Lessons from penalties: business tax debts increased 1.5 times

Tax surcharges to businesses and citizens have increased almost one and a half times — in the first nine months of 2025, they reached 443 billion rubles, according to Izvestia, according to the Federal Tax Service. This is the maximum value since 2022. This amount includes debts on fees, as well as fines and penalties that were brought as a result of inspections. The reasons for the increase are increased control over companies using illegal schemes, an increase in the Central Bank's key rate and a change in the procedure for calculating penalties. At the same time, claims against sole proprietors, private individuals, foreign companies and landlords increased. How this affects business activity and what will change in inspections in 2026 is in the Izvestia article.

What violations are most often punished by the tax service?

In the first nine months of 2025, the tax service conducted 45,000 inspections. Compared to the same period last year, their number has hardly changed, but the volume of additional payments has increased significantly. From January to September, businesses and citizens were charged 443 billion rubles, including arrears, fines and penalties — almost one and a half times more than a year earlier (311 billion). This is the maximum since 2022, it follows from the data of the Federal Tax Service (Izvestia studied them). The editors sent a request to the service.

Most of the additional charges were for on—site inspections - 350 billion rubles. The rest was added by desk, that is, remote control.

According to the Federal Tax Service, the main arrears have been identified in organizations. At the same time, the volume of claims against individuals doubled to 1.8 billion rubles, and penalties for individual entrepreneurs increased by almost 10%, reaching 6.4 billion rubles.

Most often, additional charges were made for VAT, income tax, personal income tax, simplified taxation system and insurance premiums.

The most frequent violations are unjustified underestimation of income, overstatement of expenses, the use of fictitious counterparties and schemes for the sake of deductions, said Andrei Glushkin, a member of the Council of the MRO Delovaya Rossiya.

Tax authorities also reveal business fragmentation, artificial cost overstatement, unreflected revenue, payments of "gray" salaries and the formal transfer of employees to the status of sole proprietors or self—employed - without changing the nature of work, added Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global.

Individuals are increasingly being exposed for unaccounted-for income from the sale and lease of property, foreign assets and receipts, as well as transactions with cryptocurrency, the expert continued. Additional charges are still lower here than for companies, but the growth rate is higher, as the control base is rapidly expanding due to bank data, Rosreestr information and digital traces of payments.

— The rental of real estate is now under special control. The Federal Tax Service in Moscow separately reports on billions of additional charges for property transactions — and this is only one territory. According to a similar logic, attention is being increased to apartment owners who rent housing, and to individual entrepreneurs who actually operate as medium—sized businesses, but continue to apply preferential treatment," added Vladimir Chernov.

The service is increasingly using data from banks, marketplaces, the My Taxes service and information from online sales registers. Therefore, any stable monetary path to the card without reporting becomes the basis for first a soft and then a tougher additional charge, the expert emphasized.

In 2025, a significant part of the inspections was devoted to combating unscrupulous private employment agencies, said Anton Stepanov, a partner at Kept. The remaining foreign business in Russia was also actively checked, primarily in terms of royalties and intra—group services.

Why are tax surcharges increasing?

The increase in additional charges is partly due to inflation, but largely due to the increased efficiency of the tax service, Anton Stepanov noted. An additional factor could be the acceleration of the inspections themselves: if a few years ago field control, taking into account suspensions and extensions, took 9-12 months, now it fits into 6-9.

In addition, in 2025, the procedure for calculating penalties for late payment of taxes has changed. They are accrued for each day of delay. Since this year, the temporary mechanism has ceased to operate, according to which the penalty was considered at a fixed rate — 1/300 of the key per day, said Evgenia Sabitova, a member of the Union of Lawyers and Bloggers. Instead, a differentiated approach has appeared: for the first 30 days, the 1/300 rate is maintained, from the 31st to the 90th day, 1/150 is applied, and after that, 1/300 is applied again. That is, if the delay is longer than a month, the penalty amount doubles.

