the price of secondary goods — it can add value as early as 2026. How the housing market will change next year is in the Izvestia article.
Why is the price gap between primary and secondary housing growing?
The average cost per square meter in new buildings in the Central Federal District (CFD) has almost reached 300 thousand rubles. This is 84% more than in the secondary market, where the price in the third quarter of this year was 163 thousand rubles. This follows from the data of the Central Bank, which was studied by Izvestia. At the same time, the average price gap across Russia has reached 61% — it is growing against the background of an increasing rise in the cost of new buildings.
According to the regulator, about 76% of all mortgage loans in October 2025 accounted for government support programs. Mostly Russians arranged a family one. Its disbursements increased by 21.5% over the month and reached 329 billion rubles.
The volume of housing loans issued at market rates jumped by 30%, to 120 billion rubles, but it still occupies a smaller part of the market. Almost all of the demand supported by government programs goes to new buildings, which allows developers to keep the price tag high, explained Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global.
At the same time, it is difficult for developers to reduce the cost of real estate in principle. The project financing model continues to work on the market, which means that before the housing is put into operation, the developer cannot receive the money of shareholders, which is stored in special escrow accounts. Therefore, they have to build houses with credit funds — lower prices for facilities in this case can greatly reduce the profitability of construction.
And the payback for developers is already decreasing — the price increase is also affected by the rise in the cost of building materials, said Evgeny Shavnev, CEO of Flip, an investment company in the real estate market. According to him, in 2026, their prices may increase by another 30-40%, so the trend is quite capable of strengthening.
In addition, it is important to understand that new buildings are fresh projects in large cities, often with finishes and modern infrastructure, explained Vladimir Chernov. The secondary market usually has a lot of old stock and "dead" apartments, which distorts statistics.
Representatives of Sberbank's Domclick service also drew attention to this — the Central Bank includes Soviet-built houses in the assessment of the secondary market, the share of the supply of which exceeds 60%. The difference in the price of primary housing and houses built over the past 10 years is 5%, they say. At the same time, according to the estimates of the company "Floors", the gap is about 22%, said a representative of the organization.
This means that after the sale, primary housing does not become cheaper by 60-80% at once — this is also confirmed by data from the main aggregators of real estate prices. The cost of apartments in new buildings on the secondary market may differ from new buildings in the same area and with the same parameters by 5-10%.
What problems does the rising cost of housing create?
Nevertheless, the price gap in the real estate market indicates structural problems, said Oleg Abelev, head of the analytical department at the Rikom-Trust investment company. To rectify the situation, it is important to stimulate supply in the secondary market.
The price gap began to grow in 2020 as a result of the launch of an unlisted preferential mortgage program, which created a competitive advantage for new buildings, the Domclick service recalled. It was available to all Russians and was in demand after the growth of the key in 2022.
— With a reduction in the rate, the competitiveness of the secondary market will grow, respectively, the price gap currently observed will decrease, — concluded representatives of the Sberbank service.
At the same time, despite the growth in real incomes of the population and the reduction in the key interest rate, housing affordability is still low: buying real estate without using preferential instruments is difficult for most people, said Laura Kuznetsova, managing expert at the PSB Center for Analytics and Expertise. There is also the problem of making a down payment, which is a serious obstacle for many people.
The higher the housing prices, the higher the initial payment the client will have to pay when applying for a housing loan. Under preferential programs, it reaches 29%. To buy a 40—square-meter apartment in the Central Federal District, a person will have to immediately bring about 3.5 million rubles to the bank - a year ago this amount was 27% less and amounted to about 2.7 million rubles.
At the same time, without a sufficient initial payment, the client is likely to face the bank's refusal, concluded Valery Tumin, Director of Russian and CIS Markets at fam Properties. If it is less than 20%, only 3% of borrowers receive approval, so it is important to maximize it.
The average monthly payment in the Russian Federation since the middle of 2024 has been fluctuating at the level of 35-40 thousand rubles per month, and in Moscow it does not exceed 100 thousand per month, Domclick recalled.
Nevertheless, the situation may start to change next year — the rate on the most massive family mortgage is planned to be raised to 12% for couples with one child. Then, for this group of the population, the monthly payment on a new mortgage will increase by more than one and a half times.
When will secondary housing start to become more expensive
It would seem that the reduction in the key rate from 21 to 16.5% has not fundamentally changed the situation in the housing market. Interest rates on market mortgages are still at a barrier level — above 20%. The overpayment on such a loan for an average term of 27 years will almost triple the initial cost of housing. However, mortgage loans under the basic programs of banks jumped by almost a third in the third quarter due to the softening of the regulator's policy.
"This means a return of some of the demand for conventional mortgages and a gradual revival of the secondary market,— said Vladimir Chernov from Freedom Finance Global.
In the future, this may lead to an increase in prices for ready—made housing - it may start from 5-7% in the first half of 2026, and then accelerate, said Evgeny Shavnev from Flip.
In the baseline scenario, the key rate may drop to the range of 7.5–8.5% by 2027, Vladimir Chernov noted. In this case, market mortgage rates could return to the 10-12% per annum range, which many Russians would consider acceptable. As a result, the pent-up demand for mortgages is being realized, and apartment prices will accelerate.
The beginning of the key rate reduction cycle is a good time to buy secondary real estate. However, the market is currently experiencing a crisis of trust on the part of customers due to the spread of the "pension scheme", when former homeowners dispute the sale through the courts, citing the influence of fraudsters, said Kristina Gudym, an analyst at Finam Financial Group. Nevertheless, the authorities are already working on mechanisms to eliminate this problem, Anatoly Aksakov, head of the State Duma Committee on Financial Markets, told Izvestia.
In addition, there is a risk that as inflation accelerates, the Central Bank will begin to reduce its key rate more slowly. Everything will depend on the operational data and the market situation.
The adjustment of the family mortgage, which will take place during 2026, will be able to finally reverse the trend towards a growing gap in prices for primary and secondary housing. According to Domclick estimates, an increase in the program rate to 12% for families with one child may deprive about 2.7 million families of a preferential rate. This can have a significant impact on the issuance of loans under the most massive government program.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
