Plans forever: The EU is ready to introduce at least three sets of sanctions in 2026.
Despite attempts to coordinate Trump's peace plan, the EU is still working on new anti-Russian sanctions, the European Commission told Izvestia. At the same time, the European Parliament clarified that at least three new packages may be adopted in 2026. This will happen if it is not possible to achieve an end to the Ukrainian conflict. However, the EU's willingness to tighten sanctions is not related to the crisis in Ukraine, but to the desire to contain a competitor in the face of the Russian Federation, experts believe. The European Union uses restrictions as a tool of direct struggle against Russia. Although the failure of the EU's sanctions policy is being recorded even in the United States. About why Europe's anti—Russian restrictions have exhausted their potential is in the Izvestia article.
New EU sanctions against Russia
In the original version of the US peace plan for Ukraine, there was a clause that concerned the gradual lifting of sanctions against the Russian Federation. It is unknown whether it remains in the new version of the document agreed upon by the US and Ukrainian delegations in Geneva. But despite the fact that the Ukrainian settlement may get off the ground, Brussels is not going to change its approach to sanctions policy yet.
"Of course, the EU still intends to work on further sanctions until President Putin sits down at the negotiating table," the European Commission told Izvestia.
The probability of introducing new anti-Russian restrictions next year is quite high, the European Parliament clarified.
— It is difficult to predict the exact number of sanctions packages, as it depends on Russia's behavior and the international security situation. However, if the conflict persists at the current level or intensifies, the adoption of several additional packages is quite possible," Tomasz Zdechowski, a member of the European Parliament from the European People's Party, told Izvestia.
According to him, the EU will be able to approve at least three new sanctions packages in 2026.
— The EU has demonstrated its ability to respond quickly if necessary, and in recent years has conducted several major sanctions rounds in a short time. If circumstances require it, the introduction of three or more packages in 2026 is a realistic scenario," he said.
It can be assumed that the EU will try to prepare new sanctions by February 24, the anniversary of its independence. Earlier, Politico reported that the EU will begin developing the 20th package of sanctions early next year. The European Commission reported that the restrictions will be aimed at limiting Russia's income from energy exports and the so-called "shadow fleet."
However, Russia has repeatedly made it clear that it does not intend to make decisions on Ukraine under pressure from the West. The sanctions did not have the desired effect, as they did not deal a crushing blow to the Russian economy, Vladimir Putin noted earlier. The United States also pointed out the futility of EU sanctions. In a recent interview, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant unexpectedly admitted that 19 restrictive measures packages failed to change Russia's position.
- The Europeans tell me: "Oh, we accept the 19th package of sanctions." In my opinion, if you do something for the 19th time, then you have failed," he said.
Russia's negotiating position is reinforced by successes on the battlefield — the Russian armed forces maintain the strategic initiative, continuing the offensive. US Secretary of the Army Dan Driscoll said earlier that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are in a difficult situation and will soon be defeated. Russia is ramping up its attacks and can fight "indefinitely."
Why does the EU continue its sanctions policy
In Brussels, however, they ignore the arguments of the American allies. Thus, the head of European diplomacy, Kaya Kallas, said that Ukraine "does not suffer defeat at the front." In addition, the European Commission, according to Reuters and Bloomberg, recently accelerated work on proposals for using Russian assets to help Ukraine and will provide a legal justification in the coming days. Russia has repeatedly stated that it regards such a step as theft and will definitely take retaliatory measures.
In the modern information environment, almost any impact of sanctions can be declared "effective." However, experts separate the concepts of "effectiveness" and "efficiency". Effectiveness is understood as the ability of a sanctions policy to achieve the goals for which it was initiated, and the purpose of any restrictions is to force a particular state to change its political course. Effectiveness is more about the ability to inflict damage on the enemy through various measures. Global experience suggests that in most cases sanctions are ineffective — either very weak or allied states can be forced to change behavior, Evgenia Prokopchuk, an analyst at the Central Research Institute of Higher School of Economics, explained to Izvestia.
The European Union is interested in further tightening sanctions against Russia, as it sees Russia as not only a political but also an economic competitor, said Egor Sergeev, a senior researcher at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies at the Russian Foreign Ministry.
— Firstly, the sanctions superstructure, although linked to the Ukrainian conflict, reflects the EU's approaches to competition with Russia. Obviously, even without conflict, the tension in the relationship would increase. Sanctions today are not only a political tool, but also a new competitive practice," he told Izvestia.
Even after the conflict ends, the fundamental contradictions between Russia and the EU will not go away, the analyst is sure. Brussels sees sanctions as actually the only direct tool in the fight against the Russian Federation, since the EU is unable to compete with Moscow in military force.
— Thirdly, the EU lives in its own internal institutional logic, which is characterized by the self-replication of existing practices, so we can most likely expect the persistence of sanctions inertia, — said Egor Sergeev.
However, this inertia is increasingly being challenged by opponents of sanctions in Europe. The key argument is that the restrictions hit the Europeans themselves more than the Russians. Hungary holds the most consistent position here.
— The 19 packages of sanctions that have already been imposed have caused enormous damage to the European economy, and at the same time destroyed the foundation of European economic growth. Previously, the foundation of European economic growth looked like this: advanced Western technologies were combined with cheap energy resources from Russia. Today, this model has been destroyed, and no one has bothered to create something new instead," said Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto.
Slovakia, which also imports Russian energy resources, holds a similar position. New sanctions packages are becoming increasingly difficult to adopt: decisions on restrictions are periodically vetoed by countries more loyal to Kiev, in particular, Austria and Belgium. In 2022, the EU managed to impose nine sets of sanctions, while in 2025, only four. At the same time, direct sanctions against Russia seem to be starting to reach their limit — the EU is increasingly declaring the need to tighten secondary restrictions for bypassing existing ones.
"The pan—European consensus is weakening over the use of Russian assets, which threaten complete legal uncertainty and retaliation," added Evgenia Prokopchuk. — Another striking example is Slovakia's position on restrictive measures against Russian gas. Prime Minister Robert Fico lifted his veto during the negotiation of the 19th package only after guarantees from Brussels that the EU would help overcome the consequences of this step: high energy prices and reduced competitiveness.
In modern conditions, it is becoming increasingly difficult for the EU to find areas where it is possible to increase pressure on Russia without further harming its economy, Egor Sergeev noted. Nevertheless, functional logic suggests the need to maintain at least the appearance of a permanent increase in pressure, the expert summarizes.
Meanwhile, the Russian Federation is successfully mitigating the effect of Western sanctions by diversifying trade relations with dynamically developing Asian countries and other countries of the Global South.
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