An additional impact was provided by the growth of the key one, on which the amount of the penalty depends. Last year, the Central Bank raised it from 16 to 21% and only in June 2025 began to reduce it - now the rate is 16.5%.

— The increase by 40%, to 441 billion rubles, is the result of digital control, enhanced analytics of the Federal Tax Service and focus on budget discipline. Improved control makes inspections more targeted and effective: inspectors analyze bank transactions, digital settlements and select for verification exactly those cases where the risks of violations are highest," explained Andrey Shubin, Executive Director of Opora Russia.

The increase in additional charges is also due to the fact that inspectors are increasingly able to identify violations already at the stage of pre-verification analysis, rather than based on the results of the audit. As a result, taxpayers often prefer to voluntarily pay the arrears immediately after they are made aware of the identified risks. Therefore, more and more funds are being returned to the budget even before the end of the control measures, said Alexey Krylov, expert of the CCI Council on Financial, Industrial and investment policy, tax consultant.

Another reason was the increase in violations themselves on the part of businesses, which, in conditions of increased tax burden and declining profits, are increasingly trying to avoid payments, added Valeria Starodubova, a member of the Russian Bar Association.

How does increased control affect business

The probability that the increase in additional charges will continue remains high, as the government continues to develop analytical tools and seeks to streamline the tax base, said Andrey Glushkin from the MRO Delovaya Rossiya. At the same time, a more transparent and predictable environment is being formed, which makes it easier for businesses to plan costs. If the pace remains the same, the final figures for 2025 may rise to 580-600 billion, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe.

At the same time, in a tougher scenario, the target could reach 650 billion, according to Vladimir Chernov of Freedom Finance Global. This is possible with increased pressure on problematic industries and the active use of new accrual rules — in particular, if the Central Bank's rate remains high. The most aggressive growth rates of additional charges are likely to continue for another one or two years, the analyst noted. Then, as the obvious patterns are washed out, the dynamics will slow down, but a high level of control and selective point operations will become the new norm, he added.

Now the authorities have become more in control of business. For example, starting from January 1, 2026, the Federal Tax Service will begin receiving more data on bank transfers. Credit institutions will inform to whom corporate and electronic means of payment have been issued or withdrawn. The order of information exchange between the financial organization and the tax service is also changing, as well as the rules for taxation of banking transactions. Because of this, the fees for clients are likely to increase.

The government is also currently preparing solutions to reduce the shadow sector in the economy, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on November 25. According to him, this will affect the income generation of the Social Fund, including the Compulsory Health Insurance Fund. In addition, the head of the Ministry of Finance noted on November 21 that the country's shadow economy accounts for about 10% of GDP, and its reduction is one of the most important tasks of the Federal Tax Service.

Earlier it was reported that the Moscow service began actively checking unemployed citizens to understand where their money came from. Tax authorities are trying to find examples of illegal labor relations and undeclared income.

For businesses, increased control means increased costs by several criteria at once, says Vladimir Chernov. He added: we are talking about direct surcharges, penalties and fines, as well as the need to pay for consultants and argue more often in the courts. For many companies, additional charges create cash gaps and force them to postpone investments in order to repay claims. However, on the other hand, strict control is gradually leveling the competitive field, the expert believes.

Nevertheless, the expert continued, the overall effect on the business climate will be rather constraining. Businesses are becoming more cautious — they prefer conservative solutions and risk minimization rather than development. According to lawyer Evgenia Sabitova, stricter controls will inevitably lead to the closure of some companies that will not be able to meet all the requirements and pay the necessary fees. At the same time, the tax amnesty, which was introduced in 2025 for fragmentation (if the company voluntarily abandons the illegal scheme this year), on the contrary, will reduce the number of disputes with tax authorities.

At the same time, companies to which the tax service has questions should not avoid interaction, but actively defend their position by providing explanations and evidence so as not to bring the case to the appointment of an on-site inspection, said Anton Stepanov, a partner at Kept. Federal Tax Service statistics show that there are practically no inspections without additional charges.