Assault warning: Russia sees risks of new war in Lebanon

An explosive situation is developing in southern Lebanon, Russian Ambassador to Beirut Alexander Rudakov told Izvestia. The Russian Federation admits the possibility of a resumption of large-scale fighting in the south of the republic. The diplomat noted that, despite the truce, Israel violates Lebanese airspace almost daily and attacks its territory. The head of the Russian diplomatic mission added: Hezbollah is ready to transfer weapons to the state, but not under fire. The IDF told Izvestia that the Shiite movement is rebuilding military infrastructure, smuggling weapons and creating production facilities for the production of weapons in Lebanon.

Lebanon strictly adheres to the terms of the truce

The situation in southern Lebanon is heating up, Russian Ambassador to Beirut Alexander Rudakov told Izvestia. Moscow admits the possibility of resuming large-scale hostilities, despite the truce reached with American mediation between Israel and Lebanon in November 2024.

— Relations between these two states have remained tense for many years, to put it mildly. Israel, under the pretext of ensuring its own security, regularly invades Lebanese airspace and conducts attacks with human casualties on an almost daily basis. The IDF units continue to occupy a number of territories in the south of the republic," Rudakov said.

Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem said on November 11 that Israel's strikes "cannot continue indefinitely." He stressed that the truce applies only to southern Lebanon, and the disarmament of the movement should not affect areas north of the Litani River. At the same time, Qassem confirmed that Hezbollah is not going to lay down its weapons, which, according to him, are necessary for the defense of the country.

Drone collider: Israel accused Hezbollah of stockpiling UAVs

How high is the risk of a repeat war on the border with Lebanon

The Russian ambassador stressed that Lebanon strictly adheres to the terms of the truce: over the past year, not a single shell has been fired from its side. However, recently there has been an increase in Israeli airstrikes. In addition to human casualties, they lead to the destruction of civilian infrastructure and prevent tens of thousands of residents of southern Lebanon from returning to rebuilding homes and farms.

— We regard such measures as an attempt to exert additional harsh pressure on the Lebanese government in order to disarm Hezbollah and cut off the flow of funding for its activities. The leadership of the Shiite movement has repeatedly confirmed both its commitment to the terms of the truce and its willingness to give up weapons in favor of the state. However, they refuse to do this under fire when the daily killings of representatives of this part of Lebanese society continue," the ambassador stressed.

The recent examples of bloody ethnic cleansing in areas densely populated by Syrian Alawites and Druze in Syria do not contribute to the desire to lay down their arms, Alexander Rudakov said. According to him, a way out of the crisis is possible only through strict compliance with UN Security Council Resolution 1701 by all parties to the conflict, not just the Lebanese.

Israel continues to put pressure on the Lebanese authorities

The IDF press service told Izvestia that since the agreements came into force, as well as currently, the Israeli military has been recording Hezbollah's efforts to restore its military capabilities, which, according to them, was a violation of the conditions agreed between Israel and Lebanon.

"Hezbollah's main efforts are aimed at restoring military power, resuming military infrastructure, smuggling weapons and creating production facilities for weapons in Lebanon," the IDF said.

The army added that it is taking the necessary measures against these attempts to ensure the safety of Israeli citizens.

At the same time, the pressure on the Lebanese authorities to more actively disarm the Shiite movement continues. The Lebanese army says it is possible to declare the south of the country free of Hezbollah weapons by the end of 2025, but it does not want to conduct searches of private homes. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned on November 2 that he would not allow Hezbollah to rearm.

In recent weeks, the IDF has expanded its strikes to include operations in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley. The Lebanese authorities estimated that in less than a year, 309 people were killed and 598 injured in attacks, and the number of ceasefire violations exceeded 5,000.

According to Jamal Wakim, a professor at the Lebanese University, Israel's increasing pressure is aimed at forcing Lebanon to start direct negotiations with the Jewish state, which, according to him, Washington is seeking.

The expert noted in an interview with Izvestia that although Hezbollah retains a significant deterrent potential, the likelihood of a full-scale war remains.

Clouds are gathering: Israel has promised Lebanon a new war

Hezbollah's refusal to disarm could lead to a new IDF operation.

On September 5, the Lebanese government reviewed a plan proposed by the army to establish a state monopoly on gun ownership until the end of 2025. The plan provides for the phased disarmament of all formations, including Hezbollah. The Cabinet of Ministers hopes to reach an agreement with the movement in order to avoid the risk of a new civil war. However, disputes have already flared up inside the government: representatives of Hezbollah called the initiative a gross mistake. The organization's Secretary General, Naim Kasem, stressed that weapons are necessary to protect the country from Israeli aggression and the organization will act "as if no decisions have been made."

In public statements, Hezbollah rejects any attempts to involve the country in new negotiation formats that, according to the movement, may serve Israel's interests. The organization defends the right to "resist occupation" and stated that the issue of its armament cannot be the subject of external pressure.

At the same time, the United States is increasing pressure on Beirut. The American special representative for the Syrian dossier, Tom Barrack, questioned the ability of the Lebanese leadership to regain control of the country. Representatives of the US Treasury insist on cutting off the channels of financing Hezbollah and eliminating the cash payment system, which, in their opinion, are used to restore military infrastructure.

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said the country abides by international anti-money laundering procedures and called on the United States to influence Israel to stop the escalation.

The situation in southern Lebanon remains extremely tense. Israel's actions, Hezbollah's attempts to retain weapons, and pressure from the United States are creating a situation that could lead to a new round of violence. Diplomatic efforts are focused on indirect negotiations through the five-party committee (Lebanon, Israel, the United States, France, and the United Nations). It is headed by the United States, and France acts as a co-curator. The UK and Germany have also sent observers to monitor the violations.